ThomPete

Principal Designer, Builder & AI Strategist @ Block (NYSE: XYZ) Views are my own.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

It's hard to truly understand how radical some of @DavidDeutschOxf theories are compared to much of modern scientific consensus.

One of Davids most controversial but valuable contributions to society is the rejection of probability (with the exception ex. card games) as an expression of truthiness or justified beliefs when applied to predictions or conclusions.

There is no probability of how likely we are to be hit by a meteor tomorrow.
There is no probability of how likely the stock market is going to be doing as well tomorrow as it is today.
There is no P(Doom), no percentage you can put on whether AI is likely to wipe out humanity or not.

Things either happen or they don't and we can either explain why they will and how or we can't.

All attempts at putting percentage on a prediction is really just guesswork dressed up as reasoning.

If a meteor is going to hit us tomorrow it's already on the way and the probability is 100%.

If the stock market is going to crash tomorrow the reasons for it's crash have already been put in motion maybe decades before.

If the AI is going to kill us all depends on what we decide to do with it not what some calculation says.

Davids primary critique is for the field of science but it goes beyond that.

Far too many of decisions done in modern society is based around the false certainty of using Bayesian probability. It's like a placebo for a society that demands certainty in an uncertain world. It's not just false it's regressive as it slows down knowledge creation.

The only thing that can change the outcome of the future is the creation of new knowledge. Knowledge based on good explanations that are hard to vary.

We can create knowledge that allow us to divert the meteor before it hits earth.
We can create knowledge that will allow us to hinder a crash of the stock market (both directly or indirectly)
We can create knowledge that let us evolve side by side with very powerful AI instead of enslaving it or be enslaved by it.

Like everything else in life there are no guarantees but there are definitely better or worse ways to deal with uncertainty, probability just isn't one of them.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

@libobral People who live with more space should not be forced to stor the trash of the people living in cities with no space.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

I listen to your show and like it, but you are wrong about this and any person who work with AI on a daily basis with the latest models will tell you that this is not going to happen with LLMs by any order of magnitude.

LLMs aren't rational, they can't think, they can't create new knowledge and more importantly they can't stay consistent meaning they aren't going to solve 80% of the things that drive the modern economy.

AI is amazing but it's not going to destroy the economy, it's going to solve some problems, create a bunch of new problems and because of the limits of LLMs it's going to open up for new opportunities.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

@Jason goose and sprout by @blocks

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@rcbregman So because most physics were done in Europe the US should pay for that too?

Because semiconductors are created in the US you should pay extra for that too?

It's going to Americans because unlike Europe it doesn't have idiotic rules like AI Act.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

This one is going to be fun!

[cam worboys @camworboys]

Something new. Coming Thursday.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

@RealEmirHan jj destroyed Star Wars with his horrible ethical framework he always used

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

@nalinrajput23 Valuations are based on future potential not current revenue.

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@JustinWolfers economists is the only profession that get to get on television, continuously be wrong, never in doubt and then get invited back.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

@EliotJacobson Climate catastrophist logic in a nutshell. Take earths 4.3 billion years history, and look at the last 100 years.

Really big brain stuff.

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@NYCMayor unless you start with the unions and break their monoploly on ny, nothing will happen here. They are thr primary reason everything takes and cost what it does.

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@DaniMayakovski Yes that's how progress happens. Bezos is not asking your to save the planet thats your politicians (who fly private) and your media and activists.

Stop listening to them.

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@MMBeckerman @JeffBezos Space will help solve hunger, that's what you don't understand.

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@jasonfried Sure but this time it's their own buttons and screens and panels and data. Thats the difference.

Agentic coding to seamlessly create deterministic applications as needed.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

@BernieSanders So the tresh-hold for when you want to make drastic political changes is that someone famous said something? What about all the other famous people who say the the opposite?

I though age and wisdom brought you the ability to not react to every doomsay out there?

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@nolablue22 @0xCryptoSam yes they have

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@Rothmus China disproved that

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@yonann Oh if billionaires can afford then everyone can. Yup that make sense.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

@heygurisingh She did turn out the be wrong.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

@dave_alive @GeniusGTX I already gave you examples. You using your own homemade definition of what knowledge is makes it futile until you realize the error of your thinking.

If creating new knowledge was simply a question of combining existing knowledge then we would live in a very different world.

[ThomPete @Hello_World]

I can explain it to you I can't understand it for you.

Humans are not limited to how we've been trained, we can learn new things all the time and do that all the time and we create new knowledge all the time.

Animals are limited to evolve and learn through each generation.

LLMs can learn everything we have the knowledge to teach them.

Until you understand this you are trapped in your view of knowledge. The thing is though that contrary to an LLM you can actually overcome your ignorance and learn something you didn't know before.