More Likely Scenario
Gradual continuation lower.
Bottom formation develops between 41k–50k.
Time window extends through July–September.
Less Likely Scenario
Immediate stabilization above current levels.
Extended sideways consolidation.
Bottom forms closer to 50k without reaching the primary target.
Strategy
Preserve capital and avoid aggressive long positions.
Relief rallies should be treated as corrective unless market structure changes.
Focus on capital allocation rather than chasing short-term pumps.
Long-term accumulation should wait for clear evidence of bottom formation.
Stance
➡️ Secular Trend: Bullish
➡️ Intermediate Trend: Bearish Correction
➡️ Short-Term Trend: Bearish
➡️ Second Bearish Flag Successfully Played Out
➡️ 41k Remains Primary Technical Target
➡️ 50k Represents Alternative Shallow Bottom Scenario
➡️ Bottom Expected Between July–September
➡️ Capital Preservation Recommended Until Bottom Confirmation
Written by a close friend:
Taking lead from our previous analysis, BTC has behaved almost exactly as anticipated. The second flag formation has resolved decisively to the downside, validating our long-held bearish stance. More importantly, the prolonged consolidation before the breakdown consumed considerable time, creating a classic bull trap and drawing late buyers into a weakening structure.
From a market structure perspective, the bearish correction remains intact and there are still no convincing signs of a durable bottom formation.
Trend Hierarchy
Secular Trend: Bullish
Intermediate Trend: Bearish Correction
Short-Term Trend: Bearish
Read more below:
Momentum
Structure continues to print lower highs and lower lows.
No meaningful bullish reversal pattern has emerged.
Momentum remains in favor of the bears despite occasional relief bounces.
Any short-term strength should currently be viewed as corrective rather than the beginning of a new impulsive uptrend.
Price Outlook
The most important phase of this correction has now begun.
Our preferred scenario remains a continuation toward the 41k area, which represents the primary technical target derived from the completed flag structure and the broader corrective pattern.
The ideal time window for this move remains July through September, allowing both price and time to complete the ongoing correction.
A less likely but still possible scenario is that Bitcoin consumes more time instead of price. In that case, the decline may terminate at a shallower bottom near the 50k region, with prolonged sideways movement replacing a deeper sell-off.