GameBoy69

GME almost there, yet so far. not financial advice

[Alex Mason 👁△ @AlexMasonCrypto]

🚨 JAPAN JUST DID THE IMPOSSIBLE

The Bank of Japan just raised rates to 1.25%. The highest since 1995.

And the yen FELL.

Now ask yourself one question:

WHY CAN’T JAPAN JUST KEEP HIKING UNTIL THE YEN RECOVERS?

For years, the BOJ kept rates near zero or NEGATIVE to fight deflation.

Japan built its entire financial system around almost FREE MONEY.

Japanese investors could borrow yen cheaply and buy higher-yielding assets overseas.

That became the famous YEN CARRY TRADE.

But there was a cost:

1) Negative rates crushed bank margins.

2) Massive BOJ bond buying distorted the government bond market.

And years of cheap money left Japan extremely sensitive to higher rates.

And this is where the trap appears.

Japan’s government debt pile is enormous.

As rates rise, old cheap debt eventually gets refinanced at higher rates.

Japan’s government interest bill has already gone from roughly:

¥8.5T in 2023 → ¥13T in 2026

And that is BEFORE Japan gets anywhere close to U.S. rates.

Today:

- Japan: 1.25%

- U.S.: 3.75%-4.00%

The carry trade is still alive.

Dollars still pay far more than yen.

To really close that gap, Japan would have to tighten MUCH harder.

But aggressive hikes would hit:

→ Government borrowing costs
→ Corporate borrowing
→ Mortgages
→ Bond prices
→ Economic growth

That is why Japan cannot simply keep smashing rates higher.

And that is why today’s hike wasn’t enough to save the yen.

The market understood something retail didn’t:

1.25% IS STILL CHEAP MONEY.

The rate gap is still huge.

And the BOJ gave no signal that it is prepared to close that gap aggressively.

So Japan faces an ugly choice:

Raise rates fast and put enormous pressure on the system built around cheap money.

Or normalize slowly and tolerate a weaker yen for longer.

Right now, the market is betting on the second option.

And a weak yen has its own cost.

Japan imports huge amounts of energy and raw materials.

A weaker currency makes those imports more expensive and pushes inflation higher.

But it also helps exporters and increases the yen value of overseas profits.

Japan doesn’t necessarily WANT a weak yen.

It is tolerating one because aggressively defending it could be even more painful.

Remember, I’ve been trading markets for over 15 years.

The biggest opportunities come when central banks get trapped between two bad choices.

That’s exactly what I’m watching now.

When I see where the money moves next, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do.

Turn notifications on.

If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

[Stocktwits @Stocktwits]

ARE THE $GME APES BACK!?

Price surging after hours and sentiment is up 100% over the past 15 days 👀

[Larry Cheng @larryvc]

++++

[greg @greg16676935420]

Wake me up when September ends

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

You can FEEL the looming Bitcoin bull market in the air.

Some 37-year-old divorced man in Arizona is refinancing his Tacoma, MSTR is starting to move, your dentist just asked about Coinbase, and a guy with a laser-eye profile picture who vanished for 14 months has suddenly tweeted “patience.”

A hardware wallet containing 0.083 BTC is being retrieved from a fireproof safe somewhere.

A wife is about to hear the phrase “we’re actually still early” at dinner for the first time since 2021.

A Robinhood account with $684 in it is being mentally converted into a beachfront property.

The dormant Telegram groups are waking up.

The chart guys are drawing arrows again.

Michael Saylor is staring out a window like Batman.

Nature is healing.

It’s getting closer.

Can you FEEL it?

bitcoin:native

[Phantom @phantom]

evening plans: open my phone and stare at the Solana 5 minute market

[GameBoy69 @Haricotter]

@phantom @greg16676935420 look what you've done

[Phantom @phantom]

cool new feature. green candles:

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

We let you use your Bitcoin, without selling, as collateral towards a down payment on a home.

Get your house, keep your exposure to Bitcoin.

[Raydium @Raydium]

JUST IN: GTA 6 will let players trade memecoins in-game

[Kevin Malone @Malone_Wealth]

Some of the GME Warrants have sold as high as $15 in the last week 👀

[Solana @solana]

Everything Wall Street can do, now on Solana from a phone and an internet connection.

"Right now on Solana, you're able to trade stocks. You can buy Tesla stock, Amazon stock. You can buy gold, silver, Bitcoin. You get better FX rates on Solana than any bank, and better interest on platforms like Kamino than a deposit account."

"People in New York in 1971 were directly plugged into the Nasdaq when price discovery started being digital."

"Right now, every one of you can do that with a mobile phone and an internet connection. Any financial instrument Wall Street was able to do, from your pocket."

@vidor_solflare at Solana Summit Serbia

[Phantom @phantom]

solana summer looks good here

[XBOX @XBOX]

OG Green is so back.

Pre-order the XBOX Series X25 and get a copy of Halo: Campaign Evolved included: https://t.co/sCt2Y4fapp

[Fitzzzy 🏴‍☠️ @ShaunFitzzzy]

What the fuck GameStop

[GameStop @gamestop]

Consider this your green light.

Pre-order the XBOX 25th Anniversary Console tomorrow at GameStop. While supplies last.

[MetaMask 🦊 @MetaMask]

you do nothing. your money goes up.

what more is there to explain? ⤵️

[Phantom @phantom]

vibe shift

[FBB4 @fbb4official]

The signs were there…

[FBB4 @fbb4official]

Volatility produces opportunity.

Outsized returns come with unpopular opinions.