Implied probability is a measure of the market's expectation of the likelihood that a specific event will occur. It is calculated using the implied volatility of the option and represents the market's consensus estimate of the probability of a particular outcome (Strike Hit).
12/ Conclusion:
An Iron Condor is not automatically a theta trade.
Sometimes it's a true premium-selling strategy.
Sometimes it's a directional trade wearing a theta costume.
Understanding the difference can completely change how you manage risk.
Not financial advice.
At 4 dte, yesterday, vix volatility from variance is 196%, june Expiry. Strike 35 quote 21 bps. Probability Distribution implied is 98%. Now VIX mean reversion has started
VIX Net GEX 17 June Expiry about -11.7 M.
VX1=17.59
Gamma Squeeze is possible if investors will begin to buy massive cheap vix futures.
MM should rebalance a huge negative Gamma buying underlying & OTM Options.
1/ Most traders know delta.
Some know gamma. Very few understand vanna.
Yet when markets make moves that seem disconnected from price action, vanna is often part of the explanation.