Private investor in low-cost, globally-diversified ETFs; early-stage crypto ventures, digital art, & memes. Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.
Joining @MarketElites continues to be a net positive for the portfolio. Following the #swingtrades channel fed me wins for the last year. Definitely a project to watch.
@zerobeta Enshittification. Over the last few weeks I have also noticed more pop-ups on a paid account, super annoying to navigate when I'm on the treadmill.
Market feels "Off".
Markets keep smashing all-time highs, yet many pros I talk to describe being “uncomfortably long”. They're fully invested, yet still wishing they had owned more (expected after the ytd performance we've had), and also slightly uneasy about it.
Here's the paradox:
Big picture: Investors are betting on no near-term recession, lower rates, and an AI-driven profit boom. U.S. dominance is striking: five U.S. companies now make up 20% of the world’s total stock market value.
Under the hood: Participation is narrow. A handful of mega-cap tech names are doing the heavy lifting while small-caps and cyclicals are only starting to catch up.
Recent action has been wild:
• “Non-profitable tech” up 8% in five days
• “Most-shorted” stocks up 6.7%
• A quantum-computing theme fund up 30%
Hedge funds are hedging, retail is "all-in", and even systematic funds are wobbling. Private markets show froth with deals at 100× revenue multiples...this late-cycle energy.
So are we in a bubble?
Yes, with caveats. While valuations are approaching (and by some measures exceeding) dot-com extremes, crowding around one theme (AI) creates a setup where even a small shock could spark a sharp drawdown.
Takeaway for everyday investors?
- Always remember that euphoria and fragility coexist
- Don't confuse headline sugar highs with broad health
- Diversify beyond the "magnificent few" and keep risk tight
instead of talking about how we must dramatically improve STEM competency among US-born students and citizens as quickly as possible to compete with world class talent
we're talking about immigration programs and the countries and the races of the people who benefit from them and how we don't want any more of them in this country
the stupidity and underperformance will continue until we can focus on the things which will actually make the US win again
The easiest filter for evaluating the quality of a person is how they talk about their spouse.
You almost never meet a low quality person who publicly praises their spouse.
And conversely, never trust someone who denigrates their spouse.
Still, the ultimate test is how their spouse talks about them.
The stock investor is neither right or wrong because others agreed or disagreed with him; he is right because his facts and analysis are right.
#theintelligentinvestor