@TheTakenUser Why do you think there’s thin volume?
I understand retail demand for this maybe low but there are so many ways to hedge or express stock views through these markets
“Don’t judge a book by its cover” -> everyone judges books by their cover
“Don’t focus on status” -> everyone is obsessed with status
“Be yourself” -> everyone is performing
All advice is a confession about human nature - that the opposite behavior is near-universal
My assessment: Supreme Court will side with Kalshi and CFTC
The definition of ‘swap’ in the Dodd Frank was intentionally broad
Unlike the PASPA case, there's now a federal body (CFTC) that has a clear mandate to regulate swaps. So federal preemption supersedes states' rights
The case will likely make it to Supreme Court but it cuts across typical ideological viewpoints
- Conservative justices are textual originalists, which favors Kalshi since the swap definition is broad. But they are also committed to states’ rights, which favors the states.
- Liberal justices are typically pro-federal regulatory authority but skeptical of financial industry arguments and sympathetic to consumer protection.