Hamlen Thompson

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

The rise in unemployment rates yesterday highlights the critical importance of this macro signal, which has consistently predicted severe downturns in labor markets.

If history is any guide, this is the beginning of an upward trend in unemployment rates, not the end of one.

[Hamlen Thompson @HamlenT]

@EquityBrian DCO - aerospace and defense. Cheap, good balance sheet, margins and cash flow. Solid growth and M&A. Not controversial just not liquid. Largest shareholder proposing to take private at a hugely discounted price.

[Richard Christopher Whalen @rcwhalen]

Client note: "Note: Some of you may have noticed that @business is reporting that "AAA" tranches of #CMBS are taking losses. This is bad. The next market "surprise" may be a large default in commercial real estate that the markets and the Fed cannot ignore."

[Hamlen Thompson @HamlenT]

@SmallCapKing2 Some tickers for you NCMI, ISSC, DCO. NCMI has no debt. ISSC and DCO have taker over bids that are too low and very good businesses in a growth industry with IP

[Hamlen Thompson @HamlenT]

@SmallCapKing2 Sold 100%. for the same reason.

[Walter Deemer @WalterDeemer]

Today was an 87% downside day. Have a nice night!

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

"Supply Is Coming"

(h/t @m3_melody)

[Hamlen Thompson @HamlenT]

@Investmentideen $DCO

[Hamlen Thompson @HamlenT]

@SmallCapKing2 Looks interesting. Ever look at MAMA?

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

Retail store closures this year thus far has hit a new high.

2600 stores have closed in first 4 months.

This is higher than previous record which was in 2023.

No one is shopping in store now. It’s all online. Home Depot creating new stores catered to online sales only.

[Peter Atwater @Peter_Atwater]

"Peak Goldilocks"

h/t @edwardnh

[emini tic @TicTocTick]

Yield Curve has been inverted for over 500 days now.

In last 100 years, this has happened ONLY 3 times- 1929, 1974, 2008.

In each one of these instances, the market will shed more than 50% in coming months.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Dow theory ✍️📖

Update ⏰🔔

Dow transports backtesting the channels breach (text book ) .
DJT showing major weakness as the Dow jones churns below its major trend breach .

The dislocation between the Dow jones and Dow transports continues to widen .

This is not good .🛑

This is very bad .🛑

Heavy falls expected .🚨

[Kantro @MichaelKantro]

Confused why today's "bad news" pushed stocks higher? Perhaps because the enemy (unemployment) of your enemy (inflation) is your friend. #macro #hopE

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Dow transports .

Chart tells all that needs to be known .

[George Robertson @BickerinBrattle]

the biggest challenge to anyone in finance, be it day trading or figuring out large long term portfolios using ALM, is boredom. things just dont change day to day, even week to week, even month to month, even - you get the idea.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Good ⁦@Bloomberg⁩ story on the rapid fall in the Yen and Japan’s efforts to stop the slide. First line of defense when your currency is falling is to let interest rates rise. Japan can’t do that as this would cause a fiscal crisis. Japan is trapped… https://t.co/CEOXsycTAV

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

What's going on here?

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Japan has always been a favorite talking point for the #MMT crowd, who claim Japan's huge debt load is totally fine. It isn't. Japan is in a currency crisis because its debt forces the BoJ to keep interest rates pinned. A huge warning sign for debt aficionados in the Euro zone...

[Salvation ⚡️ @btcSalvation]

Why do random people on the internet understand Bitcoin, but PhD economists don't?