Hadley Natus

One brick at a time….

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

Hate being the one that says "This time its different" as the answer to higher prices will always be higher prices but...
- LME Tin Stocks - 5'930
- Tin 200day MA at 35'320, current 3's at 51'700
-Myanmar/Indo/China haven't recovered lost production and the deficit is here
#Tin

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

@Dan_Binski @OG_TINBARON @Abeng_babel @Official_TIMAH Dan, 40k will be a dream of yesteryear… nothing in what I see today will allow Tinderella to look back at her old ways. Welcome Beverly Hills my lady…

Spreads are constant even at these prices and as much as I know this market can be manipulated the room to do is gone….

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

@Dan_Binski @OG_TINBARON @Abeng_babel @TinInvestor @Official_TIMAH Dan, she will have the best News Years Eve party ever. I don’t like the front end of the curve being bid up that drastically without the back end keeping up so that’s a bit worrying but the setup is there. People underestimate just how on a knife’s edge Myanmar and Indo are…

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

I see it going far further…. Good luck to all you Tin bulls!

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

Hi All, the adventures of TinTin has just begun:

#Tin and what I am seeing:
- Tin divergence from the complex as I wrote prior which shows the interest of specific parties in the industry
- SHFE at 6 days consumption, LME at 4800mt
- Myanmar looking bad and Indo even worse (production and possibly politically)
- Concs Market tight and no real reduction in capacity in China to change this
- NOW: I wrote in a previous post to wait to see if China makes a big investment in the Tin space outside of China and CNMC buying a share in Taboca, that is something I have been waiting for. Its not just Tin as they produce alot of columbite as well but more importantly is where that material will no longer go... the US. That Minsur needed this was clear and it will add tons to the market as CNMC can add efficiencies but not more than is already reflected in supply and resource numbers. This has and could have a further effect on outright prices and they see it as an ease to Chinas reducing domestic supply in future but this is a fraction of what is needed.
- "Never catch a falling knife" is the saying, I disagree, it all depends how far below is the cutting board.
- I wasn't confident at 35k, didn't think the market needed metal tons at 30k, said 29k would be a good area to start building a position, now at 28k with 200MDA at 21.8k, 100MDA at 24k I would now be building positions in companies with exposure to Tin, producing or ones where the planned NPV makes money at 20k Sn prices and returns 33% at 25k as these will find funding soon.
- Two announcements in a matter of weeks (IRH on Alphamin, CNMC on Taboca... whats next?)

Geo-politics aside and all being equal with FOMC gradual interest rate cuts included... Tin is going to outshine the complex from now and into Q2 2025.

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

Firstly want to give praise where praise is due. @OG_TINBARON, good call on the SHFE draws!

#Tin and this I like to see:

- Divergence from the complex – standalone fundamentals reflecting in the support of the price relative to the drop in the complex
- Draws from both LME and SHFE and no arbitrage between the two (or very little) which points to physical draws for consumption
- Bottoming of price at a high level (1 week period)
- No change in imports from Myanmar and no change in exports from Indonesia
- Conc market still tight and even if YTC closes JUNE/JULY it wont affect conc demand but bring forward the expected metal shortage going into Q3/Q4
- Nvidia keeps signing contracts from the semi-conductor industry
- If Tinderella doesn’t get fat and sticks to her intermittent fasting program, doesn’t let fast money corrupt her with fake boobs and puffy lips and lets her natural beauty shine through… we might be in for a happy ever after scenario!

Macro points aside that need to be considered but let`s assume rates don’t move and nothing crazy happens in the 2 day FOMC policy meeting, tomorrows CPI doesn’t surprise and the FED decision doesn`t catch the world off-guard…this looks like a great time to build exposure.

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

I am liking this exchange but again I am fundamentally bullish #Tin. From $36’000 to $32’000 is a delta of $4’000. It does give you a good idea of the floor but not a momentum driven trade fundamentally. A negative 4000$ move does incentivize draws from consumers like a positive $4000 move would incentivize delivering to SHFE or LME as a producer.

Promised I’ll post once a week but now got to get back to trying to produce actual #Tin units😁

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

#Tin just interesting…

Mean reversion soon or there is depth in this trade vs 2021?

I’m not convinced yet that fundamentals are backing this graph but it is coming.

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

Don’t get me wrong I am bullish and China will and have been short concs for a while. I would not put me in the daily trader pot as I have a long term view. What I was trying to bring across was that you need draws at higher relative prices over a period of time for it to be a momentum trade fundamentally without the arb trade (real demand).
Consumption for 2025 will be drawn or planned in Q3/Q4 2024 and then look at the supply for 2025 vs that monthly consumption.
Not nullifying your point and as mentioned I would buy every producing Tin asset today even leveraged marginal producers. Just so that is clear! #Tin😁

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

This is good to follow and I do to but use it a little differently. When prices are lower relative to previous prices it incentivizes local receivers to draw from traders and hence draws on SHFE. What I like to see is trailing days higher prices and draws on SHFE. Best is when this happens both ends at LME and SHFE and arb flat across the two. Q3/Q4 when restocking takes place for 2025…. Just my 5c in tin equivalent.

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

@TRAVmoneyofmine When I get that call I’ll let you know!

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

#Tin and what I would like a Tincan call to be like with a possible fund:
- Ring, Ring, Ring, Ring
- Me: Hello
- Them: Hi there, my name is “Clever Guy” from the
company “Fund that is thinking about Tin” we would
like to discuss the possibility of setting up a Tin type
fund?
- Me: Ok have you seen that @Sprott announced the
filing of the Physical Copper Trust? Something like
that? https://t.co/84YGYBIXKw
- Them: Yes, something like that.
- Me: Would a structure like that be possible in Tin?
- Them: Yes it would but unlike Copper or Uranium it’s a
bit tough to get enough Tin metal to make it
worthwhile
- Me: Is that not a good reason to do it?
- Them: We need at least a $100Mio ticket number for
this to work and can you find me $100Mio worth of
metal I can buy up and put in a warehouse
somewhere.
- Me: I could but it would be 3`300mt of metal today
which is currently 15% of supply currently of visible
stock in SHFE and LME warehouses
- Them: That would push the price up very quickly!
- Me: You would need to do it over a period of 6-12
months. The world needs 60`000mt additional supply
by 2030/2035 so getting it will get more difficult.
- Them: So 500-1000mt additional supply per month
from 2025 to 2035?
- Me: that’s to bring it into the system but you would
need 5 times that, so 2500-5000mt of future
committed supply ie projects that plan to produce the
Tin units. There will be lags in demand due to Macro
factors or industry specific as well but yes just think
about it like this to keep it simple: 2023 had 14Mio
electric car sales and plans are for 40mio by 2030.
4kgs of Tin in an EV vs 1.2kg in ICE cars so even if no
EVs are produced from now until 2029 and in 2030
build the 40Mio cars, we need 104Kmt for that year
alone. Just taking the incremental requirement for the
cars above 2023 production of 14Mio, so 26Mio
incremental production in 2030. There isn’t enough
for 2025 let alone 2030, the roughly 16-18kmt
additional demand. Not considering new industries or
demand such as data-centers and energy storage
- Them: So the world consumes around 1000mt per
day, correct? So you are saying there are 22 days of
supply in storage around the world and we need 104?
- Me: No you need roughly 60kmt additional as tin still
has a growing secondary market to keep us at current
supply growth rates to at least try keep up with
demand and there is probably more in the supply
chain but yes that’s roughly correct
- Them: Holy Moly!
- Me: No, Holy #Tin!
- Them: If we split it, $100mio on the metal itself and
$100mio on equities, what do you suggest?
- Me: Buy every tin mining project out there that is
producing and any development projects with a BFS or
a good PFS
- Them: I checked and only found 5!
- Me: Correct!
- Them: When do you need the $100Mio!!!?....
- Me: Sorry may I call you back, have a bigger fund on
the other line with the same idea...

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

@James_Karn LME - All base metals
CME (CFTC) - Cu, Ali and not sure on Zn if they have the options still
SHFE - month to month positions not a COTR report like LME and CME

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

#Tin and what I watch out for:
- Tin con will be 285k metal contained vs 375k of planned consumption for 2024. Need Indo and Myan to take out 50k of the metal in conc
- China has reduced consumption of Tin metal in 2024 this far but investment in metals across the board in 2023 increased almost threefold vs 2022 but little in the form of Tin projects outside China. This needs to change.
- Of the 230 primary Tin Projects with regards to concentrate supply only 8 at at a stage above PEA accounting for 42kmt metal contained per year (4 new $AFM.V) with earliest possible production in 2027/2028 so no projects out there today can support the planned 2030 525k demand
- ROW (US, Japan and EU) consumption needs to improve to start drawing that marginal ton
- Watch the SHFE stocks. As mentioned China do not need additional metal at the moment but watch that graph closely to see when it changes. For Tin metal producers SHFE is like LME the buyer of last resort so this would not be a suppliers option if others were available albeit still very small vs the 170k Chinese market
- Follow COTR on Tin
- See if China Inc starts making big investments outside of China in Tin projects for future Tin supply

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

Would make sense considering the resources available today that they make a deal with Ivanhoe. Will also open up the board and shareholders to reconsider their stance on investing in higher risk areas. The heritage of Billiton was Indonesia doing Tin in Belitung hence the name. They have a good understanding and agreement with ivanhoe electric today so why not take that extra step.

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

Hi Felipe, demand you can go with ITA but on supply you really need to do your homework but ITA is a good place to start. Tin is a small market so I take the Chinese numbers as fact which dangerous but the best you have and ROW look at the individual projects and build your supply base.

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

So had a few requests to extrapolate my Cinderella story regarding #Tin so took the time to make this a proper fairy tale I can tell my kids one day....

#tin #lithium #copper

“once upon a time there was Tinderella that lived with her dominating and volatile evil stepmother “#Copper” and her two mediocre wicked step sisters, Lead and Zinc. Tinderella was always overlooked during her younger days (Bronze and Tincans) but as time elapsed her evil stepmother could not live without her as she was the glue that kept the house together and worked tirelessly day in and day out, taking no credit but becoming ever more instrumental.

The evil sisters were spoilt, got everything they wanted and over time did not evolve or learn new trades and just lived off the dominance of the stepmother.

The nations King-Oil and Queen-Coal had a son, Prince #Lithium, that was young, erratic, a typical bachelor fresh out of Uni with no real goal in life. Yes he had his flirts with Ms Indonesia-Nickel and a short stint with power hungry Ms Cobalt until the King and Queen said enough is enough and forced him to transition his ways and takeover the reigns of power provider to the nation. Prince Lithium spent time in Asia refining his talents and learning how to use his new given power more effectively. As the 3rd born son, he wasn’t the first born but due to his two elder brothers being air-heads he knew it was up to him to bring about change to his nation but there was one problem, he needed a strong, energetic partner at his side to support and grow with in this new period of his nation’s development.

The King and Queen arranged a Royal Ball and invited the daughters of all 118 elemental nations to find a suitable match for the Prince-Lithium. Invites were sent and the preparations began.

Tinderella got news of the Ball and tried hard to convince her evil stepmother to let her go but she would not yield keeping her down in the cellar, favouring her two daughters, Lead and Zinc, leaving Tinderella to solder dresses for them instead.

Lying in her bed on the day of the Ball, Tinderella, left crying and alone, she prayed to the Gods (#IRA/#FOMC/#COP28/Net-0/#Nvidia) for a miracle that would allow her some way to meet the Prince. Suddenly a bright light appeared and the Fairy Godmother came forward. She granted Tinderella`s prayers and dressed her in a beautiful green gown and glass slippers. She gave her two rules: You will one, have only time from 2001-2022 and two, no new supply of magic so make the most of your time and be back by midnight 2022.

At the Ball, the Prince only had eyes for Tinderella. Sure Ms Lanthanum and Ms Neodymium tried to semi-conduct flirts with the Prince and he had met Ms Caesium earlier that evening but found her difficult to process. It was love at first sight though with Tinderella and they danced their way through 2001-2022 but when the clock struck 12, the magic ran out and Tinderella raced to leave the ball, losing her glass slipper along the way and leaving Prince Lithium lonely and in the dumps.

The Prince found the slipper and would not give up on finding his partner of his dreams to see him through the transition of Prince to King and set forth finding the foot that fit the slipper.

Evening of the last day of 2025, the Prince found his way to the front door of Tinderella. The ugly sisters tried forcing their foot into the slipper but it didn’t fit. Tinderella stepped forward and she knew it was her time to shine. The rest is history as Tinderella and Prince Lithium lived happily ever after.

Moral of the story:
- Behind every strong prince is a princess that knows how to keep shit together.
- The King remains the King until he dies
- The evil stepmother just becomes the evil mother in law. She just gets another title but still dominates the Prince and Princess
- Tinderella will make it to the Ball but it wont be easy and after 2025 she will have the time of her life
- Prince Lithium will be the new King one day but the current King is still fit so it will take time for him to pass on the baton

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

Watch “Fourth Power's Thermal Battery” on #Vimeo https://t.co/z1yrSSIMmm

Very interesting tech @AsegunHenry. Things like this will disrupt energy storage @Breakthrough. Would like to know if the #Tin in this process can be substituted or are its properties optimal for this process and tech?

"Fourth Power has received $19 million in Series A funding to scale its cost-effective groundbreaking thermal battery technology.

The investment round was led by the venture capital firm DCVC, with participation from Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV) and Black Venture Capital Consortium.

In addition to helping scale the company’s thermal energy storage solution, which can store energy for both short- and long-term durations to be put back on the grid as electricity, the investment will initiate the construction of a 1 MWh-e prototype facility outside Boston, with a 2026 anticipated completion date."

#ThermalBattery #EnergyStorage #RenewableEnergy #EnergyInnovation #LDES #DecarbonizedGrid #GridStorage #EnergyTransition

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

What I look at...
- NVIDIA - “Rubin” is coming in 2025
- TSMC – “Arizona, US fab – 2024 + Kumamoto, Japan (JASM) – 2024”
- Demand for data center GPUs is growing at 23.5% which is a new industry with regards to tin usage/consumption
- New energy vehicles sectors in 2025 will account for 26.06% of total tin demand in 2025, up from 10.84% in 2021. And supply deficit will reach 28,200 mt.
- global supply is expected to lag at a 2.2% CAGR. By 2030, this will create an estimated supply deficit of 25%, yes at 525k planned demand thats 131k and name me a few planned projects even in PEA stage than can cover this shortfall
- Transition exposure needs time to drawdown current stocks and will equate to 60% of demand in 2030
- Global demand is expected to grow from 422kt in 2022 to 525kt by 2030 (2.8% CAGR)
-Concentrate market will get tighter through 2024/2025 while China runs through its current metal stock
- Where will this new primary supply come from? And at what grades and prices today would attract new investment in primary supply don`t believe the $25k number its closer to $35k when not only considering AISC but also all in CAPEX and pre-development costs with the AISC (sunk costs)

[Hadley Natus @HadleyNatus]

@TinFormer_News @toiletkingcap