๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ฆ๐ง ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฆ ๐จ๐ก๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ข๐ ๐ฆ๐ข ๐๐๐ฅ!!! ๐ถ๐คซ
โ Felix Gill ML @ 4.00 / +300
๐ต +3.00U
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If You ๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐ โค๏ธ๐ซต
I donโt think you understand this call, I have been on vacation all week partying, not watching a minute of tennis and I hopped off the plane poorly and hungover and the first thing I do is bet on a +400 underdog to beat a in form and dangerous player like Alex Molcan, this is why I gamble, this is why I have a twitter account and this is why you follow me. They say all I do is show British tennis players too much love, I say I understand them better THANK YOU. ROLAND GARROS LETS FUCKING HAVE IT IM COMING FOR YOUR NECK FREE SOPRANOSPICKS FUCK THE ๐ง
๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต
Roland Garros ๐ซ๐ท
Andreeva ML @ 2.10 / +110 (1.5U)
Wager Placed On @DuelbitsSports
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If Youโre Tailing โค๏ธ๐
I could sit here and produce a make belief write up for this bet or I could be completely honest with you on the fact I am placing this bet out of pure hate for Marta Kostyuk. You see I have already accepted that one rat will win a Roland Garros trophy this year but I absolutely canโt deal with another rat winning one and itโs just the perfect scenario in my head, Andreeva gets a revenge win, Kostyuk loses to a Russian again and she doesnโt turn the Roland Garros final speech into a political discussion, everybodyโs a winner. Obviously hate aside, Kostyuk is undefeated on clay and a hell of a tennis player, improved so much, just a shame she is a very unlikable person, donโt tail this if your looking for a edge, tail if you want to see a downfall.
2 Unit Pick โ๏ธ
๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ต๐ฎ๐บ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Shimabukuro ML @ 1.80 / -125 (2U)
Wager Placed On @DuelbitsSports
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If Youโre Tailing โค๏ธ๐
Elias Ymer managed to beat Christopher OโConnell in straight sets today but let me be the first to tell you this is another fluke win and OโConnell just looked dreadful out there, he put a-bit of effort into the first set but was making stupid errors, hobbling at times and displayed awful body language and pretty much tanked the second set after failing to close out the first set. I have to wonder if he was carrying some sort of injuryโฆ
He has also beaten Shimabukuro at Wimbledon two years ago and I actually tipped him to win there if you remember, we also took his -1.5 sets but that was because Shimabukuro wasnโt looking great them days but I think he will get his revenge today.
Shimabukuro has his ups and downs but when grass season comes around you always want to keep an eye on him as heโs pulled off some upsets on the surface in the past. Heโs a very effective baseliner who can grind and hit precise forehands, his serve is decent but his consistency and composure are big factors, he can grind some errors out of Ymer, who is more than capable of breaking himself with errors.
Got to remember Shimabukuro has got some big wins in his short career, had more success as of late, a higher ceiling and Ymer is more comfortable on indoor courts.
2 Unit Pick โ๏ธ
๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐บ๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐ต๐ฎ๐บ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
Felix Gill +3.5 @ 1.91 / -110 (2U)
Wager Placed On @DuelbitsSports
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If Youโre Tailing โค๏ธ๐
Just want to start this write up by saying I am not as big on Felix Gill on grass as I was on clay, I think he can play on all surfaces but he is at his best on clay just for the record. Itโs also worth mentioning this event is dealing with rain delays daily so keep that in mind.
When we put that aside, Felix Gill has improved tremendously this year and looks like he can crack the top 100 whenever he is able to complete three or more matches in a row because right now, that is the main reason heโs losing matches. Against Kyrian Jacquet he was fatigue, he retired against Roman Safiullin after leading the first set and we all saw how good Roman was this clay season, he also retired against Neumayer when we put 3 units against him because I knew he was tired and couldnโt win. Obviously, we donโt have fatigue concerns here as its only a second match and in general points on grass are much quicker and donโt require as much physicality as clay so thats a good sign for him.
Another thing I want to mention is look how Felix Gill performs when heโs up against higher calibre of players, pushed PCB to three sets after taking the first, almost beat Safiullin in straights before his body gave up, beat a very inform Alex Molcan at his own game. These types of performances show us Felix Gill is 100% top 100 level, he just hasnโt made it there yet.
Gill has a good pop behind his forehand, he has improved his serve alot and has a variety of shots to chose from whilst boasting excellent movement and rally tolerance, he isnโt just a grinder or pusher but he can also dictate rallies and play the aggressor and I think he will be a tricky task for Kamil Majchrzak, who doesnโt really have any weapons but is very consistent. If this was on clay iโd probably try the moneyline too but +3.5 seems reasonable here, Gill is trending in the right direction, he will be top 100 next year iโd hope.
๐๏ธ ๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ญ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ฒ
ATP: Tyler Challenger ๐บ๐ธ
(2U) Mayo ML @ 1.59 / -169
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If Youโre Tailing ๐๐ค
Shick is a decent player but he has looked awful coming through qualification here, Aidan Mayo is riding some momentum coming into this one, just beat Butvilas and Monday (Monday win isnโt as good since heโs just come back from a nasty injury). Even if we look at Mayoโs last three losses they are to respectable challenger level competition. Mayo has a decent serve and forehand combo and he works so hard on conditioning, just a really hard working player who will make you earn everything, like him to continue that momentum here.
โ +1.50U
I donโt even want you to like if you tailed, I just want you to know 19 years old me that staked 20 units on underdogs and used to throw thousands down the minute a capper disagreed with my pick would be ashamed of what I have succumbed to these days, iโm sick of having good reads that were โso closeโ just had to see a few go through today for confidence reasons, this wonโt be permanent
๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฃ
ATP: Tyler Challenger ๐บ๐ธ
(3U) Cassone ML @ 1.50 / -200
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If Youโre Tailing ๐๐ค
Line just got released and could move more soon, this is a layup for Murphy Cassone his game suits the conditions and a clear skill gap between the two.
๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฃ
ATP: Tyler Challenger ๐บ๐ธ
(3U) Cassone ML @ 1.50 / -200
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If Youโre Tailing ๐๐ค
Line just got released and could move more soon, this is a layup for Murphy Cassone his game suits the conditions and a clear skill gap between the two.
๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐ฃ
Roland Garros ๐ซ๐ท
(3U) Berrettini ML @ 1.53 / -190
Hit ๐๐๐๐ - If Youโre Tailing ๐๐ค
Adding another 3 units onto Matteo Berrettini at some laughable odds but honestly I think this is a very fair price when you consider what I have to say.
I donโt want to bet on a game spread or set spread because whenever you get greedy karma really bites you in the ass so iโm willing to eat juice in this case for me risking 3 units ($900) still generates a reasonable return but if you want more value I of course recommend adding Coleman Wong like I did for the 1.5U play, the issue is Wong was -300 last night and he is now -500 so the odds will be slightly lower.
Look, to see Matteo Berrettini beat the fitness allegations is amazing, he comes through a tough five settor and then follows it up with a straight set win against a dangerous pusher in JM Cerundolo and the fact is Matteo Berrettini is at his best on grass but he can compete on all surfaces, he holds a 70% win percentage in clay, he has won big titles, he is 8-4 at Roland Garros and he has way more big stage experience than Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi is elite at retrieving balls and defensive play but the thing is Matteo Berrettiniโs power trumps that, you canโt get into these defensive grind fests when Berrettini is launching a kick serve at 200+ kmh at you and even if you do return it good luck dealing with the and one forehand. Of course there will be points Arnaldi will be able to extend rallies, force a error from Berrettini or expose his movement but like I said the serve and forehand is bread and butter, if it doesnโt work in one point, Berrettini will just do it again and again till it does.
Then you have to consider Matteo Arnaldi is incapable of winning free points like Berrettini. I think Arnaldiโs serve is his weak point and Matteo can scorch it if he plays aggressively on return like he usually does. Arnaldi isnโt a natural clay courter either, his game just clicks on the surface because of his defence.
If Matteo Arnaldi can turn the majority of points into long rallies its obviously going to swing the pendulum in his favour massively but I just donโt see that happening when Berrettini has such a huge power and experience advantage. He has the serve, he can approach the net better, mix in the serve and volley, has the power behind his forehand and the topspin to dictate and all Arnaldi can do is try and expose his movement or weaker backhand, which if he does, kudos to him.