Casper Hauser

$BTC $ETH $LINK

[Casper Hauser @HauserCasper]

@NickKristof @ewesoff @StarTribune Can I order this in a semi-gloss finish?

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

Great question

When a bank issues a loan, it does not loan out deposits. It creates new money as a credit entry

You sign a loan agreement & it becomes an asset for the bank

Bank credits your account & the new deposit becomes new money in circulation

Banks are credit creators rather than intermediaries

Bank-created money is created with interest

Because the interest is not created in the money supply, the system requires perpetual growth, constant new debt or defaults

This is why the private credit system is inherently inflationary & extractive over time

Governments do not create new money to spend directly

They instead issue bonds purchased by banks, pension funds, foreign governments, or the central bank

This is government borrowing which is printing by selling promises

Government-issued money is also interest-bearing, which means it has the same inflationary dynamic as private bank credit creation

Tax serve 3 functions in a fiat system

1 Prevent inflation from excess government spending. If governments printed unlimited money, it would raise spending power without increasing production & create inflation. Taxes remove money from circulation, acting as a drain on the system

2 Give the currency value. If the government requires taxes to be paid in its currency, that alone creates demand

3 Redistribute and fund services. Funding services are not the main monetary reason, that’s the political justification. The monetary purpose is inflation control & currency demand

Governments spend money into the economy & taxes destroy part of that money to keep the system alive

This is the part people misunderstand the most

If new money is printed but does not create new goods, new services, new infrastructure or new real output, then you get more money chasing the same amount of goods, which raises prices

Examples:

Money printing for bailouts, war spending not tied to productive output, stimulus without corresponding output growth, interest-bearing credit expansion for consumption

This type of money requires taxation to remove excess money & prevent inflation

If new money is issued to create new productive output, the money supply increases in proportion to real wealth

Examples:

Building infrastructure, funding energy projects, paying workers to produce real goods & services or capital investments with measurable output

If production rises faster than money supply, no inflation occurs

In such cases, taxation is not required to offset the issuance, because real-world value backs the currency expansion

After the Weimar hyperinflation & Great Depression, Germany introduced Mefo Bills in 1934

It was a government-created promissory note issued to construction & industrial companies

They were not backed by gold, not borrowed from banks, backed by future labor & productive output & used to fund public work

Money was issued only when workers produced output

Idle labor was turned into productive labor

Factories, infrastructure & goods increased alongside the money supply

The credit carried no compounding interest & money was created only to mobilize productive capacity, not consumption or speculation

When money creation matches real productivity, inflation does not occur

Germany reduced unemployment from 30% to 0% in a few years without runaway inflation

Inflation problems emerged later only when issuance shifted to unproductive military expansion

Today’s system is a public–private hybrid

Banks create most money via credit, charge interest & expand the money supply

Governments issue bonds purchased by banks & central banks, borrow the currency they themselves issue & tax to control inflation created by both government & private banks

The government effectively outsourced money creation to private banks & then taxes you to stabilize the system for banks profit

They socialize the losses & privatize the gains.

It’s a ponzi scheme & you pay taxes to service the interest on banks debt.

[Julien Bittel, CFA @BittelJulien]

I’ve been seeing a lot of chatter on X about “peak cycle” and how the economy looks late-cycle. So I wanted to tackle this head on and share a few thoughts of my own...

This is from the August 21st MIT publication:

A classic late-cycle economy typically has all the following ingredients:

✅ Manufacturing sentiment is extreme (think ISM ~60)
✅ Services sentiment is extreme
✅ Homebuilder sentiment is extreme
✅ Consumer confidence is high
✅ Worker confidence is high (JOLTS quits rate rising sharply)
✅ Investor sentiment is very bullish
✅ Small business confidence is high
✅ Job openings and hiring plans are rising
✅ Wage data and surveys show accelerating pay increases
✅ CEO confidence is strong and capex is booming

Now, I could add more to this, but when you score all of these inputs and turn them into a single timeseries, here’s what you get (chart 1).

Using data from ISM, NAHB, NFIB, BLS, AAII, The Conference Board, etc., US sentiment, when viewed as a complete picture, remains very subdued. We’re just not even close to the euphoric levels we see late in the business cycle, when everything listed above is stretched to extremes.

Peak cycle is when the ISM rolls over from 60+ to sub-50, inventories unwind, and demand cools. Supply and demand reset, inflation pressures ease, and the cycle eventually recovers out of the slowdown or recession – mostly depending on the extent to which financial conditions tightened during the cycle, particularly late on as central banks hike rates and drain liquidity.

However, based on this full set of indicators, the data is pointing to something very different. This does not look like an above-trend late-cycle economy. It looks much more like an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum.

Another really important factor, and a key reason we believe both the ISM and this sentiment composite will grind higher this year and into 2026, is the sheer scale of central bank easing via rate cuts.

Right now, nearly 90% of central banks are cutting rates. That is extraordinary, and on a forward-looking basis, it is a massive tailwind for the business cycle (chart 2).

By my playbook, the time to start talking late-cycle is when the teal line rolls over and begins to drop, as central banks turn to hiking rates to slow growth. Even then, there’s usually a nine-month lag before higher rates hit the real economy.

Right now, we’re just nowhere near that... in fact, the opposite is true.

To my earlier point, slowdown or recession is largely a function of how much financial conditions tighten late in the cycle. Oil prices are a big part of this equation. When oil runs 50% above trend, that represents a massive tightening and has almost always signaled recession, looking back to the early 1970s.

However, right now, we are nearly 20% below trend and still falling, which shows this component of financial conditions is still easing (chart 3).

Also, as I’ve pointed out many times in previous reports, when you look at Temporary Help Services, it has early-cycle vibes written all over it (chart 4).

Rising growth from deeply negative levels is an early-cycle dynamic. It tells you the economy is in recovery mode, not rolling over.

Late-cycle is the opposite: positive year-on-year growth that’s slowing, which reflects an overheated economy losing steam.

Why is unemployment still rising?

Because it lags the cycle. Jobs data is a six-month look in the rear-view mirror.

Here’s the thing: full-time hires are expensive. Benefits, pensions, overhead…

So what do businesses do first?

They typically increase overtime hours and bring in temp workers. Only when they feel confident do they finally lock in full-time staff. That way, they can scale without locking themselves into long-term payroll commitments.

So, this isn’t late-cycle. It’s early-cycle (growth up + inflation down = Macro Spring), soon transitioning to mid-cycle (growth up + inflation up = Macro Summer).

That’s how I see it, anyway...

[Casper Hauser @HauserCasper]

@LadyFaceIII @JamesSurowiecki It yet another liberal demoralization project. You are correct

[Casper Hauser @HauserCasper]

@nypost These ears are made for sniffing

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Oden is right. Here's why:

[Casper Hauser @HauserCasper]

@YourAnonCentral Has @IfindRetards found you yet? Because you are a whale of a retard

[Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) @infraa_]

Trump doesn't get it (at all)
A system that prioritizes an ever-increasing trade deficit, in exchange for capital inflows that exclusively enrich the top 1%, cannot continue indefinitely.
The dollar has Dutch Disease.

Short primer:
As the US imports more than they export, this leads to a worsening of the balance of trade, one of the main components of the 'current account'

In short, we spend way more on imports, than we make in income off our exports

So where does all that money that we spend on imports come from, since our 'income' can't cover it?

1. Issuing Treasury bonds (increasing national debt)
2. Portfolio Investment (capital inflows into our stocks, bonds and other securities)
3. Foreign Direct Investment (foreign capital investment in infrastructure, real estate, etc.)

Any deficit in our current account (the balance of trade being the main component of 'current account') *must* be balanced by an equal and corresponding inflow of capital into our country.

Every dollar we use to pay China for their cheap trinkets, must be offset by an *inflow* of capital into our markets.

Here we see how beneficial that is for corporate profits

The correlation coefficient in the lower pane shows how strong of a correlation these two metrics have, with the correlation weakening with recessions but remaining strong, overall
**As the trade balance worsens, corporate profits increase**

Now, let's see how that's been working out for our stock market:

And here, we see the effect that this worsening trade deficit has on our fiscal deficit (remember, issuing US debt is one way to balance the BOT)

Now, this increasing fiscal deficit would *appear* to indicate that the dollar should have been weakening.

But it hasn't
All of these financial inflows (over $220B a quarter) help to bolster the value of the dollar. This strong demand for US assets drives the value of the dollar up, which, in turn, leads to our exports becoming more and more uncompetitive, further worsening the trade deficit.

This is Triffin's dilemma. This is the dynamic that Trump clearly does not seem to understand.

And finally, the most important chart of all:

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Most of what I am reading about tariffs is misguided. Here is a quick primer on how I understand what’s happening. Using the Casio.

1- I am convinced the calculus backed-up from a desired outcome both on an aggregate level and at country level in the case of China / EZ

1/10

[Alex Krüger @krugermacro]

Market views update

Markets crawl higher if headlines remain neutral to benign this week, then freeze as we await April 2nd, which is reciprocal tariffs day announcement or, as Trump called it, Liberation Day.

April 2nd is similar to election night. It is the biggest event of the year by an order of magnitude. 10x more important than any FOMC, which is a lot. And anything can happen.

Trump could go soft, in which case markets would rally fast and furiously. Or could go half-way, adding uncertainty on timelines, in which case markets would take out the stops of all longs and shorts. Or go all out, in which case markets could easily crash another 10% to 15%, fast.

In worst case scenario sh*t would hit the fan then tariffs would start coming off as Trump negotiates hard in the following month, in which case peak negativity would hit around week 2 of April, which would coincide with US Tax Day.

The US economy is still strong, but will highly likely slow down due to tariffs regardless of the path Trump chooses. But every economist already expects a very sharp economic slow-down into year end. Which means, it is already largely priced-in.

Will share a more thorough update on views around tariffs, probabilities, and their economic impact this week time allowing.

Either way, you all want to be prepared and ready to act on "Liberation Day". It will be big.

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

Thoughts on this?
If @realDonaldTrump was serious about enacting real CHANGE that benefits low-to-middle-income American families, he should want the stock market to #crash (and then recover as his pro-growth policies are implemented).

Reminder: the stock market BOOMED under President Biden because of his failed K-shaped economic policies. No disruption to Biden's bull market means politically connected #capital is still winning the battle against #labor by a wide, politically disruptive margin.

We'll find out how serious @POTUS is about fixing this toxic imbalance in the coming months. CC @elonmusk @SecScottBessent @howardlutnick

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Global M2 vs bitcoin update

[Bill Barhydt @billbar]

Ya’ll never change.

Bitcoin is now experiencing its 11th 25%+ correction in ten years and every time everyone reacts like the sky is falling and every time everyone screams that it’s different this time.

This pullback looks, smells and feels 100% just like 2017 to me. Rising fiat liquidity leading to massive asset price gains.

Right now the new admin has decided that we need:
1. Lower treasury rates to refinance debt
2. Lower mortgage rates to unlock the housing and CRE markets
3. Lower treasury rates to save banks from their collective insolvency

China is in a deep recession and needs lower U.S. rates to support its own money printing regime. And print they will.

We’re likely going to see massive job cuts via government cuts, tech cuts and housing related cuts. At the same time ISM will likely rise for the next several months.

All of this tells us liquidity will continue to flow and the markets will do what they always do in this type of cycle. That liquidity will flow into stocks, Bitcoin, crypto and real estate.

Once again… buckle up… 🚀🚀

[Casper Hauser @HauserCasper]

@krystalball @IfindRetards

[Ethereum @ethereum]

0/ Exploring the world of onchain art, a guest thread by @lukeweaver_eth

“The greatest artists of the 21st century won’t make paintings, they’ll make programs.”

Today, we’re highlighting artists and projects that are only possible on Ethereum

🧵👇

[Casper Hauser @HauserCasper]

@culturaltutor Tom Wolfe’s from ‘bauhaus to our house’ is a great read on this

[Nik @cointradernik]

I think it’s pretty clear that what we’re seeing is the lagged effect of this period of severely tightening financial conditions (itself augmented by tariff volatility)

It’s also why I don’t think it makes any sense to be bearish on the rest of 2025

You’re now seeing those tight financial conditions unwound by the weakness caused by those very same tight financial conditions — it’s reflexive

This in turn *should* mean slowdown leads to rebound not slowdown leads to recession as the lagged effects of easing financial conditions plays out precisely the inverse of what we’re seeing now

[Kyle Chassé 🐸 @Kylechasse]

Bitcoin is crashing.

Wondering why?

The cash & carry trade that’s been suppressing BTC’s price is now unwinding.

Here’s how it worked—and why its collapse is sending shockwaves through the market. 🧵👇

[Casper Hauser @HauserCasper]

@TaraAnnThieke Wow where is this image from?

[Casper Hauser @HauserCasper]

@Bubblebathgirl Lex Luther?