أثناء مراسم استقبال الرئيس الإيراني مسعود بزشكيان لرئيس الوزراء العراقي #علي_الزيدي بطهران اليوم، قام #الحرس_الثوري الإيراني بتوجيه مسيرات لمركز العبدلي الحدودي الكويتي بين #الكويت و #العراق عبر ميليشيات أولياء الدم التابعة للحرس الثوري الإيراني والمنضوية تحت ميليشيات #الحشد_الشعبي لإيصال 3 رسائل:
-نحن من يحكم إيران وليس بزشكيان.
-نحن من يحكم العراق وليس الزيدي.
-رسالة إهانة وتأديب وغضب على زيارة الزيدي لأمريكا ولقاء #ترامب قبل زيارة طهران حيث العاصمة التي تحكم العراق وتتحكم بقراراته بالحرب والسلم. أما اتفاقياتك مع الأمريكان ومذكرات التفاهم والاستثمار التي وقعتها معها بواشنطن، "فنقّعها واشرب مايها".
#وافهم_يا_فهيم
Below is a translation of my latest article:
Iran Between the Choice of Poison and the Choice of Suicide
Iran is experiencing an unprecedented state of suffocation in its modern history. A review of the current Iranian stage provides a clearer picture of the predicament confronting the ruling clerical establishment in Tehran. Let us then place ourselves in the position of Iran's decision-maker—assuming that there is a single decision-maker left in Tehran. The situation can be summarized as follows:
A comprehensive naval, air, and even land blockade has deepened an already crippling economic crisis, affecting every aspect of life for the suffering Iranian people.
Iran's supply routes and logistical lifelines to the outside world have been systematically disrupted.
Historic religious, political, and military leaders—including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—were eliminated at the outset of the war, creating a an acute vacuum of power, severe collapse in morale, psychological trauma, confusion in decision-making, and the mysterious disappearance of the Supreme Leader's presumed successor, his son Mojtaba Khamenei.
Public frustration has reached unprecedented levels due to war, poverty, deprivation, failing basic services, the absence of personal freedoms, and the enforcement of rigid religious laws that are increasingly incompatible with the more open social culture of most Iranians.
Iran's Persian-Shiite political project has suffered a devastating strategic setback as its regional proxies have been systematically dismantled. The first major blow came with the fall of its most important ally in Syria and Bashar al-Assad's flight to Moscow. Syria had been the crown jewel of Iran's regional project and the heart of its ambitious "Shiite Crescent" extending through Iraq and the Levant.
Iran's access to its most important regional proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, has been severely disrupted. Hezbollah has suffered devastating military blows, lost much of its senior leadership, and seen much of its traditional Shiite support base in southern Lebanon turn against it after the displacement of their communities and the destruction of their towns, villages, and livelihoods. The recent seizure by Syrian security forces of weapons shipments hidden inside fuel tankers and food trucks on the Iraqi-Syrian border—destined for Hezbollah—provides compelling evidence of the isolation now facing Iran's most loyal and powerful regional ally.
Iran has also lost its dominance over Lebanon as the country's legitimate political leadership—the presidency and the prime ministry—has increasingly asserted its independence and turned toward Washington in pursuit of a peace agreement with Israel, paying little attention to Hezbollah's rhetoric or political agenda.
The Houthi movement has thus far hesitated to fully close the Bab al-Mandab Strait despite repeated Iranian appeals to do so in an effort to ease pressure on Tehran.
Signs of growing Iraqi independence are emerging under the new Prime Minister, Ali Al-Zaidi, whose government appears increasingly willing to distance itself from Iranian influence. His visit to Washington, meeting with President Donald Trump, and the signing of economic agreements worth billions of dollars signal a significant shift. Notably, the Iraqi government's anti-corruption campaign targeting several lower-level officials prior to the visit was widely interpreted as a gesture of seriousness in confronting corruption and reducing Iranian influence over Iraq.
Iran has failed to justify or successfully market its attacks against the Arab Gulf countries are intended solely to the American military bases in the Gulf. At the same time, Gulf states have demonstrated remarkable defensive capabilities, successfully intercepting the overwhelming majority of Iranian missiles and drones while defending their sovereignty.
Iran's attempt to pressure Kuwait and Bahrain into submitting to its demands has also failed. The statement issued last week by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps addressing the "honorable and noble people of Kuwait" appeared to be a desperate attempt to encourage Kuwaitis to rebel against their own country, reject its laws, and expel American military bases that had already been largely evacuated of U.S. personnel before the outbreak of the war.
The United States has now conducted eight consecutive nights of military operations, averaging approximately two hundred airstrikes each night, inflicting mounting losses on Iranian personnel and equipment. Iran is struggling to absorb attacks carried out solely by the United States while recognizing that Israel remains poised to resume military operations. Should Israeli strikes recommence, Tehran understands they are likely to be even more painful and more precise given Israel's extensive intelligence capabilities within Iran's governing establishment.
Tehran also fears retaliating directly against American warships and aircraft carriers operating off the Iranian coast. The death of two American soldiers at a base in Jordan two days ago triggered the largest and most intense American bombardment of the war during the eighth consecutive night of strikes. If Iran were to attack a U.S. frigate or aircraft carrier and kill dozens of American personnel, the resulting American response would likely be far more devastating. To date, the United States has lost only sixteen servicemen and women since the war began.
Iran has failed in its efforts to drag the Gulf states into a full-scale regional war that might have reshuffled the strategic landscape and spread destruction across the region.
Tehran's expectation that President Donald Trump would hesitate to escalate the conflict—because of congressional midterm elections, the FIFA World Cup, or concerns over rising oil and energy prices—has also proven mistaken.
China has avoided providing meaningful support, unwilling to risk an indirect confrontation with the United States, while Russia remains preoccupied by its war in Ukraine and the continuing military and economic pressure exerted by Europe.
Given these circumstances, maintaining the current course amounts to a slow death for both the Iranian regime and the Iranian state itself. Iran's recent shift toward targeting civilian infrastructure in Gulf countries—particularly Kuwaiti oil refineries, desalination plants, and power stations—reflects not strength, but rather the depth of its desperation, exhaustion, and strategic bankruptcy.
What options, then, remain available to Iran under conditions that have become impossible to sustain?
There are only two.
The first is to drink the chalice of poison, just as Ayatollah Khomeini did when he accepted the ceasefire ending the Iran-Iraq War in 1988 after stubbornly refusing to do so for eight years. In today's context, this would mean accepting American demands—not by literally raising a white flag, but by announcing a willingness to return to the negotiating table. Those negotiations were rejected by “the ghostly” new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei—or, more precisely, by a statement attributed to him on Saturday, July 19. An earlier statement attributed to him had expressed dissatisfaction with the memorandum of understanding signed with the United States, which has since collapsed, while indicating he would reluctantly accept it at the request of lame-ducked President Masoud Pezeshkian. Therefore, if Iran now returns to negotiations after publicly rejecting them, such a move would amount to an implicit surrender following devastating military blows and an increasingly suffocating naval, air, and land blockade.
The second option is even more poisonous and bitter: suicide.
That would involve Iran committing the reckless mistake of invading one of its Gulf neighbors, occupying part or all of its territory, and attempting to use that occupation as leverage to force an end to the blockade.
Such an action would face six Gulf armies standing on full alert, equipped with modern air forces that Iran simply does not possess. They would also possess the determination and resolve demonstrated during the 1991 liberation of Kuwait, tested again in the liberation of southern Yemen and much of the north, proven during the defeat of Iran's attempted coup in Bahrain in 2011, and continuously displayed in successfully intercepting Iranian missiles and drones with exceptional effectiveness.
Which of these two paths will Iran choose?
Time is not on its side. The survival of the regime appears increasingly unlikely unless it either drinks the poison of surrender or embraces the path of self-destruction.
مجلس التعاون الخليجي في بيان رسمي:
أعرب معالي الأستاذ جاسم محمد البديوي، الأمين العام لمجلس التعاون لدول الخليج العربية، عن إدانته واستنكاره بأشد العبارات للتصريحات الصادرة عن المتحدث العسكري لجماعة الحوثي، وما تضمنته من مزاعم باطلة بحق المملكة العربية السعودية، واتهامات لا تستند إلى أي أساس، في محاولة بائسة ومكشوفة لتشويه الحقائق والتنصل من المسؤولية عن الممارسات التي تنتهجها الجماعة، والتي أسهمت في تعميق معاناة الشعب اليمني، وتهديد أمن المنطقة واستقرارها.
وأكد معاليه، أن هذه التصريحات الغير مسؤولة لن تغير من الحقائق الراسخة، وفي مقدمتها جهود المملكة العربية السعودية المخلصة لدعم الشعب اليمني، والإسهام في تحقيق الأمن والاستقرار، ودفع مسار الحل السياسي، وتقديم المساعدات الإنسانية والإغاثية، انطلاقاً من مسؤوليتها تجاه اليمن وشعبه.
كما شدد معالي الأمين العام، على أن أمن الملاحة البحرية وحرية التجارة الدولية يمثلان ركيزة أساسية للأمن والاستقرار الإقليمي والدولي، وأن أي محاولات لاستهداف الممرات المائية الدولية تعد مخالفة صريحة للقانون الدولي، ولأحكام اتفاقية الأمم المتحدة لقانون البحار، ولقرارات مجلس الأمن ذات الصلة.
ودعا معاليه، المجتمع الدولي إلى اتخاذ موقف حازم تجاه هذه الادعاءات والتهديدات الحوثية الباطلة، والعمل على تنفيذ قرارات مجلس الأمن، بما يكفل حماية الملاحة البحرية، ومنع أي ممارسات تعرض أمن الممرات البحرية الدولية للخطر.
وجدد معالي الأمين العام، على وقوف مجلس التعاون الكامل إلى جانب المملكة العربية السعودية، ودعمه لكل ما تتخذه من إجراءات لحماية أمنها وسيادتها وصون مصالحها.
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