Hawk Φ

📈 Full-Time Crypto Trader (8+ Years | 12K+ Hours)
📚 Psych | Cycles | PA | Vortex △ | Astro | Fib
🖥️ Ex-CTO | INTP

Creator of the Hawk Liquidation Theory

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

The final weeks of Bitcoin's bull run.. Last fumes might push it to 120k-130k at best.

Massive bear market is looming on the horizon. Stay focused.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@KaiXCreator It's a negotiation tactic by US. They understand that choking Anthropic revenue internationally, will make billions in investments flee if not resolved.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@millionare11408 Should start rotating up soon

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

With the below played out, it's time to re-evaluate the HTF projection. At this stage, we are likely seeing a lot of capitulation into support - months of negative sentiment, wars and economic panic.

All as we expected, of course. While the sub 10k levels are active (circa 2029 projected target), the immediate focus right now on the medium term is generally towards the upside.

It would be very natural at this stage, to see Bitcoin re-test 108k one more time, and given how oversold altcoins are, they should see a significant rally (Even a DCB would mean several X runs on many coins).

One word of caution, as the probabilistic nature of markets dictates that we be aware of alternative plays; should this strong support start seeing a breakdown, we will see sub 25k very quickly.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

BTC Macro Update

First of all, I want to say if anyone has been liquidated during last night's altcoin capitulation, do not despair. For many, this is an initiation rite into the more advanced stages of being a trader, the moment of humbling where the ego dissolves and you become far more objective and resilient. Money is just a tool, you will make more, but this experience is priceless. Almost every successful trader that I know, has been on the brink of total annihilation at least once - including myself in the early days.

Going forward, the current Bitcoin view remains largely the same as before, we are still in the major resistance that I've been speaking about for years, albeit in the very final stages now. As you can see, the price action has been inside an inducement stage (HLT) for a while now, and we are very close (relatively speaking) to entering the Liquidation stage.

It is my belief that Bitcoin is largely going to range between 105k and 130k for the next few months, till the next major Astro date (19th Jan 2026). Around that time, we should already be seeing signs of reversal down.

Till then, I believe we're going back to ATH (forming the HTF topping formation / distribution), and according to the cycle theory, Altcoins should be outperforming.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@GribdoGoinz Around 2029, not a focus for now.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@millionare11408 If you read the quoted post from last year, it mentioned 19 Jan 2026 as the start for a crash.

Regardless, it's true alts have taken quite a beating, but are now finally showing some signs of strength against bitcoin's last dump.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

Anyone else bidding PEPE?

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@CryptoCapo_ @XdBadem17683 Grok analysis, same as the one I ran on my profile.

~75% directional accuracy on macro calls.

https://t.co/MT45J9Xurq

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

Yeah I agree, a lot of things point up. Has been that way for months now.

In general this is a threshold, probabilistically. Odds are for a strong DCB esp Alts, but the alternative low odd scenario is 50k breaks down, and takes the price to sub 25k very fast.

My stance for now is bullish though.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@nobrainflip Very close, but the pump will be faster, and the dip will be deeper. Good job.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@TheLastTrueG Enjoy :)

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

Since I have gotten a lot of requests on how to use the NeuraLib Deep Learning Runtime in PineScript, I have created a free, open source indicator.

This acts both as a demonstration of the library techniques, its potential in smart-indicator applications and for the non-devs a neural powered indicator to experiment with in market analysis.

You can find it on my TradingView profile.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@Prathkum You think current AI is expensive? Haha, wait till their subsidy period ends. They are all running at huge losses if you read their financials.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@LanaElys Bad take, doesn't account for the physical configuration (ion sparks across synapses, electrochemical gradients, action potentials - all can be critical for the conscious experience).

It's about how energy flows.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

Bearish Order Flow continues without any bullish shifts, and no real pullbacks yet to short on.

Looking at a 3D chart though we can see one point of interest being 57k, where this HTF Bullish Order Block gets fully mitigated.

After that, the immediate HTF liquidity sits around 78k, with higher targets later.

The CVMI Oscillator (probability gauge) is also in bullish territory last seen at 15k lows in 2022.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

Can you see what the Institutions are doing with Bitcoin?

For the last two months, there has been classic bullish order flow with high volume bidders (whales and institutions) stepping in at key OrderBlock zones.

Until recently in the middle of May, an imbalance in the regular flow has occurred, where a large amount of Bids have been absorbed by sellers. This happens when a trend gets overcrowded and the nature of the bids shift from smart flow to retail flow.

Following this absorption of bids, we have seen a structural shift downwards and a new bearish OB form, effectively trapping the retail buyers below breakeven.

Now that the institutional target has been reached and liquidity taken, we are seeing fresh bids come in.

Here is how the Institutional Imbalance Framework (link in Bio) was able to show us key OrderBlocks, Structure Shift thresholds and even the Institutional Liquidity Target (72.5k):

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

Here's a follow up, looking at the Institutional Framework:

First thing we can see is that the Bullish Structure Shift Line from the previous update did not break, price could not clear above 74k and so the squeeze into the 77k liquidity pool could not happen.

Second thing we can see, is that we have a significant liquidity pool at 72.2k. Given that we are currently in bearish order flow, that is a zone that will likely be defended for now.

The ideal case here, is that we pump from around 66k into that liquidity pool, and then come back to re-test the lows. This would make a better foundation to attack that Red OB and Shift line at 74k.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@0xaporia It just depends on the person. You can usually tell they are smart when they explain a mechanism through primitives rather than through itself.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@VictorTaelin @witcheer https://t.co/Btt9u8WQ6e

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

It seems we will soon see different types of AI (LLMs): those that compress global knowledge (weighing terabytes; Oracle) and those with exceptional reasoning abilities using given knowledge (weighing megabytes to gigabytes; Reasoner).

An interface between the two will likely emerge. Specific domain applications will use only the Reasoner (e.g., solving math equations or software tasks), while general applications (e.g., search engines) will have a Reasoner interfacing with the Oracle.

The revelation will be that a Reasoner can run on small devices, such as mobiles and smart gadgets, using only necessary information to fulfill its tasks, while rivaling the intelligence of current state-of-the-art LLMs that try to be both an Oracle and a Reasoner simultaneously.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

I don't agree at all. I believe the substrate is what enables the internal experience. Sure maybe some materials can be changed, but the way energy flows is vital for it.

Saying something is conscious simply by its external behavior, ignoring its base components would be equal to saying a book is conscious because it contains words a human would say.

I'm talking about ion sparks across synapses, electrochemical gradients, action potentials among other things can be critical for qualia. Silicon chips, even if they compute the same functions, have very different physics (digital voltage switches, electron flow through transistors).

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

Yes the power law in Bitcoin is a fascinating discovery, even as I believe it will ultimately transform into something more complex in the coming years, with a deeper bear market than usual.

Investigating its potential transformation is on my list of plans, but there are clues on lower timeframes.

[Hawk Φ @Hawk_Finance]

@Giovann35084111 That guy is just farming engagement, not a real analyst