Nick Scheid

Consumer Retail Analyst @ Hedgeye - Not Investment Advice

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$HELE reports tomorrow morning. Easy comp should get topline back to growth, but that's not the real question for me. Watching whether the top 5 customers (especially $WMT, $AMZN, and $TGT) keep outgrowing the total business as a % of sales, or if that concentration finally starts to roll, and whether specialty/DTC can pick up any slack if it does.

[Ian Lukasik @HedgeyeRetail_3]

Natural and LGD prices in freefall. $SIG stuck in increasingly competitive low-end market with core banners and ZERO barriers to entry in LGD. Don't think pushing upmarket is the right answer as LGD continues taking share in bridal and fashion desirability will always fall with the bigger names. Up today on premarket upgrade but think this is a perma-share loser over the long term. Sticking with the short here.

@HedgeyeRetail @HedgeyeRetail_4

[TickerTrends 🔬 @tickerplus]

$ADS is outpacing $NKE in World Cup social activity.

Adidas is taking 69% share of combined World Cup mention volume vs Nike at 31%, with the same lead showing up on TikTok views at 59% vs 41%.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

@HedgeyeRetail_3 Exactly. These water bottle brands typically remain relevant for 2 to 6 years. Hydroflask had its time in 2019 and has since fallen off completely. Vinepair has a great graphic showing the timeline of popular water bottles and how quickly the fad fades.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

Earnings Next Week: $HELE ripped on the "no longer going bankrupt" narrative. But solvent doesn't mean healthy. Only one owned brand has a real moat (Osprey). HydroFlask's big 2026 innovation was to make a size that can barely fit a cup of coffee. Where's the growth coming from?

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

@HedgeyeRetail_3 @HedgeyeRetail The Adidas USA shirt looks better than Nike's

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

The issue is also that $ADDYY rolled out the WC product in November 2025, while $NKE was still rolling out golf products in March 2026! $NKE underestimated the level of competition it would face in its own market when the WC came to town. I'm afraid $ADDYY will win this one...

[Matt McClintock @MattJMcClintock]

$NKE sell-side research today so bad. Nike decided to not spend on a World Cup based in the US! There is ALWAYS a massive acceleration in demand creation the quarter before. Yet these clowns can't understand why growth is underperforming...in the US!

https://t.co/VFyOxtvgMa

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

@HedgeyeRetail_3 @HedgeyeRetail When will people get excited about the functionality of AI glasses? This is sweet!

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

@milian_cap @HedgeyeRetail We expect a slight rerate as topline growth flows through to operating leverage, and this starts to trade more like a growth stock. Past this Q the multiple hinges on the 10-11% EBIT target sticking post-WC.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

Visited the $ADDYY store on Broadway in NYC this weekend, and it was a zoo. ~25 people waiting to try on Adizero and Samba, with a 20+ person line at the register. $ADDYY is as hot as ever with the World Cup traffic driver trickling down to other categories. (Saturday at 1:32 pm)

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

Buyers who want fashion stacking w/o a center stone trade UP to Tiffany or DOWN to $AMZN. Not $SIG.

Blue Nile is SIG's UPMARKET site, yet 30 of 52 best-sellers are cheaper than stacked diamond bands.

SIG chases the low-ticket SKU on the site, meant to take it premium.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$SIG Short

The "wedding ring stack" trend is read as a customization tailwind. We read it as down-market substitution

Two buyers here: low-end shoppers who want flashy & cheap, & women 18-24 wearing it as fashion. Both low ticket. Neither wants to pay for engagement-ring prices

[WWD @wwd]

Why the Wedding Ring Stack Is Becoming the New Bridal Jewelry Standard https://t.co/QAZZItu0d5

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$ONON eyes soccer as the World Cup group stage ends with record viewership. $ONON believes its marathon LightSpray tech will "translate well." The tech could translate, but chasing a new category as brand heat cools reads more like a brand reaching to diversify. Active short.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$RACE marketing chief is out after 16 years, weeks after its first "Honda Civic", the $640K "Luce," was released.

Designed by ex-Apple Jony Ive. Trashed by Ferrari's former chairman. One of the most embarrassing moments in $RACE history.

Ferrari swears this is unrelated. Sure.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

Jordan's new suede shoe coming this fall looks a lot like a suede Converse. Chasing the female consumer makes sense, but since Nike owns both brands, any success probably just cannibalizes Converse.
$NKE
#MichaelJordan #Converse

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

@gauravsbuilding Will it actually create "viral" videos, though? With a massive influx of AI-generated ad content, won't the algo quietly suppress it? The last thing social media needs is more advertising imo.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

Adobe: AI-sourced retail traffic jumped 138% YoY in May 2026, ~14x since Oct 2024.
These shoppers convert 54% better than non-AI, stay 53% longer, and browse 23% more pages.
AI is changing how consumers shop, and select retailers are set to benefit.
$ETSY $AMZN $W $SHOP $WMT

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

The fashion space has fundamentally changed since COVID. Secondhand has consistently outpaced searches for new collections, with secondhand searches seeing search volume 4-6x higher over the last 2 years.

[Nick Scheid @HedgeyeRetail_4]

$ADDYY's new AE3 Mule looks A LOT like the Nike Mind...