Hardy Bets

Prop Analyst | NBA ‘25 +69.14U | WNBA 24-25: +41.53U

[Hardy Bets @HardyBets]

WNBA Play #3 🏀

Bridget Carleton O 12.5 Points (-115 BO)

Low line for Bridget here.

In L5, the Mercury rank 13th in defensive rating. Bridget has cleared this line in all 4 games vs bottom-half defenses.

The Mercury allow the most points from ATB 3s, where 60% of Bridget's points come from.

Copper is doubtful, which should mean more Nogic minutes and a weaker Mercury perimeter defense. Leite is also likely to draw the tougher matchup with Makani.

Line has moved since given out in the free cord. I'd take 15.5 PA and prefer it to 13.5 P, considering Bridget averages 2.7 AST vs bottom-half defenses.

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WNBA Play #2 🏀

Dearica Hamby U 3.5 Assists (-120 B365)

High line for Hamby here. Per @propsmadness, Hamby is averaging just 5.7 potential assists with Plum active.

With Plum, Nneka, Atkins & Wheeler all active, she's gone under in 3/3 games, averaging just 1.7 assists.

Dallas is also a tough matchup. They allow the 3rd fewest assists overall, 4th fewest to forwards, and 3rd fewest assists from the mid-range area, where 45% of Hamby's assists come from.

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WNBA Play #3 🏀

Bridget Carleton O 12.5 Points (-115 BO)

Low line for Bridget here.

In L5, the Mercury rank 13th in defensive rating. Bridget has cleared this line in all 4 games vs bottom-half defenses.

The Mercury allow the most points from ATB 3s, where 60% of Bridget's points come from.

Copper is doubtful, which should mean more Nogic minutes and a weaker Mercury perimeter defense. Leite is also likely to draw the tougher matchup with Makani.

Line has moved since given out in the free cord. I'd take 15.5 PA and prefer it to 13.5 P, considering Bridget averages 2.7 AST vs bottom-half defenses.

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Code “HARDY” for 25% off your first month

[Hardy Bets @HardyBets]

WNBA Play #2 🏀

Dearica Hamby U 3.5 Assists (-120 B365)

High line for Hamby here. Per @propsmadness, Hamby is averaging just 5.7 potential assists with Plum active.

With Plum, Nneka, Atkins & Wheeler all active, she's gone under in 3/3 games, averaging just 1.7 assists.

Dallas is also a tough matchup. They allow the 3rd fewest assists overall, 4th fewest to forwards, and 3rd fewest assists from the mid-range area, where 45% of Hamby's assists come from.

Graph powered by @propsmadness
Code “HARDY” for 25% off your first month

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WNBA Play #1 🏀

Kelsey Plum U 2.5 3PM (-139 DK)

This is a nice spot to fade Plum as she returns from injury. Over their last five games, the Wings rank second in defensive rating and are allowing the fewest opponent 3PA. For the season, they've also allowed the fourth-fewest 3PM to guards.

Similar players have struggled to clear this number against Dallas, with 11 of 15 staying under the line this season and only one recording 3+ 3PM.

While the Wings have tightened up on the perimeter, they continue to allow the second-most PITP. This should create plenty of scoring opportunities for Plum and the Sparks' frontcourt around the rim, further reducing the need for her to rely on 3PA in this matchup.

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@johnmoseley22 I’d pass

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WNBA Play #1 🏀

Kelsey Plum U 2.5 3PM (-139 DK)

This is a nice spot to fade Plum as she returns from injury. Over their last five games, the Wings rank second in defensive rating and are allowing the fewest opponent 3PA. For the season, they've also allowed the fourth-fewest 3PM to guards.

Similar players have struggled to clear this number against Dallas, with 11 of 15 staying under the line this season and only one recording 3+ 3PM.

While the Wings have tightened up on the perimeter, they continue to allow the second-most PITP. This should create plenty of scoring opportunities for Plum and the Sparks' frontcourt around the rim, further reducing the need for her to rely on 3PA in this matchup.

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WNBA Lotto (10.11x) 🏀🔥

Tail using the link below ⤵️
https://t.co/zDv09wm64F

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WNBA Saturday POTD 🏀

1u - A’ja Wilson O 2.5 Assists (-131 DK)

This is an elite matchup to back A’ja to rack up assists. The Sparks rank dead last in defensive rating and give up the most assists to centers.

More importantly, they allow the most assists from the ATB 3, the spot where A’ja generates 50% of her playmaking.

She cleared this line in 7/8 games vs similar defenses last season and has hit it in her last 5 H2H matchups with the Sparks, including 3 assists & 6 potential assists in the most recent.

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WNBA Saturday Play #2 🏀

1u - Bridget Carleton U 2.5 3PM (-130 B365)

This is a tough matchup for Carleton. Tempo allows the fewest 3PM to guards and ranks fourth in fewest 3PA allowed, making it difficult for her to get shots from outside.

On the other hand, Tempo lacks rim protection, so Carleton’s teammates should have opportunities to attack the basket. With Carla Leite back, she’ll likely take on more of the offensive load, easing pressure on Carleton.

Tempo also plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, and with this being a road game, I can see Carleton potentially struggling to find her rhythm.

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WNBA Saturday POTD 🏀

1u - A’ja Wilson O 2.5 Assists (-131 DK)

This is an elite matchup to back A’ja to rack up assists. The Sparks rank dead last in defensive rating and give up the most assists to centers.

More importantly, they allow the most assists from the ATB 3, the spot where A’ja generates 50% of her playmaking.

She cleared this line in 7/8 games vs similar defenses last season and has hit it in her last 5 H2H matchups with the Sparks, including 3 assists & 6 potential assists in the most recent.

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Posted 3 more WNBA plays in the free Discord 👀🔥 https://t.co/gjpFHrv2sK

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WNBA Saturday Play #2 🏀

1u - Bridget Carleton U 2.5 3PM (-130 B365)

This is a tough matchup for Carleton. Tempo allows the fewest 3PM to guards and ranks fourth in fewest 3PA allowed, making it difficult for her to get shots from outside.

On the other hand, Tempo lacks rim protection, so Carleton’s teammates should have opportunities to attack the basket. With Carla Leite back, she’ll likely take on more of the offensive load, easing pressure on Carleton.

Tempo also plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, and with this being a road game, I can see Carleton potentially struggling to find her rhythm.

📊 Graph Powered by @propsmadness
Code “HARDY” for 25% OFF

[Hardy Bets @HardyBets]

WNBA Saturday POTD 🏀

1u - A’ja Wilson O 2.5 Assists (-131 DK)

This is an elite matchup to back A’ja to rack up assists. The Sparks rank dead last in defensive rating and give up the most assists to centers.

More importantly, they allow the most assists from the ATB 3, the spot where A’ja generates 50% of her playmaking.

She cleared this line in 7/8 games vs similar defenses last season and has hit it in her last 5 H2H matchups with the Sparks, including 3 assists & 6 potential assists in the most recent.

📊 Data Powered by @propsmadness
Code “HARDY” for 25% OFF!

[Hardy Bets @HardyBets]

Flau’jae O 13.5 Points ✅

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WNBA Friday Play 🏀

1u - Flau’jae Johnson O 13.5 Points (+105 BOV)

Buy low spot on Flau’jae. The matchup couldn’t be better. The Suns rank 13th in defensive rating and sit in the bottom two against her main scoring play types: FTs, transition, and PnR ball handler, which account for 65% of her points.

With Malonga also out, who carried a team-high 30.6% usage, a larger share of the offense is now available to Flau’jae.

[Hardy Bets @HardyBets]

WNBA Friday Play 🏀

1u - Flau’jae Johnson O 13.5 Points (+105 BOV)

Buy low spot on Flau’jae. The matchup couldn’t be better. The Suns rank 13th in defensive rating and sit in the bottom two against her main scoring play types: FTs, transition, and PnR ball handler, which account for 65% of her points.

With Malonga also out, who carried a team-high 30.6% usage, a larger share of the offense is now available to Flau’jae.

[Hardy Bets @HardyBets]

WNBA Friday Play 🏀

1u - Flau’jae Johnson O 13.5 Points (+105 BOV)

Buy low spot on Flau’jae. The matchup couldn’t be better. The Suns rank 13th in defensive rating and sit in the bottom two against her main scoring play types: FTs, transition, and PnR ball handler, which account for 65% of her points.

With Malonga also out, who carried a team-high 30.6% usage, a larger share of the offense is now available to Flau’jae.

[Hardy Bets @HardyBets]

❌ Bad read on this one

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WNBA Play #1 🏀

1u - Dearica Hamby U 27.5 PRA (-120 CZR)

With the Sparks’ new offseason additions, Hamby has seen her role shrink, with her usage dropping from a team-high 25.4% last season to just 22.2% this season.

The Mercury allow the second-fewest points in the restricted area, where Hamby scores 90% of her points.

Hamby hit this number in her last two games, but that was against Tempo, who allow the most points in the restricted area. Atkins was also out for those two games but is back in the lineup and should take away volume from Hamby.

[Hardy Bets @HardyBets]

WNBA Play #1 🏀

1u - Dearica Hamby U 27.5 PRA (-120 CZR)

With the Sparks’ new offseason additions, Hamby has seen her role shrink, with her usage dropping from a team-high 25.4% last season to just 22.2% this season.

The Mercury allow the second-fewest points in the restricted area, where Hamby scores 90% of her points.

Hamby hit this number in her last two games, but that was against Tempo, who allow the most points in the restricted area. Atkins was also out for those two games but is back in the lineup and should take away volume from Hamby.