Paul the Borrower

NYC based GEM L/S — Opinions are my own and not the views of my employer — Occasionally delete all Tweets

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@TheBenSchmark I am long ACMR, but K3 was almost certainly trained on H200s?

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@TheStalwart It’s not worth much more than Minimax that trades at 10% of its market cap. And Minimax itself is 100x overvalued. No Chinese open source model will ever generate profit

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@WaterworldCapi1 Bullish as hell. This 82% is desperately underweight and underwater, and their entire thesis is the trade is too crowded

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@PythiaR Sell copious amounts of 000660 puts at 135 ivol?

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@CapitalValor No skin in the game, have owned it in past though

Would own for cyclical recovery as channel de-stock will end soon. But not sure you can buy and hold

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@CapitalValor Brand equity is torched

Value prop is also non-existent, has led to much more proliferation. I would say Away is vastly superior product at small premium, BEIS is better at comparable price… both have better brand equity than Samsonite. Many smaller brands have emerged

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@PythiaR A shambolic letter. But I was surprised to see he’s done 13.1% pa net since inception, it’s not nearly as bad as I would have guessed given his portfolio

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@MikeFritzell The idea that lawyers are not using an abundance of tokens is the most insane claim I have read so far this year

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@SemiAnalysis_ Location: Nevada

Not often Stan Druckenmiller buys into a $500m microcap

$GMET

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@WaterworldCapi1 @evrgn11112231 @rubicon59 They’ll switch from multi pattern DUV to EUV with 1-gamma i.e. 4E… just because they did not use for 3E/4 does not mean they don’t need EUV eventually

But yeah they are far behind both Koreans on R&D, don’t even possess a high-NA machine yet

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@leihpares @HiCagr I think Montage is more geared to CXL than any of the names you mention. The memory-interface chip vendors have incumbency in every server DIMM, CXL controllers (MXC) are a natural extension for Montage

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@EquityBrian Because that is where the associated cost that is driving the acceleration in cloud sits

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@OnodaCapital The analyst churn there is brutal

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@zephyr_z9 GPTC should be very geared to SoIC capex. Their capacity debottlenecks next quarter and by end of 2027 SoIC can be > half the volume with 50-75% higher ASP

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@demian_ai Very cool work! Thanks for sharing

The one day price moves seem to just be random numbers for some reason

90% of the hardware supply chain sits in Taiwan/Korea/to a lesser extent China, every stock on the watchlist has a US listing. That’s by design?

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@jukan05 Why not Lotes? Geared to CPU via LGA sockets. And plenty of optionality to be second source when SOCAMM (finally) adopted, and second source for LGA NPO sockets + ELS connectors (most obvious second source to FIT?)

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@SilverDegen @toiletkingcap 1. Bingham Canyon does 130kt not 300kt
2. It is <1% of global copper production

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@utopia_escape @capytalmgmt Is Bluechem’s gas offtake price linked to Asian LNG? Nope

Margins are much more geared to absolute methanol px and than methanol-LNG spreads

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@utopia_escape @capytalmgmt More importantly, 80% of China’s methanol imports are from the Middle East… and guess what country represent 75-80% of those imports?

[Paul the Borrower @HighBorrowCost]

@utopia_escape @capytalmgmt Absolute nonsense, and for China Bluchem it is not relevant. Bluechem gets its feedstock from parent CNOOC whose gas production is 70% from domestic fields, mainly (but not entirely) in the South China Sea. The 30% imports does have a bit of Middle East but it is immaterial