Harshil nichani

Trying to manage money and behaviour

[Shyam Sekhar @shyamsek]

It was a spectacular outlier year for SpherePMS in 2025. I can definitely say that there will never be a year like this for a long time. But, this product was created to give something else and not such returns. It was to give an investor "peace of mind ", the most precious and missing part of their regular investment experience. All investments in one place, clear measurement of multi-year performance, moderate fixed fees, continuous adaptiveness in Multi-asset approach. All these aspects weren't built in a year. They were built over learnings of two journeys- my personal investment run of 36 years and the 16 year @ithoughtconnect professional journey. We continue to learn everyday and put those learnings to work for you. All this is to constantly deliver for investors who seek " peace of mind" over returns.
@theninjax @samyuktha_vibhu @HarshilNichani

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

I’m old enough to have invested through three 30%+ drawdowns – the DOT COM Crash, Global Financial Crisis, and Covid Pandemic. I’m lucky in that I’m still young enough to take advantage of the lessons learned.

In early 2020, the markets were collapsing due to the spread of the Covid pandemic. In hindsight we realize it wasn’t that bad. But in the moment - Investors, governments, and markets were losing their minds.

From February 19th to March 23rd 2020 the S&P 500 fell 34%.

On March 18th, Bill Ackman came on CNBC to say, “hell was coming” and the US needed to seal off the border to protect the population. This rant almost bottom ticked the low.

March 23rd was the low.

No one was talking positively about stock prices. When you see the best investors in the world throw in the towel you know the bottom is close. There were so many investors sitting on 50—75% cash waiting and hoping for the world to get even worse. Warren Buffett sat on his huge cash position waiting to see how things would turn out.

If the market falls another 5-10% this week - what a great opportunity. Keep your head. Tune out the people spreading fear.

Don't get too negative because negativity and fear paralyzes common sense.

Instead of panicking and trying to time a bottom you should be slowly adding to the businesses you've always wanted to buy.

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

The best performing asset class since 2000
#GDX #GOLD

[Oliver Groß @minenergybiz]

Gold just hit a new record high at $3,000, so you'd think the interest in gold mining stocks would be through the roof, right?! 🪙⛏️
But no. The fact of the matter is that nobody cares about gold stocks. As the Google Trends for gold mining stocks also show, interest is far below the 5-year high. 👇
$GDX $GLD

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Feel sad for Julian Alvarez. He had a brilliant game.

[Real Madrid Info ³⁶ @RMadridInfo]

The decision to overturn Julian Álvarez's penalty was made by semi-automated technology, reveals rules expert, Christina Unkel.

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Loneliness is a big market

Look at OnlyFans. They posted a 1.3bn$ top line. Users paid 6.6bn$ in 2024.

Hinge make 550$mn top line with avg revenue per user at $29.9 compared to $16.7 for Tinder.

Experiences market is untapped in India

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Elon’s kid is always in important meetings. What’s the bet that he’s never going to get formal education and will only be trained to think out of the box to solve America’s problems.

@elonmusk

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

Had a very good meeting with @elonmusk in Washington DC. We discussed various issues, including those he is passionate about such as space, mobility, technology and innovation. I talked about India’s efforts towards reform and furthering ‘Minimum Government, Maximum Governance.’

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

London bullion borrowing gold from US banks at 10% annualised for a week just shows how crazy this squeeze is going be. Minimum wait time to load gold out of BoE has reached 4 weeks, normally it is a few days or a week.

Deliveries to the US left less free float metal in London vaults. 3 bullion Banks in the US hold 25mn oz of gold, which is 82% of all comex gold inventory

Physical gold > Paper Gold

Source- Financial Times, ZeroHedge, Reuters

#GoldRate #GOLD #stockmarketcrash #stockmarketsindia #nifty

[WikiLeaks @wikileaks]

USAID has pushed nearly half a billion dollars ($472.6m) through a secretive US government financed NGO, "Internews Network" (IN), which has “worked with” 4,291 media outlets, producing in one year 4,799 hours of broadcasts reaching up to 778 million people and "training” over 9000 journalists (2023 figures). IN has also supported social media censorship initiatives.

The operation claims “offices” in over 30 countries, including main offices in US, London, Paris and regional HQs in Kiev, Bangkok and Nairobi. It is headed up by Jeanne Bourgault, who pays herself $451k a year. Bourgault worked out of the US embassy in Moscow during the early 1990s, where she was in charge of a $250m budget, and in other revolts or conflicts at critical times, before formally rotating out of six years at USAID to IN.

Bourgault’s IN bio and those of its other key people and board members have been recently scrubbed from its website but remain accessible at https://t.co/Zp7SvobICU. Records show the board being co-chaired by Democrat securocrat Richard J. Kessler and Simone Otus Coxe, wife of NVIDIA billionaire Trench Coxe, both major Democratic donors. In 2023, supported by Hillary Clinton, Bourgault launched a $10m IN fund at the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI). The IN page showing a picture of Bourgault at the CGI has also been deleted.

IN has at least six captive subsidiaries under unrelated names including one based out of the Cayman Islands. Since 2008, when electronic records begin, more than 95% of IN's budget has been supplied by the US government (thread follows)

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Trent got hammered today after results. The stock has a weight of 1.5% in the NIFTY 50 Index. It was added in Oct’24, peaked out the same month and saw a drawdown of 36% since then.

Motilal, Samco & Shriram- own more than 2% of their entire AUM, with Motilal leading the pack at 5%

Motilal AMC’s active funds AUM is about 67,000cr. 8 out of the 12 active funds have exposure to Trent. As of Dec’24 they own about 68.7Lk shares in the company with 30Lk shares in their mid cap fund. 🤯

Of the 3.91cr shares held by MFs, 25% is index and ETFs. Of the balance 75% in active funds- Motilal owns 23%, axis owns 15.5% and Canara owns 8.8%.

They are the real illuminati 👀
MFs are in for some trouble.

Data- ACE MF, Rupeevest

#Nifty50 #niftycrash #niftyexpiry #stockmarketcrash

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

🤩🤩🤯🤯
Foundry+ Equipment= 🚀

$ASML $TSM

[Oliver | MMMT Wealth (CPA) @MMMTwealth]

This is a 5nm chip.
They can now make 2nm.

Technology is crazy. $ASML

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Indian investors today after DeepSeek.

#DeepSeekV3 #Nasdaq #stockmarketcrash #niftycrash

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

$NVDA

The DeepSeek sell-off:

Analyst Reactions:
🔸 JPMorgan (Sandeep Deshpande): Suggests the AI investment cycle might be overhyped; DeepSeek's efficiency could lead to a more efficient future.

🔸 Jefferies (Edison Lee): Proposes two strategies post-DeepSeek: continue investing in computing power or focus on efficiency, potentially reducing 2026 AI capex.

Contrasting Views:
🔸 Bernstein (Stacy Rasgon): Believes the panic is overblown; maintains outperform ratings on Nvidia and Broadcom.

🔸 Citi (Atif Malik): Acknowledges a challenge to US dominance but emphasizes the advantage of access to advanced chips, maintaining a buy on Nvidia.

Efficiency and Costs:
🔸 Raymond James (Srini Pajjuri): Suggests that if DeepSeek's innovations are adopted, training costs could decrease, questioning the need for large GPU clusters.

Market Dynamics:
🔸 Cantor (C.J. Muse): Sees DeepSeek's developments as bullish for compute demand, suggesting increased rather than decreased need for GPUs, advocating to buy Nvidia on any dips.

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Insane 🤩

#ColdplayAhmedabad #Coldplay

[Indian Tech & Infra @IndianTechGuide]

🚨 Coldplay concert last night at Narendra Modi stadium, Ahmedabad. 🇮🇳

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Such a powerful quote

Paisa vasol presentation
@IFAGalaxy @gajendrakothari

This year will test expectations and patience

#nifty #NiftyBank #stockmarketsindia

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Mithun Sacheti at @IFAGalaxy @CaratLane

1. Why Omnichannel?

India is spending 4.5hrs/day on phone. Younger people spends 6hrs/day

Discovery has moved to digital.
Consumption is still physical.

2. How do you spot and build a category?

Finding a category is a hypothesis. Market size cannot determine your category, you have to just move with it.
You cannot predict the timing for a category to become successful. You have build for tomorrow to fuel today

A brand is successful only if you as a founder are able to define the brand well and get the words out of the consumer. 👏🏻

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Anand Radhakrishnan makes an excellent point- the industry should focus on getting our existing funds better rather than launching NFOs

Hard facts- thematic funds are now being marketed as superior to legacy funds.

He jokes about seeing a “Maha” consolidation of these new thematic funds into existing schemes.

Imagine seeing manufacturing funds merging into flexicap or multicap funds 😂

#nifty #nifty50 #stockmarketsindia #ifagalaxy @IFAGalaxy

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

🤌🏼🤌🏼🤌🏼

#RealMadrid

[WolfRMFC @WolfRMFC]

I’ve been watching this goal on repeat as well, everything about it is so perfect, Modric’s pass, Vinicius first touch and then the cut in and finish. They really COOKED. https://t.co/CJEDDoaQtQ

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Breakdown of Zomato’s results

MTUs & GOV growth has stagnated. Commission rev continues to be 20% of top line. GOV in food business continues to grow lower than fixed costs despite an increase in margins.

Decline in delivery charges/ order led to an increase in contribution margin of 8.5% for the food business.

Blinkit saw solid increase in GOV & MTUs. The decline in GOV/day/ dark store can be attributed due to the new 216 stores added in the quarter. Management says they have front loaded investments. They also say that the addition of a new store in the same area affects the ramp up of an existing store. 37% of total dark stores were added in this year and they contribute approx 10-12% of GOV.

Ex treasury income, they’re still burning cash. QIP+Cash balance is Rs.19k Cr.

#Zomato #Nifty50 #stockmarketsindia

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

NIFTY Next 50 is the only broad based index that has fallen more than 15% from peak. Zomato’s weight in the index is +7% and the stock is down 20% this month.

The whole index is froth. For passive investors this is a very big risk. They need to know what they’re buying into rather than just a mere story on a blog. In developed country like US, passive works because of price efficiency and high participation. We’re still a long way but there are many positive trends to study.

#Nifty50 #Zomato #stockmarketscrash #stockmarketsindia

[Harshil nichani @HarshilNichani]

Markets this week

#Nifty50 #niftytoday #stockmarketsindia