Hedge Fund Alpha

Hedge fund intelligence at retail prices.
Large focus on the top under the radar emerging managers.
(Formerly Valuewalk Premium)

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[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

ValueAct "Rocket is our biggest new investment of 25. Our thesis is simple idea: this is not just a mortgage firm it is a tech platform in one of the most consumer-hostile, fragmented, and bureaucratic categories of American finance." Q2 letter $RKT

https://t.co/acLevmuURS

[LST @LongShortTrader]

I'm sure luck has benefited Situational, however

(1) I think the below viral post (that it's all been marketing) is false and thus it may be at risk bearing false testimony: "You shall not bear false testimony"

(2) I can't read people's minds, but it is also written: "You shall not covet your neighbor’s house; you shall not covet your neighbor’s wife, or his male servant, or his female servant, or his ox, or his donkey, or anything that is your neighbor’s"
https://t.co/BHEve6ljNj

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

@nahushabiotec @bubbleboi Is he long those names? We thought he just liked intel

[Mo Shaikh 🇺🇸 @Moshaikh]

Citadel, is one of the most significant hedge funds, and they just dropped tokenomics …

And it’s not what you would have expected

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

At such an enormous valuation (is not attractive)

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

Seth klarman at the iConnections Global Alts conference in New York says that Google was obviously cheap when he bought it, and that it is going to be big when it comes to AI.

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

Klarman says owning the LLMs is not a Warren Buffett bet. It requires the companies to constantly invest in their product to maintain an edge.

That is such an enormous valuation.

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

He says he's 67 and he sees himself managing Baupost for another 10 years. He doesn't want to stay when he's too old; he wants to hand it off when it's the right time, but he probably still has many good years left in him for now.

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

As we clarified before, he's not buying or building actual data centers, besides that one investment he mentioned.

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

See more here https://t.co/5kDo0FD8NQ

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

1/ While most investors are chasing AI winners, Seth Klarman is looking somewhere else entirely.

Baupost is hunting AI agnostics and perceived AI losers. 🧵

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

Klarman reads whatever he can on AI. He listens to podcasts and thinks Dario (the CEO of Anthropic) is doing a good job and is thoughtful.

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

The market cap aspect is more interesting. Only two are above 100 billion, and one of those is just barely.

SpaceX is going to be at 1.8 trillion, Anthropic and OpenAI should be in the trillion range.

Just a few years ago, a $75 billion IPO was considered big .

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

Top tech IPO’s of the decade and their revenue multiples per bbg. Only $RIVN has exceeded SpaceX’s multiple, and $RIVN is down 88% from their IPO.

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

3/ Speaking at @iconnections_io Global Alts New York 2026, Klarman revealed where Baupost is finding value while the market obsesses over AI.

His favorite area today? Commercial real estate.

His single best idea? Assisted living.

Full interview:

https://t.co/mcAsrUjxkE

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

1/ While most investors are chasing AI winners, Seth Klarman is looking somewhere else entirely.

Baupost is hunting AI agnostics and perceived AI losers. 🧵

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

2/ Klarman says software credits, travel, roofing, housing-related businesses, and select commercial real estate opportunities are being ignored as capital floods into AI.

Meanwhile, Baupost continues to own $AMZN and $GOOGL while avoiding the trillion-dollar private AI names.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP ON STAKE IN AI COMPANIES: WILL MEET WITH TOP 15 EXECUTIVES SHORTLY

[Variant @VariantMkt]

Citadel just released its Tokenomics research. Worth a read for all semis and software investors on X.

According to Citadel, the best returns will come from companies that lower Ai costs and improve efficiency, not those building the best models.

- AI is hitting economic limits. Citadel's message is that the constraint is no longer model capability—it's token costs, compute, power, and inference budgets.
- Customers are already optimizing for cost. Rising token bills are pushing users toward cheaper models and more efficient workflows, suggesting AI demand may be more price-sensitive than investors assume.

[John Scott-Railton @jsrailton]

NEW: malware developers added nuclear & biological weapons text to to their spyware.

Goal? To trigger LLM safety refusals... so that their spyware wouldn't be analyzed by an AI security scanner.

Cleanest practical example I can think of for why over-indexing on first order safety alignment is risky.

When closed (and open) models ship with aggressive refusals, they will be sprinkled with second-order blindspots that attackers will discover...and exploit.

We are only in the earliest days of attackers leveraging these features, and it wouldn't surprise me if users systems that need to handle complex cybersecurity issues demand that models be less safety-blunted.

In the weeds: @SocketSecurity's post also shows why intention matters in how you design a malware analysis pipeline to avoid prompt manipulation.

H/T to colleagues that shared this with me https://t.co/f3Aj9TYxU4

[boaz weinstein @boazweinstein]

I’ve purposefully never come close to owning a share of Nick Trainwreck’s investment trust. It would be laughable if it weren’t so sad for shareholders that @thetimes lets him use our name in vain to distract from the impossibly bad performance. Maybe the journalist should instead ask how a long-only equity fund is down 50% over the past years?

https://t.co/IUhWqKCQJU