Something very important about NVIDIA that I’ve been wanting to write about for some time- so taking the time now to share
Many / most people with prestige on this app by virtue of the economy we’ve had for the past 20 years have a SWE background. Their experience is based on manipulation of bits
I feel blessed to have worked as a Global Sourcing Manager (GSM) at Apple. The only big tech company prior to AI that was Supply Chain driven
I saw first hand what happens with compounding at Apple in their supply chain, a concept many people, not even @dylan522p really understand- about why Nvidia is likely to compound its dominance
Go back to 2007. The first iPhone released, very popular, exciting product etc. At the time, and this is a very important point, the landscape of consumer electronics was split up into different product categories. Nokia, Motorola, Blackberry were in the cell phone category. Dell, HP, Lenovo in the PC space . Apple came in and did something peculiar- it was a PC company that shipped a cell phone *wow* - at face value, it’s interesting but so what
People realized about the software and ecosystem and all that stuff way later, but thats not really why Apple won so hard. At least its not the only reason
Really what happened was something more relevant to today- and here’s what people who haven’t seen Apple supply chain up close probably cannot understand, including Dylan
Apple became a demand aggregator. The profit margins from phones and laptops went into the same bank account, funded the same pool of R&D, and went into the same inventory budget, and Apple was very careful about SKU expansion. They knew that one of their superpowers was concentrated spend with suppliers, a giant carrot and stick
A unified reference design, running a unique operating system, with a focus on co-design between its product categories. While Dell, Lenovo, Nokia, and Motorola were big businesses by any standard, they were fragmented relative to Apple, and over time suppliers began to allocate increasing dollar share of their R&D budget to supporting Apple
So Apple, with one unified reference design, a focus on co-design between it’s products, turned into a unified stack which suppliers could put huge, concentrated effort behind, and see product quality and volume go up and up as inevitably polish begot polish
Dell, HP, Lenovo never stopped being “big” businesses by most standards, the phone landscape shifted towards Samsung away from Nokia and Motorola, but the important thing is that today we don’t really even view as DELL as a competitor to Apple, we recognize that due to many factors comparing the two is Apples to Oranges (pun intended)
In the same way, I’m highly confident we’re going to look back on NVIDIA relative to custom ASIC programs much the same way. TPU, like DELL will likely remain a “big” business- but will be incomparable to NVIDIA because of this compounding. We’re going to forget we ever seriously viewed the two as being close competitors. Lenovo like Tranium is still a “big” business, but again, no comparison at all to Apple / NVIDIA
The takeaway is in physical businesses, Supply Chain advantages are all important, and they compound. Suppliers who can lean into a single reference design inevitably leads to more polish, higher volume / more growth, more R&D dollars, and executive focus. Over time those factors compound and become overwhelming because in the world of atoms, momentum is not a button click away. Inertia is insanely powerful, especially if the leader is hungry and pressing their advantages
REVEALED: Here Are the Mainstream Journalists on China’s Payroll 🚨
I exclusively uncovered the identities of prominent U.S. journalists flown to China by a CCP-linked influence operation seeking “favorable coverage” and “positive messages” about Beijing. 🧵
Official transcript from the US Senate on May 30, 1866. Senator Jacob Howard, who introduced the 14th Amendment:
"This will not, of course, include persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens...”
SCOTUS got this ruling 100% wrong. A total travesty.
The majority tried to constitutionalize unlimited birthright citizenship. But Justice Kavanaugh MAY have left Congress a door.
I’m filing legislation to walk through it.
And I’ll keep working on a constitutional amendment to restore American citizenship. https://t.co/WV8gu1OYhy
For a US official to fly the flag of another country after having sworn an oath of citizenship that requires sole loyalty to America is nothing but treason!
Communism through (my) ages:
1) When I was 15, a teacher told me "It isn't as bad as they say, and makes a lot of sense."
2) At about 19, college friends, "Socialism isn't communism."
3) At 20, on meeting my grandfather-in-law, "They are evil. We escaped in 1949."
4) At 30, "China is a wonderful developing Democracy"
5) At 35, I was sent to communist China on business. It was a crowded, smelly, dirty, factory of despair and hopelessness. This I saw with my own eyes.
6) At 36, "China doesn't count. Successful socialism is in northern Europe."
7) I moved to northern Europe when I was 40. It was much nicer than China, but also felt like I was living in the past. I had to wait 6 months for a hernia operation.
8) When I was about 45, the migrant crisis began. The socialist/globalist/pacifist allowed them entry into every country, regardless how many crimes they committed along the way. Just 20 minutes from my house, in Calais, I was shocked to see migrants jumping onto trucks, breaking open the doors, scattering the contents across the highway, then climbing in. They went through the Chunnel and got out in England.
9) At 52, the soft socialism around me had transformed into globalism. I was told I had to call people by their preferred pronouns, though it was a lie, and even if I didn't know what the preferences were. I quit.
10) I returned to the US, and am now 60. "Socialism" is no longer a dirty word here. People openly espouse the virtues of it. Politicians run as socialists and win.
Socialism has taken many forms, from the Bolshevism of Russia, to the CCP in China, the Nazis in Germany, Fascists in Italy, and the many forms of it found in Latin America. It is one of the two most destructive ideologies on earth. It is designed to deprive, despirit, and murder everything that comes in contact with it.
Socialism is a great lie at every level. It helps no one, not even those who benefit the most. This is because the cost is the imposition of one's will on everyone else, and that destroys the soul of the usurper and the life of the oppressed.
Socialism always fails on its own, but only after destroying almost everything in its train. It can also be conquered. Those are the options.
I would like to see you make a voluntary contribution of 5% of your family’s $200M net worth to the government for important healthcare, childcare, and jobs. Don’t worry, it’s just one-time. Your $10M contribution will provide free childcare for over 1,000 California kids for a year! Once you’ve made your personal contribution to a more just and equitable society, I’ll support all your other asset seizure ideas. But you gotta go first…
THIS by @friedberg
Not a single word is untrue
It is a clear-sighted DIAGNOSIS + WARNING of political hucksters who lie for power so they can control, cheat, steal
Highly-functioning, moral societies are built around freedom, liberty, risk and reward.
VIDEO: Vice president Vance in a message to to Israeli cabinet members:
“If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have left
2/3 of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars.
The problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump, and anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the President of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in”
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true:
— As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable.
— Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.)
— A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused.
— In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.”
— In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety.
— In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community.
— The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority.
— Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.