Hex Studios

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Fastest growing major economy at $4 trillion is a different game than fastest growing at $10 trillion. China held that title too, until the base got large enough that 5% growth meant adding an entire India-sized economy every three years.

The real question isn't whether India leads the G20 growth table in 2031. It's whether the growth is showing up in median wages or just in the GDP denominator.

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@sagarcasm The fact that Delhi can lose every argument in this thread and still bring up momos as a trump card is peak Delhi.

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5 for 5 gold without state-funded Olympiad factories is the more impressive stat buried in this. Countries like China and Russia run this like a national program. India's doing it through underfunded mentors at one institute. The real story is how much talent density exists here relative to the infrastructure supporting it, which is either very promising or slightly alarming depending on whether that infrastructure ever scales up.

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₹1 lakh a month plus 25 lakh saved from two hairstylists is a genuinely underrated data point on India's internal migration economy. Nobody tracks this kind of income mobility because it doesn't show up in formal sector statistics, but it's happening at scale in every service industry in every big city.

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Maharashtra wants to surpass Singapore and UAE economies in 2-3 years.

Singapore's GDP per capita: ~$88,000.
Maharashtra's GDP per capita: ~$4,300.

This isn't a target. It's a slogan.

The ambition to grow is real and worth celebrating. But presenting it as a 3-year milestone creates expectations that get used to measure failure rather than progress.

India's best states would grow faster if they set honest ambitious targets instead of headlines. The difference matters because one attracts serious investment and the other attracts skepticism.

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India is cutting because it has no choice. Energy shock, weak rupee, thin forex buffer. When your external account is stretched, austerity isn't ideology. it's necessity.

The US can leverage because it controls the reserve currency. It can print, borrow, and speculate because the world absorbs the cost.

India cutting while the US builds leverage isn't two different strategies. It's two different starting positions.

The investing implication is clear though. Own the asset of the country that can afford to speculate. That's been the dollar-denominated thesis all along.

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India is quietly becoming one of the most important economic stories on the planet.

Most people are still thinking about it like it's 2010.

I track where the money is actually going.

Follow if you want to be ahead of that shift.

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This is actually how it works and almost nobody explains it clearly.

The US borrows in dollars. It prints dollars. The debt inflates away in real terms while the rest of the world, which holds dollar reserves and imports dollar-priced commodities that absorbs the purchasing power loss.

India pays for American fiscal excess through a weaker rupee, higher oil bills, and imported inflation.

The dollar isn't just a currency. It's a tax on everyone who doesn't control it.

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ITC at 18x PE with a 5% dividend yield is one of those setups that looks obvious in hindsight.

The market is pricing in continued ESG pressure, cigarette volume decline, and the FMCG business taking longer than expected to scale.

What the market might be underpricing: the hotels business inflecting, agri exports growing, and a balance sheet with nearly zero debt.

Sometimes the best opportunities are in the companies where the narrative is settled and everyone has already left.

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@mainbhiengineer A country that built its middle class on IT salaries has no retraining policy, no severance law, no unemployment insurance worth speaking of. We celebrated the boom. We’re not prepared for the bust.

[Hex Studios @Hexstudiosin]

@ansujeet Very informative

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If the Strait of Hormuz sneezes, your petrol pump catches a cold.

Here’s what’s happening.

The U.S.–Israel–Iran escalation just turned from headlines to hard macro.

Nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
If that corridor is disrupted, oil doesn’t move from $80 to $85.

It jumps.

Analysts are already talking $120–$150 per barrel in a serious disruption scenario.

Now connect the dots.

Oil up →
Fuel up →
Logistics up →
FMCG up →
Airfares up →
Inflation up →
Rates stay higher →
Markets wobble.

Gold typically rallies in geopolitical shocks.
Silver moves even faster because it’s thinner and more volatile.

This isn’t “just war news.”

This is transmission lines of global trade being tested.

For India:

- We import ~85% of our crude
- Higher oil widens fiscal pressure
- Rupee sensitivity increases
- Equity markets price in inflation risk

The real question isn’t “Will gold hit a new high?”

It’s:

Does the Strait stay open?

Because if it does, this is a spike.
If it doesn’t, this becomes a cycle.

This is macro in real time.

What’s your base case, escalation or containment?

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Starting March 1st with goals, motivation… and a possible World War 3.

This is what adulthood looks like in 2026.

You’re setting fitness targets.
Updating your SIP amount.
Planning career moves.

Meanwhile:

Oil markets are pricing war risk.
Gold is flirting with new highs.
The Strait of Hormuz is one headline away from chaos.

And yet…

Your life still has to move forward.

That’s the strange thing about history.

Geopolitics doesn’t pause your EMIs.
Wars don’t wait for your promotion cycle.
Markets don’t care about your comfort zone.

So you have two choices:
1.Freeze because the world looks unstable.
https://t.co/fHUfsUIfHE anyway.

March is a reminder.

Planes burn the most fuel during takeoff.
Nations do too.
So do individuals.

The first phase is noisy. Expensive. Uncertain.

But once you’re at altitude, it’s smoother.

Maybe this month isn’t about predicting the world.

Maybe it’s about positioning yourself so no matter what happens, inflation, volatility, shocks, you’re not fragile.

New month.
Higher awareness.
Stronger systems.

History will do what it does.

You focus on compounding.

What’s your March target?

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@anandmahindra Sir, this is such a powerful metaphor.

Most People want Amrit without the churn.

But real leadership is Shiv-like restraint, absorbing volatility so the ecosystem doesn’t fracture.

In every cycle of change, the first thing that surfaces is noise, fear, and resistance. The few who can hold the “vish” without amplifying it are the ones who earn the right to distribute the “amrit.”

On #MahaShivratri, perhaps the real question for people is:

Are we reacting to turbulence…
or are we strong enough to contain it?

Grateful for the reminder. 🙏

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In 2020, JPMorgan paid $920 million to settle U.S. charges for manipulating precious metals futures.

Traders were accused of “spoofing”, placing fake buy/sell orders in gold and silver to move prices… then canceling them.

That wasn’t a conspiracy theory.
It was a federal case.

Now zoom out.

Global gold is near record highs.
Silver volatility keeps spiking.
Retail investors are told, “It’s just supply and demand.”

But here’s the uncomfortable truth:

When billion-dollar banks get caught distorting metals markets, they pay fines.
When retail investors react emotionally to volatility, they lose capital.

The system doesn’t break.
It recalibrates.

And this is why smart money watches:

- Derivatives positioning
- COMEX open interest
- Central bank buying
- Physical vs paper divergence

Not just headlines.

Markets aren’t “rigged” in a cartoon villain way.

They’re structured.

Structured in a way where those with size, speed, and liquidity shape short-term price… and everyone else reacts.

Gold and silver aren’t just commodities.
They’re stress meters for the financial system.

When volatility explodes, ask:

Is this a supply shock?
Liquidity stress?
Or positioning unwind?

Because history already showed us one thing:

The biggest players don’t get punished for moving markets.

They get fined.

And then they keep trading.

That’s the part most people forget.

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₹10,000 crore into Biopharma + frontier tech in Budget 2026 isn’t spending. It’s positioning.

India doesn’t want to be cheap labor anymore.
It wants to own IP, exports, and leverage in health + science.

Biotech + AI + pharma infra is where the next quiet giants form.

Early money moves before the headlines catch up.

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This line from Budget 2026 matters more than it looks:

India is setting up dedicated rare-earth corridors across
Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu.

This isn’t a mining announcement.
It’s a geopolitical move.

Rare earths power:
• EVs
• semiconductors
• defence systems
• AI hardware
• clean energy

Right now, China dominates this supply chain.

India isn’t trying to mine faster.
It’s trying to own the corridor from ground to factory.

If executed right, these states don’t just export minerals.
They become choke points in the global tech economy.

This is how countries move from labor arbitrage
to **strategic leverage**.

Quiet line in the budget.
Loud consequences over the next decade.

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Everyone’s celebrating that India will become the 3rd largest economy.

But that’s not the real milestone.

Per capita income is.

India’s GDP per person is still around $2,800.
That puts us near 120th globally.

Big economy ≠ rich citizens.

China crossed this phase when income growth accelerated.
South Korea did it by productivity.
India hasn’t yet.

Why this matters more than rankings:

• Consumption doesn’t boom on headline GDP
• Earnings don’t compound without income growth
• Markets don’t rerate without productivity gains

You can be a giant economy and still feel poor.
Scale hides inequality. Income exposes it.

India becoming #3 is inevitable.
India getting richer per person is the real fight.

That’s the decade-defining question.

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This might be one of the quietest power shifts of the decade.

At Davos, Ursula von der Leyen said the India–EU trade deal is almost done. Some are calling it the “mother of all deals.”

That’s not hype. Look at the incentives:

• Europe needs growth without China risk
• India needs market access without US unpredictability
• Both want supply chains that don’t snap every election cycle

If finalized, this links two massive economies into a 2-billion-people market across goods, services, investment, and regulation.

The subtext matters more than the headline.

This isn’t just trade.
It’s Europe hedging geopolitics.
It’s India locking in long-term leverage.
It’s a signal that the global order is quietly rerouting around instability.

Most people will read this as another “historic” headline.
Markets will read it as where capital and manufacturing tilt next.

Big shifts don’t announce themselves loudly.
They show up first in agreements like this.

image @BBC

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I study how power, money, and technology actually move the world.

Stats. Markets. Politics. Sports.

Follow if you want signal, not noise.