Hayloo Unchained

A private Swiss crypto fund. Discreet by culture, blunt by nature.

We run a book, real size, real risk — and once a week we put the whole read in writing.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

This is the cycle sorting the shitcoin goats from the altcoin sheep. The big dying is under way, and the crowd only notices because parts of the market have simply stopped existing.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Solana’s outperform run is 884 days against a 331-day median, the longest in its record - that one is a regime, not a coincidence.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Markets aren’t trading assets anymore, they’re trading real yields, the price of money, and nothing else.

- Jordi Federer

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Coins in heavily regulated corners like XRP ran on bond plumbing and CLARITY Act hopes. Nothing here is settled.

https://t.co/xYjP0iKTmr

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

The story of this week - a market celebrating its own life support.

It’s like a smoking cancer patient.

The cigar glims as long as Japan keeps lending, and nobody asks what the AI build costs at these yields.

https://t.co/1f3UjANOBr

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Our case for holding on to our Bitcoin short positions is the profitability of weak hands, the lack of buyer conviction, the speculative liquidity cycle, and none of the three moved against us this week.
https://t.co/KFoVnwDYHq

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

The buyer rail at $71,882 - the level we named a month ago to prove our own trade wrong got reclaimed this week. Long-term holders sold into the strength for a seventh straight week. Futures open interest fell 6.5% while price climbed.

Leverage left before the rally arrived.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

NEW Hayloo's Tape out now!

https://t.co/X9kTQiHSEK

"The Fed still thinks they’re in charge"

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Yields fell, assets ran, Bitcoin’s drowning buyers surfaced, and the whole world turned green off an operation that added not one new dollar to the system.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

In case you were wondering why that Burrito cost you 20 bucks…

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

The size of the buyback isn’t the interesting part.

The question is whether Treasury is moving from providing liquidity to actively trying to contain long-term yields.

If that line starts to blur, the implications are much bigger than a $4B buyback.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US Treasury announces it will double the size long-term US government debt buybacks following the rapid surge in US Treasury yields.

Repurchases of $2 billion will now be increased to "at least" $4 billion, the US Treasury said.

The move is intended to provide "liquidity support" for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years as total US debt nears $40 trillion.

There is the intervention we have been calling for.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

AI has spent the year trading on growth.

But as the buildout becomes increasingly capital intensive, the cost of funding that growth matters more.

With long-term yields near multi-decade highs, could rates become the biggest risk to the AI trade?

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Strategy sold $334M of $MSTR shares last week.

Bitcoin purchased: $0.

Instead, the company is prioritizing preferred stock, cash reserves and its credit business.

Its USD reserve now sits at $4.8B.

A notable change in how the Bitcoin machine is allocating capital.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Check out last weeks Macro Board.

Next read comes out tomorrow.

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https://t.co/RNtwEa3kMc

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Sellers are exhausted and half the supply is still in profit. Call that a recognisable bottoming zone. Those readings were also true in November 2018, three weeks before the market fell another fifty percent.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

Inflation in lockstep with growth is good. Bitcoin does not follow. Inflation beyond growth is bad. Bitcoin only follows the arbitrage. No inflation but growth is bad. That's Bitcoin. Bitcoin is poor money. Max knows that. But he holds so much of it, that he might as well dump it on you.

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

I am an eternal optimist, and am actually starting to really be bothered by my own skepticism and cynicism about the world.

I don't see how you can be a free thinking human being and look around at our systems and think, "yeah, I totally support this."

[Defiant L’s @DefiantLs]

Coinbase killed the CLARITY Act markup in January. Now they’re doing it again. One company holding an entire industry's future hostage to protect its own revenue.

[Hayloo Unchained @HaylooUnchained]

What’s the difference