Hav's Conquest

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[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

People are making real money with prediction market arbitrage. But the "zero risk" part everyone's selling on CT? It's a bit misleading.

The concept is simple:
• Buy YES on one platform
• Buy NO on another
If the combined price is under $1, you profit regardless of the outcome.

For example – Polymarket at 52¢ NO, Kalshi at 43¢ YES.
You're basically just buying $1 for 95.4¢.
It's simple, and it works. (most of the time)
Then why is this strategy still not 100% safe?

Here's why:

1. 𝙍𝙚𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙠
Different platforms have different rules for what counts as "yes." During the 2024 government shutdown debate, Polymarket resolved YES while Kalshi resolved NO on the same event. The exact same bet, but different outcomes.

2. 𝙁𝙚𝙚𝙨
Polymarket US charges 0.01% per trade. Kalshi charges 0.7%. Polymarket International takes 2% on net winnings. That 3% arbitrage just became 1-2% net. Depending on the situation, it can even become negative.

3. 𝙇𝙞𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙮
The spreads exist because volume is thin. By the time you place both orders, the price has already moved. The opportunity you calculated now suddenly doesn't exist anymore.

Can you make money doing this? Yes.
Lots of users use this strategy, especially with bots.

Is it passive income with zero risk? No.
But this is a risk users are willing to take.

If you want to try this:
• Start with a low amount to test ($100 - 200)
• Use two platforms only
• Manually track every fee
• See what your PnL looks like after 10 trades
• Decide if it's worth scaling

Research. Test. Implement.

⌂ Follow @HavConquest to stay ahead.

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@AndyAyrey I know you get this Q a lot, but do you have any ETA on @Upward_Earth?

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@davidonchainx God forbid we use em dashes in post.

Why do you think AI uses em dashes so often?
Because humans use them when writing.

They're a normal part of any content piece.

This comment section is a bunch of em dash demonizers.

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@BleapApp 15$ per person? Lifechanging 💀

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

Great list for those that are building something unique

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@jussy_world @Cupseyy His trades can't be copied or what? We all wanna be rich

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@hunterhammonds Already building 💪

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@andychuxbt I'll take 3 things that didn't happen to go, please

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@IncomeSharks Only for US users, though.

Quitte unfortunate..

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@fipcrypto Where do you plan to monetize next? X? Mind sharing your strategy going forward?

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@CryptoGorilla Good profit for the earliest users only.

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@ASvanevik @sassal0x Is he not allowed to evolve and change an opinion after 4 years?

I see it as a move in a right direction. Learning and evolving.

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@icobeast An allocation bigger than $1*

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@offgridcash Privacy is not an option, it's a necessity.

Can't wait to see what the team is building!

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@IncomeSharks Can ETH pick a direction? It seems very undecisive lately.

Not just ETH, the entire market feels very weird and unconventional in the past 6 months.

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@icobeast Is this you, Beast?

[Fogo @fogo]

Fogo is cancelling the December 17th presale. Our preference has shifted to allocating more resources to the airdrop.

We have taken a snapshot of Fogo Fishers, Portal Bridge points holders, and all USDC transfers since the initial presale announcement. We will attribute Fogo Flames to these groups.

We value the strong, positive support received. Rest assured, we have taken note.

The Fogo Flames points program remains a central pillar to give meaningful distribution to developers, community members and ecosystem participants.

The first rewards will drop alongside our full public launch on January 13th.

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@fogo Instead of doing a presale at such a big FDV, you prioritized the users who stress-tested and helped improve your chain.

This is what a project prioritizing the community looks like.

Well done, team.

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@zksync What is the backend chef cooking? 👀

[Hav's Conquest @HavConquest]

@icobeast So instead of Christmas, traders get to celebrate a Merry Liquidation Day