JM

Polymarket Investor

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@ithinkthisisgod In this case, insider account bought five different “Yes” positions in the Top 5 market, bet on “Anora Yes,” which was the movie I had my eye on, and also showed similarities to another (suspected) insider I’d been watching in the Gemini market — so I trusted it and followed in.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

1/2

After I spotted an insider account, I took a position on d4vd to be #1 in the People category, but d4vd’s Google Trends numbers didn’t actually look that high, so even as I entered I wasn’t sure if it really made sense.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@ithinkthisisgod You have to synthesize a wide range of factors — the overall vibe, the account’s past behavior, my research findings, and so on — and of course I could be wrong.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

Going crazy over some random Indian guy's $91M prediction, and it's total nonsense that it's not moving up from 90c even after the Deadline Monday numbers came out. Anyway, this market was exhausting.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@0xSntx @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @zscdao Indian boxoffice analyst

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@0xSntx @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @zscdao I told you. The only scenarios possible at this point were <$90M and $90M-$101M. It's heavily tilting towards <$90M now, though.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@0xSntx @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @zscdao Charlie says 90m

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@dv_dimitrios @mark_k @GoogleDeepMind He always wrong. Trust polymarket

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@ShowMeTheMon3yy It's more important to check who is buying. A safe 80c is better than a risky 30c. Not that it's completely safe yet, though.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@ShowMeTheMon3yy Hello I'm on No for the 16th as well.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

2/2

But within just a couple of hours of getting in, Google’s Year in Search 2025 page leaked, and I was able to sell all the d4vd I’d bought at 99.8¢.

Trading on insider information is risky, but it’s great for making big profits in a short time.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

Mention markets tend to give good results when you’re just having some light fun with them.

At the last Cabinet meeting (Oct 9), Trump said “thank you” 20 times and “please” 11 times.

Buying “Thank you / Please 15+ times” at 90¢ is a +EV, low-risk bet, and luckily it hit.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

Literally free money. @Polymarket

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

5.
That made it possible to buy No and lock in a high, essentially risk-free return.

This was probably the least stressful profit I’ve ever made on Polymarket. If I’m lucky, the next set of markets will attract another wave of traders who make the same mistake.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

1.
This round of markets tied to the Sotheby's Leonard A. Lauder Auction was genuinely fun. Let’s walk through what happened in contract "Lot 7 Matisse – 15m+"

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

4.
In other words, the number displayed there includes the buyer’s premium. Once you strip out the premium, the actual hammer price is only 14,000,000 USD, which is below the 15m threshold.

But a lot of people seem to have looked only at the sold price and piled into Yes.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

3.
The reason is that the sold price is not the hammer price.

At the top of the results page, Sotheby’s clearly notes:

“Please note that the results listed on this page are inclusive of any Sotheby's Premiums ...”

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

2.
Lot 7 Matisse – 15m

The rule was simple:
If the work’s hammer price exceeded 15 million USD, the market would resolve Yes. Otherwise, it would resolve No.

On Sotheby’s official website, the result is shown only as the sold price.

However, this market is about to resolve No.

[JM @HanRiverVictim]

@polytalvi @PolymarketTrade Why am I included?