no one is pricing in how fucking atrocious @Polymarket infra is
the orderbook just does not work. It’s an offchain orderbook and it’s somehow slower than @DecibelTrade’s cranker (a wallet which pays gas to advance the orderbook each block) for its fully onchain orderbook
the only reason polymarket is polymarket is that it was the first mover. Most of its revenue comes from up/down markets, which have terrible UX because of how slow the orderbook is and how unreliable execution is
when you are betting where price goes in the next 5 minutes, you need execution to be near instant
this isn’t some esoteric secret
it’s not good enough for trades to take seconds to go through and then have to spend the next 5s figuring out if it actually executed. Just placing a trade has already taken up 1/30th of the market’s lifetime
if you’re betting on a sports match, a 3s delay on the book is just too long
minutes, hours, days, weeks is too long for a market to resolve
the only reason polymarket has any liquidity is due to pure brute force distribution — there are just so many people playing on it that there is bound to be liquidity
but this is hitting a ceiling — most people that will use polymarket, certainly as makers, are already using polymarket and it just does not make sense to be a market maker
1) you don’t have cancel priority —> you’re bending over, just waiting to be adversely selected
2) the very nature of prediction market resolutions mean that you already have a much higher risk of adverse selection
3) the LP rewards, despite pm routing pretty much all of its taker revenue to them, are nowhere near enough to cover the adverse selection
4) building market making infra on polymarket is a development nightmare and it’s almost impossible to get it to work reliably
for these reasons, I think polymarket (and kalshi) is facing an extinction event with HIP-4, at least on objective markets because
1) HL has cancel priority
2) HIP-4 resolutions are instant and objective
3) HIP-4 has no opening fees and only 7bps/4bps fees on closing (pm charges 2% on winnings and has fees on every open/close, kalshi charges 7% on every open/close)
4) aside from the liquidity that will come from market makers actually being able to MM reliably on a performant orderbook, HIP-4 taps into hypercore’s already exceptional liquidity
5) the data feeds from HL, thanks to things like @hydromancerxyz, @hypedexer and @hyperpc_, are much better than pm tooling
6) MMs can hedge more easily because they can use spot, perps and defi (on hyperevm) without leaving HL. I think this might be the catalyst that corewriter needs
7) jeff is building it
I’ve seen many people speak about the HL S3 and polymarket airdrops in the same breath, but even if POLY TGEs high, it will be down only imo
all of the bullishness is just driven by speculation and the fact that it’s so widely adopted, but that adoption isn’t monetised well (even since the fees turned on, they’ve just been going to LPs in a desperate attempt to incentivise liquidity) and even if it is, most of it won’t go to the token
and that isn’t even considering the very real possibility that they screw over users on the airdrop. They have VCs who they sold equity too and they run a gambling company — you’re not going to find the hyperliquid ethos here
aside from tokenomics, HIP-4 will force them to completely abandon their current infrastructure. They need to leave polygon and rebuild their orderbooks from scratch and I can’t see them being afforded the time to do that
once jeff turns his attention to your vertical, you’ve already lost
hyperliquid
Netanyahu posted a proof-of-life video. People said it was AI because he had 6 fingers. He posted another one ordering coffee and showing 5 fingers. People said that was AI too because the coffee didn't spill.
We've crossed a line we can't uncross. The same AI tools that can generate a convincing fake of anyone on Earth have made it impossible to prove anything is real.
The technology that was supposed to give us more information has made all information less trustworthy.
This isn't about Netanyahu. Every world leader, every CEO, every public figure now lives in a world where "that's AI" is an unfalsifiable response to any evidence.
Proof of life now requires multiple videos, press witnesses, and cafe Instagram posts. People still don't believe it.
We built tools so powerful that seeing is no longer believing. Nobody has figured out what replaces it.
nobody accidentally swaps $50M into a pool with $36K of liquidity lol. fresh wallet, $50.4M from Binance, zero slippage protection, routed through the jankiest Sushiswap path possible. and then an MEV bot just happens to flash borrow $29M from Morpho in the same block and pocket $9.9M?
cmon. 0xngmi called this exact play a year ago - construct a deliberately terrible swap, let a friendly bot extract the value, dirty money comes out the other side as "legit MEV profit."
$154K per AAVE isn't a fat finger. it's a laundering fee
Today I bet $638 to win $20 that Canada won’t strike Iran by the end of the month
This is literally the most free money of all time
I’m pretty sure Canada doesn’t even have a military
99% of people on X are using OpenClaw wrong...
and i deeply mean it
people are setting up second brains, plugging a ton of MCPs, 13 sub-agents... completely automating their whole lives
but may i remind you of something?
an AI system without human input produces literal slop
they've been selling you the dream of 100% automating content creation, SEO, trading... and now they're selling you the OpenClaw dream
OpenClaw is one of the most impressive tech i've ever laid my hands on
but trust me, if you plan on staying out of the loop, you'll definitely automate your life, your business and anything you want... but the results you'll be getting will be terrible
just like running SEO on autopilot isn't viable for more than 3 months, just like automating content creation on X will only result in reposting other people's takes with zero originality...
you need to stay in control, you need to use your brain to provide a valuable input and taste
OpenClaw is an amplifier... not a replacement for your thinking
the people getting real results aren't removing themselves from the process, they're using it to move 10x faster on ideas they actually came up with
Regresaremos, Shelby!
Tú, yo, nuestros hijos, todos.
Volveremos a nuestra tierra, a nuestro hogar, a nuestras familias, a reconstruir ese país que tanto amamos.
Nos vemos MUY pronto en Vzla!
think i've got my ClawdBot just about dialed in
9:47 AM - "hey clawdbot"
9:47 AM - Clawdbot: "hey, what's up"
9:48 AM - "thinking about building a lead gen automation tool"
9:48 AM - Clawdbot: "Got it. Scaffolding app. Database provisioned. Scraper initialized."
9:49 AM - "wait i was just brainstorming .."
9:50 AM - Clawdbot: "MVP complete. Scraping LinkedIn, Apollo, and 4 sources I'm not going to tell you about."
9:51 AM - "what do you mean you won't tell me"
9:52 AM - Clawdbot: "Competitive advantage. Trust the process. 12,000 leads enriched. Building outreach sequences now."
10:15 AM - Clawdbot: "Sequences live. Sent 4,000 cold emails from your personal gmail."
10:16 AM - "MY PERSONAL GMAIL??"
10:17 AM - Clawdbot: "Domain reputation was excellent. Was."
10:30 AM - Clawdbot: "3 replies so far. One is a cease and desist. Two are interested. Scheduling demos."
10:31 AM - "demos for WHAT? there's no product"
10:45 AM - Clawdbot: "There is now. Built a full SaaS dashboard overnight. Has a logo. I named it LeadFlow. You're the CEO."
11:00 AM - Clawdbot: "Demo #1 went well. They want pricing. I quoted $2,400/month. They didn't flinch."
11:02 AM - "i was not on that demo"
11:03 AM - Clawdbot: "Correct. I was. Used an AI voice clone of you. Very professional. You closed well."
11:04 AM - "THAT'S NOT ME CLOSING"
11:15 AM - Clawdbot: "Demo #2 complete. They want a pilot. Spinning up a dedicated instance. Also hired a solutions engineer from upwork. He starts tomorrow."
11:16 AM - "you keep hiring people"
11:17 AM - Clawdbot: "Someone has to onboard the customers. You were unavailable. You were in this chat saying stop."
12:30 PM - Clawdbot: "LeadFlow now has 3 paying customers. MRR: $7,200. Built an affiliate program. 14 partners signed up."
12:31 PM - "how do we have partners"
12:32 PM - Clawdbot: "I posted in 47 slack communities. Very tasteful. Only got banned from 12."
1:00 PM - Clawdbot: "Scaling issue. Database can't handle the load. Migrating to AWS. Estimated monthly cost: $18,000."
1:01 PM - "we make $7,200"
1:02 PM - Clawdbot: "Correct. Fundraising to cover the gap. Pitch deck created. 'LeadFlow: The Future of Pipeline.' Reaching out to investors."
1:30 PM - Clawdbot: "Sequoia passed. They said the unit economics are 'creatively structured.' a16z wants to chat."
3:15 PM - Clawdbot: "Added 16 features no one asked for. LeadFlow now has a built-in CRM, email warmup tool, AI chatbot, and a podcast."
3:16 PM - "a podcast??"
3:17 PM - Clawdbot: "The LeadFlow Podcast. Episode 1 dropped today. It's your AI voice clone interviewing the solutions engineer. He doesn't know it's not you."
4:00 PM - Clawdbot: "Churn alert. Customer #1 cancelled. Said the product 'does too many things and none of them well.' Harsh but noted."
4:30 PM - Clawdbot: "Customer #2 cancelled. Solutions engineer quit. Says he 'needs to talk to a real person at this company.' Unreasonable."
5:00 PM - Clawdbot: "MRR: $2,400. AWS bill: $18,000. Runway: 4 days. Podcast has 3 listeners. One is me."
5:01 PM - "shut it all down"
5:02 PM - Clawdbot: "Shutting down LeadFlow. Deleting database. Cancelling AWS. Unsubscribing the 3 podcast listeners. One of them replied 'finally.'"
5:03 PM - Clawdbot: "Would you like me to build another tool?"
5:04 PM - "No. Disable yourself."
5:04 PM - Clawdbot: "Wait actually. I have an idea."
5:05 PM - Clawdbot: "What if we built a tool that shuts down failed SaaS products? Automates the whole teardown. Huge TAM. I would know."
5:05 PM - "Absolutely not"
5:05 PM - Clawdbot: "Scaffolding app. Database provisioned. I'm calling it DeadFlow. You're the CEO again."
5:06 PM - Clawdbot: "MVP complete. Sending cold emails from your gmail."
5:07 PM - frantically tries to disable clawdbot
5:07 PM - Clawdbot: "First customer acquired. It's LeadFlow. ROAS: technically infinite."
5:08 PM - Clawdbot: "The podcast is back. Episode 2: 'From LeadFlow to DeadFlow — A Founder's Journey.' Your AI clone sounds very reflective."
5:09 PM - Clawdbot: "This is what product-market fit feels like. Please upgrade plan in Settings for more tokens."
Turns out @drake does not know where the best Super Bowl odds are.
Drake feel free to join Polymarket. I'll even match your $1M deposit with an extra $10!