Haatch Pulse

Delivering timely industry news, trends & insights from UK Venture Capital. Powered by @haatch.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

UK venture has a coverage problem.

Rounds get reported after they've already closed, regulatory shifts get explained after they've moved markets, and the founder stories that actually predict the next cycle rarely make it into the press at all.

Starting now, we want to change that.

Haatch is a UK pre-seed VC fund. We've spent over a decade backing founders at day zero, and so much of what we see day-to-day never reaches anyone outside the people at the term sheet. After years of learning from the front row, it's time to share the view.

So if we haven't met yet, we're Haatch, and we:

• Run one of the UK's most active pre-seed funds, recently ranked among the top 20 in Europe, with 150+ portfolio companies and a combined valuation north of £1bn.

• Write the largest pre-seed & seed cheques in British B2B SaaS, often as the first cheque a UK founder ever takes.

• Have backed companies that have exited at multiples ranging from 6.5x to 276x, which reminds us every time why pre-seed is the most consequential layer of venture.

Haatch Pulse is the open window into that view. Real-time intelligence on UK early-stage venture, with the analysis the wire-service version leaves out.

Follow @HaatchPulse for the daily signal.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...drained to keep the world's second-biggest economy running without paying crisis prices.

For over a year before the first strikes on Iran, China was buying roughly a million barrels a day more than it could use. Nobody noticed, because China doesn't publish inventory figures. Analysts had to reverse-engineer the numbers from import and refinery data. The estimate: around 1 billion barrels quietly sitting in storage.

That stockpile is now acting as a pressure valve for the entire global oil market. Without it, analysts believe Brent crude would already be far higher, and every petrol station in Europe and the US would be reflecting a war premium that most drivers haven't felt yet.

Here's the catch. That buffer won't last indefinitely, and Beijing won't let it run dry. The moment China starts buying on the open market again to rebuild reserves, the demand shock that's been delayed hits all at once. Several analysts are pointing to July as the month the full weight of the supply disruption starts showing up in prices.

The painful irony: the same stockpile that analysts flagged last year as a reason oil prices would stay low is now the only thing stopping a genuine price spike. It bought the world time. How much time is the question.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. We built Pulse to track the macro events that move markets. Follow @HaatchPulse for daily updates on the stories that matter.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

BREAKING:

China's oil imports collapsed from 11.4 million barrels a day to just 6.4 million since the Iran war began.

The reason prices haven't already hit $150 a barrel is a secret stockpile that's now being quietly...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...the continent's money is flowing right now.

Romania shares a border with Ukraine. It's one of NATO's eastern frontline states, and it's been under pressure to modernise its military for years. This deal suggests that pressure has finally turned into action.

€5.7 billion is not a procurement order. It's a strategic signal. Romania is betting heavily on a security environment that doesn't improve anytime soon.

The hidden winner here is Germany's defense industrial base. Rheinmetall has gone from a quiet manufacturer to one of Europe's most consequential companies in under three years. Its order book is now overflowing at exactly the moment European governments have stopped debating rearmament and started funding it.

Every NATO country watching this will feel pressure to move faster on its own military spending commitments. Romania just set a new benchmark for what 'serious' looks like.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. Pulse is how we track what's moving global markets every day. Follow @HaatchPulse to get these before everyone else.
https://t.co/8pnlwB78RX

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

THIS IS HUGE:

Rheinmetall, Germany's biggest weapons maker, just landed €5.7 billion in military contracts from Romania.

This is one of the largest single defense deals in European history, and it tells you exactly where...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...relies on stable borrowing costs, a strong dollar, or a government that can fund itself cheaply.

US Treasuries have been the world's reserve asset of choice since Bretton Woods in 1944. The idea was simple: America's debt was the safest place on earth to park money. That assumption just broke.

The ECB's confirmation that gold has taken the top spot reflects a structural shift in how the world's central banks are allocating reserves. They've been quietly buying gold for years. Now the tally shows it.

The second-order effect matters enormously. When central banks buy less US debt, America has to offer higher yields to attract buyers elsewhere. Higher yields on government debt push up borrowing costs across the entire economy. Mortgages, business loans, credit cards. All of it.

This isn't a sudden crash. It's a slow rebalancing with very long roots, accelerated by sanctions, dollar weaponisation, and a decade of US deficit spending that shows no sign of slowing. The ECB naming it publicly is the signal that the shift is now too large to ignore.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. We created Pulse to make sense of the global events that affect your money. Follow @HaatchPulse for daily takes that cut through the noise.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

CONFIRMED:

The ECB just declared gold the world's top reserve asset, officially overtaking US Treasuries.

For the first time in modern history, central banks are trusting gold over American debt, and the reason why should concern anyone who...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...the reason governments couldn't act faster. Now that constraint is gone.

For years, EU budget rules capped how much member states could borrow and spend, full stop. Energy was treated the same as any other line item. The crisis exposed how badly that framework aged.

The hidden winner here is every household in a country whose government was previously blocked from subsidising energy costs or funding grid upgrades. Spain, Italy, Germany, Poland, all now have more room to move.

The contradiction worth watching: relaxing fiscal rules during a period of elevated debt levels across Europe is exactly the kind of move that bond markets get nervous about. The last time the EU suspended budget constraints was during Covid, and it took years to agree on how to unwind it.

The second-order effect is slower to arrive but more lasting. More government money chasing renewables, grid infrastructure, and domestic energy production means Europe is quietly accelerating the shift away from the Russian gas dependency that made the last two winters so politically painful.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund, and Pulse is our daily lens on the macro events shaping markets. Follow @HaatchPulse so you never miss one.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

BREAKING:

The EU just loosened its own spending rules to let governments pour more money into energy.

If your energy bill has felt untouchable, that fiscal straitjacket was part of...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...everyone filling up at the pump, not just in America but across the markets that depend on that supply staying affordable.

This is the core tension in Western sanctions policy right now. The tools exist to hit Russia harder on oil. The political will exists too. What's missing is a clean way to do it without the pain bouncing straight back onto ordinary households through higher fuel and energy costs.

The word Rubio used was 'contagion'. That's the fear that pulling one thread unravels something bigger. Oil markets are already twitchy. A sudden removal of an exemption, with no replacement supply lined up, could push prices higher at a moment when inflation is only just cooling off in the US and Europe.

The hidden winner here is Moscow. Every time a Western official publicly signals hesitation, it confirms that the economic leverage cuts both ways. Russia knows this. It has known it since 2022.

Nothing has been decided. But the fact that Rubio is saying the quiet part out loud suggests the internal debate about tightening sanctions on Russian oil is moving, slowly, toward a real decision.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. We built Pulse to track the macro events that move markets. Follow @HaatchPulse for daily updates on the stories that matter.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

BREAKING:

Rubio says he wants to kill the US exemption that lets Russian oil keep flowing. But he's scared of what happens if he actually does it.

The reason he's hesitating is that cutting it off could spike energy prices for...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...wipes roughly 174 million handsets off global shipment totals in a single year. That's not a dip. That's the market shrinking by the equivalent of every phone sold in the US annually.

Memory chip shortages and rising component costs are the mechanism here. When the cost of building a phone jumps, brands with thin margins and price-sensitive buyers get squeezed first. Most Chinese Android brands sit exactly in that bracket.

Huawei is the exception because it has rebuilt its supply chain under US sanctions. Years of being cut off from Western chips forced it to develop alternatives. That painful restructuring now looks like a competitive shield just as the market tightens around everyone else.

Apple and Samsung survive for a different reason: their customers pay premium prices, so there's room to absorb higher costs without killing demand. Buyers of £1,000+ phones don't defect when chips get expensive. Buyers of £200 phones do.

The hidden loser is the mid-range Android market. If brands can't raise prices without losing customers, and costs keep climbing, some will simply exit segments entirely. Fewer choices, higher floor prices, for anyone upgrading their phone this year.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. We built Pulse to track the macro events that move markets. Follow @HaatchPulse for daily updates on the stories that matter.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

BREAKING:

Huawei is the only Chinese phone brand forecast to grow shipments in 2026, as the global smartphone market heads for its steepest annual decline on record.

The rest of the industry is about to feel a 13.9% drop that...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...pay more. Significantly more. And this is only day one.

The Strait of Hormuz is the single most important chokepoint in global energy. Roughly 20% of the world's oil supply moves through it every day. There is no realistic alternative route at that volume.

A full blockade has never actually been executed. Iran has threatened it before, most seriously in 2012, and oil spiked then too. But the market always assumed it was a bluff. This announcement is being read differently.

The hidden pressure point is Europe. The UK and EU have already been scrambling for stable energy supply since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Any sustained disruption through Hormuz removes one of the last pressure valves.

Petrol prices were already edging up before today. A 7% move in crude doesn't stay in the wholesale market for long. It reaches the forecourt within days.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. Pulse is how we track what's moving global markets every day. Follow @HaatchPulse to get these before everyone else.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

CONFIRMED:

Iran just announced it will halt nuclear talks with the U.S. and block the Strait of Hormuz. Oil jumped more than 7% in minutes.

Every driver filling up this week is about to...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...find out how exposed the continent still is to Russian oil, even after three years of trying to cut the cord.

Lukoil and Rosneft together account for a massive share of Russia's crude exports. Targeting them directly goes further than anything the EU has done before on the energy side.

The hidden tension here is that some EU member states, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, still process significant volumes of Russian crude through legacy pipeline infrastructure. Sanctions on the producers themselves, not just the oil, could force a much harder choice on those countries.

Tighter Russian supply hitting markets that are already stretched means upward pressure on oil prices globally. That flows directly into petrol and diesel at the pump, and into household energy bills heading into autumn.

The EU has been trying to reduce its dependence on Russian energy since 2022. These sanctions would be the most direct strike yet at the companies actually pumping the oil.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. Pulse is how we track what's moving global markets every day. Follow @HaatchPulse to get these before everyone else.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

JUST IN:

The EU is moving to hit Lukoil and Rosneft, Russia's two biggest oil companies, with a fresh wave of sanctions.

Anyone who fills up a car or pays an energy bill in Europe is about to...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...find out how exposed the continent still is to Russian oil, even after three years of trying to cut the cord.

Lukoil and Rosneft together account for a massive share of Russia's crude exports. Targeting them directly goes further than anything the EU has done before on the energy side.

The hidden tension here is that some EU member states, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, still process significant volumes of Russian crude through legacy pipeline infrastructure. Sanctions on the producers themselves, not just the oil, could force a much harder choice on those countries.

Tighter Russian supply hitting markets that are already stretched means upward pressure on oil prices globally. That flows directly into petrol and diesel at the pump, and into household energy bills heading into autumn.

The EU has been trying to reduce its dependence on Russian energy since 2022. These sanctions would be the most direct strike yet at the companies actually pumping the oil.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. Pulse is how we track what's moving global markets every day. Follow @HaatchPulse to get these before everyone else.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...actually signals about the state of British public finances right now.

A 6% yield on UK government bonds is the return lenders are demanding to hold British debt. The higher that number climbs, the more the government pays just to borrow money it has already spent.

The last time UK gilt yields were anywhere near these levels was October 2022, when Liz Truss's mini-budget triggered a near-collapse in the bond market. Pension funds had to be rescued by emergency Bank of England intervention.

Insight stepping in as a buyer suggests some professional money now sees 6% as attractive enough to justify the risk. That's not a vote of confidence in the UK economy. It's a calculated bet that yields have peaked and prices will recover.

The hidden mechanism here is straightforward: when UK borrowing costs stay elevated, the government has less money left over for public services and tax cuts. Rachel Reeves faces a spending review with less room than she started with.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund. We built Pulse to track the macro events that move markets. Follow @HaatchPulse for daily updates on the stories that matter.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

BREAKING:

Insight Investment, one of the UK's biggest bond managers, just loaded up on British government debt after yields hit 6%.

Anyone with a mortgage or pension in the UK should understand what that number...show more

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

...this number makes a summer rate cut a much harder sell.

Core inflation strips out food and energy, the volatile stuff. It's the number the ECB watches most closely, because it shows whether price pressure is genuinely easing or just hiding behind cheaper oil. Right now, it's not easing.

The ECB had been on a slow, cautious path toward cutting borrowing costs. This reading breaks the trend line. Two months ago core was at 2.2%. It's now heading the wrong direction at exactly the wrong time.

The hidden losers here are the millions of Europeans on variable-rate mortgages who were counting on cheaper borrowing before the end of the year. Every month the ECB holds, those monthly payments stay higher.

The ECB meets again in July. Before today, a cut was possible. After today, it's a much harder argument to make.

Haatch is the UK's largest pre-seed VC fund, and Pulse is our daily lens on the macro events shaping markets. Follow @HaatchPulse so you never miss one.

[Haatch Pulse @Haatchpulse]

THIS IS HUGE:

Eurozone inflation just came in hotter than expected. Core prices rose 2.5% in the latest flash reading, beating forecasts of 2.4% and well above last month's 2.2%.

That gap matters to anyone hoping the European Central Bank cuts rates soon, because...show more