Hilo

Observador del mercado 🇦🇷

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@bold_perception Bought some plants from a vivero and the store won’t let me leave with their ghetto home made cart (which I won’t ever want to get caught dead next to) without my passport even after offering to leave my foreign credit cards them.

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@BuySellBA This price must be some sort of promotional pricing. Even with uber one discount it is over 4,000 pesos 3usd) for a 2 km ride.

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@CarlosMaslaton Ese precio no es real.

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@itsjacksworld The expensas are “only” 350 US Dollar a month but with a building of this age that seems unusually low. Realistically given the age and need for capital maintenance one should expect to start paying over 1k US Dollar per month soon

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

What makes Argentine shopping misleading is that they advertise the per unit cost of promotional pricing (for example when you buy X number of units) and the cost of the single unit is made less obvious.

The daily discounts based on banking relationships is also misleading. There are folks complaining all over social media about how the discount or promotion doesnt really exist due to the non accumulation of promotions.

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@BowTiedMara Tambien depende de la categoría de tarifa.
Hay que ver la factura completa para poder comparar.

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@BuySellBA This works out to (all-in) 15 cents US per kwh. This isnt all that high considering the average rates in the U.S.

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@Guayapetv @grok are these in dólares or pesos mexicanos

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@BowTiedMara Another thing that doesn’t make sense is the KFC is packaged as a delivery with the top sealed and receipts stuck on the side. Something doesn’t quite add up

Yes if the cleaners did have access shouldn’t they just use the key to open it?

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@gonzalogorno Subió el precio.

[Traductor 🥹💕💐 @TraductorTeAma]

🚨⚠️LA MATANZA| Un kirchnerista del sindicato de camioneros meo en un camión que transportaba pollos para consumo humano sin refrigeración.

Kirchnerismo Nunca Más.

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

@BowTiedMara Now it applies to everyone

[Juan Pablo Marino @jpmarino79]

🚨🚨🚨 El BCRA reactiva una medida del cepo al dólar para personas humanas: quien compre en el oficial no podrá operar MEP y CCL por 90 días

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Trump will meet Argentina's Javier Milei on Tuesday in the US, Milei’s spokesman said, as his government faces a market selloff after a local election defeat

[Pablo Quirno @pabloquirno]

Ya empezaron las especulaciones periodísticas, cómo si tuvieran datos…

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

The pesos used to buy dollars come more from fixed-term deposits than from the cash people have in their wallets to go to the supermarket.

In private fixed-term deposits there are 50 trillion pesos, at $1,515 this equals about US$33 billion. 80% of those fixed-term deposits mature before the elections.

The central bank has only $20bn of liquidity. Of which they spent $1 billion dollars in just two days to defend the peso. CCL has already breached the upper ceiling.

What's next? With little inbound foreign direct investment (0.5% of proposed RIGI projects actually got invested) and $33bn of fixed term deposits ready to exit, the foreign exchange USDARS chart could get catastrophic.

@BowTiedMara @BuySellBA

[Christian Buteler @cbuteler]

Los pesos para comprar dólares salen más de los depósitos a plazo fijo que del dinero que hay en la billetera para ir al supermercado.
En plazos fijos privados hay $50 billones a $1.515 equivale a u$s 33.000 millones, el 80% de esos plazos fijos vencen antes de las elecciones.-

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

Argentina is again facing a rush into dollars as confidence in the peso erodes. The parallels with past emerging-market crises are clear: leveraged carry trades are being unwound, margin calls are forcing liquidations, and capital flight is accelerating the peso’s decline. The psychology is familiar, once trust is broken, Argentines buy dollars at any price.

President Milei’s public claim that he is “negotiating” with the U.S. for support underscores the desperation. In real financial rescues, agreements are announced only once finalized. When the G7 central banks activated their swap lines in 2008 and 2020, there were no rumors or “advanced talks” just decisive announcements. Floating negotiations without cash in hand risks deepening market panic.

Argentina’s track record with Washington also feeds skepticism. In the past year, we’ve seen a series of announcements that turned out to be more hype than substance. First came reports of a trade agreement with the U.S. in “advanced stages,” which never materialized. Then, hopes were raised around a U.S. visa waiver program, only for it to collapse when Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly never authorized it, leading to the cancellation of meetings with Argentine ministers en route to Washington. Against that backdrop, today’s rumors of a U.S. debt rescue sound familiar. I remain skeptical until dollars actually arrive at the central bank.

Could the U.S. Treasury step in? History suggests it is unlikely. The last major bilateral rescue was Mexico’s “Tequila Crisis” in 1995, when contagion threatened the U.S. banking system. Today, Argentina is far more isolated: foreign exposure is limited, its bonds are already distressed, and the systemic risk to the U.S. or global economy is very low. Any crisis will remain largely contained within Argentina.

If support comes at all, it will most likely flow through the IMF, where the burden is shared multilaterally. A direct U.S. bailout would be politically costly and strategically unnecessary.

@BowTiedMara @BuySellBA

[Hilo @HiloFinanzas]

A new mortgage investment fund has been approved by the Argentine authorities. It anticipates $100 million US dollars in funds.

This means more availability of credit and more alternatives to banks.

https://t.co/fSq578lmNs