Hester’s Heaters

Cutting-edge baseball news, research, and analysis with the occasional up-n-in heater.

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

#collegesports #mcws #collegebaseball #newseason #OpeningDay

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

We made it. College baseball is finally here! 🥳🎉

In the Thread is the top 25 slate to kick off the season — new roles, new lineups, and a whole lot of questions being answered fast.

What sneaky team do you have making it to Omaha this year?

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

If you had to make daily player evaluation update reports, what are the 3 things that must be in it?

I built an Update Engine in R that generates standardized Team, Hitter, and Pitcher reports with current performance vs preseason projections.

Let me know what you think!! ⤵️

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL East X Factor Pitcher Recap

— Aroldis Chapman: vintage DOMINANCE.
— Clarke Schmidt: great until IL (7/4).
— Shane Baz: small park torched results.
— Tomoyuki Sugano: couldn't crack it.
— Bowden Francis: rocky start then IL (6/17).

Better 2026 season: Chapman or Schmidt? ⬇️

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL East X Factor Hitter Recap

— Trevor Story: big bounce-back season.
— Oswaldo Cabrera: IL since 5/13.
— Junior Caminero: CERTIFIED breakout.
— Jackson Holliday: big step forward from 2024.
— Ernie Clement: solid stats, even better utility man.

Who’s regressing in 2026? 👇

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL East Team Recap

The Blue Jays SHOCKED the world (+12 W) and was the ALE Champion!

The Yankees and Red Sox beat projections and made the postseason as well.

Orioles went from division favorites (68% playoff proj.) to LAST!

Biggest story: TOR surge or BAL collapse? ⬇️

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL Central X Factor Pitcher Recap

— Sean Burke: 1st season but a big 2nd half (3.86 ERA).
— Reese Olson: nasty before IL (7/24).
— Carlos Estévez: league LEADER in saves.
— Joe Ryan: shoved (17th in ERA).
— Luis L. Ortiz: c'mon man.

Who's rising or falling in 2026? 👇

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL Central X Factor Hitter Recap

— Luis Robert Jr.: repeat of 2025.
— Parker Meadows: returned from IL and never got going.
— Jonathan India: contact dipped .
— Royce Lewis: where was the pop?
— Bo Naylor: more disciplined but not enough.

Can any of them rebound in 2026? ⬇️

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL Central Team Recap (End of Season)

What a wild ride in the ALC! The Guardians took the division, once down 15.5 games to the Tigers!

DET still made the postseason (+69.4% playoff proj.) but the Twins and Royals squandered and missed.

Drop the biggest surprise in the ALC! 👇

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL West X Factor Pitcher Recap (End of Season)

— Ronel Blanco: solid until IL (5/19).
— José Soriano: BB and HardHit struggles.
— Bryan Woo: ACE status.
— Robert Garcia: got results with worse metrics.
— Jeffrey Springs: K's way down.

Woo is a top __ pitcher in the league? ⬇️

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL West X Factor Hitter Recap (End of Season)

— Jeremy Peña: officially brokeout.
— Logan O’Hoppe: troubled with contact.
— Victor Robles: IL from 4/7 - 8/23.
— Josh Jung: indicators up, results down.
— Shea Langeliers: HUGE year.

Can Peña and Langeliers keep it going in '26?

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

AL West Team Recap (End of Season)

The Mariners took the West and were the ONLY playoff team!

The Astros began the year as favorites (72% proj. playoffs) but missed. The Rangers had a 50% playoff proj. and missed too.

Bigger surprise: SEA winning it or HOU missing? 👇

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

NL East X Factor Pitcher Recap (End of Season)

— Clay Holmes: solid SP debut.
— Spencer Schwellenbach: shoved before IL (7/2).
— Sandy Alcantara: command struggles.
— MacKenzie Gore: more K's, more Barrels.
— Jordan Romano: disaster year.

Who's taking a step forward in '26?

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

NL East X Factor Hitter Recap (End of Season)

— Mark Vientos: K'ed less but dropped power too.
— Sean Murphy & Dylan Crews: strikeouts skyrocketed.
— Jonah Bride: demoted (4/15) and moved to MIN.
— Max Kepler: unlucky (.332 xwOBA).

Any of these guys bouncing back in 2026? 👇

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

NL East Team Recap (End of Season)

The Phillies delivered (+7 W) and took the division. The Mets got in despite 5 Ws below projections.

The Braves went from 70% proj. playoff to 0% while the Marlins were 11 Ws above and still missed!

Biggest shock, ATL collapse or MIA rise?⬇️

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

NL Central X Factor Pitcher Recap (End of Season)

— Jameson Taillon: okay metrics, but played up.
— Aaron Ashby: nasty out the pen.
— Brady Singer: solid 2nd half (3.62 ERA).
— Andre Pallante: rough ride all season.
— David Bednar: back to dominating.

Ashby or Bednar in 2026?

[Hester’s Heaters @HestersHeaters]

NL Central X Factor Hitter Recap (End of Season)

— PCA: breakout year.
— Jackson Chourio: maintained rookie output.
— CES: demoted to AAA (7/12) after bat disappeared.
— Nolan Arenado: power + contact dipped again.
— Gonzales: struggled to get on base.

Biggest surprise? 👇