This week's space weather and forecasts have raised a lot of important issues and I think it's worth having a bit of "post-mortem" to see what can be learned.
This is going to be a long thread. (Because I don't have time to write papers anymore.π°)
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Did you see the aurora in Reading at the weekend? Space weather impacts us in various ways and can affect tech in orbit and on Earth. @Harriet__Turner's PhD research @UniRdg_Met is investigating how solar wind forecasting can be improved. Find out more https://t.co/ZJWGOp66wE
Huge congrats to Dr @Harriet__Turner for acing her PhD viva today. And to @ProfChrisScott and @ManuelaTemmer for being excellent examiners. And the Sun even showed up for a first beer garden trip. Happy days.
@C_J_Smith@mathewjowens It was quite the ordeal working out how to transport it. Went for the old masking-tape-round-blanket-and-towel technique. Thank you!
Causal inference is a useful tool to determine underlying physical mechanisms when there's a lot of "cross-talk" between variables. Here's an example of how it helps understand the error in solar wind forecasts, where error sources are highly interrelated:
https://t.co/KsVF5kibvV
Some work headed by @NachiketaChakr8 with @mathewjowens, Matt Lang and myself just published in Solar Physics: Causal Analysis of Influence of the Solar Cycle and Latitudinal Solar Wind Structure on Corotation Forecasts https://t.co/1AQSGHEWCi
@L_A_Barnard @eelcodoornbos @mathewjowens As Luke says, the DA scheme does have the ability to take in any observations, but we've only tested it with data from 1AU in the ecliptic plane thus far.
@L_A_Barnard @eelcodoornbos @mathewjowens We've done tests with archived real time ACE data before and it proved to work, but I'm not sure how the current data gaps compare to the gaps in the data set from a few years ago and what effect that would have. Could be worth investigating though!
An evening of contrasts.
- @Harriet__Turner has just produced the first ever (?) genuine forecast of a CME using solar wind data assimilation. It still needs work.
- I'm watching For All Mankind, set in the 80s. They've forecast CME arrival at the moon to within 30 secs.
@Harriet__Turner@UniofReading discussed their solar wind data assimilation for operational forecasting capabilities. Their seminar can be watched here: https://t.co/XzPE13GBeJ
A nice and sunny day yesterday at the MSSL, perfect for listening to presentations from our and @MSSL_Planetary guest speakers π’: @veerlesterken who presented on cosmic dust & @Harriet__Turner who presented on space-weather predictions.
@SkylarkHolly The Lowdown is a great resource which might help. I haven't used their doctor appointment service but that could be an option to look in to if you wanted to discuss with someone that's not your GP.