Hitomi Tanaka

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

Private equity

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

“I will buy this stock once it’s down 30%”
[stock goes down 30%]
“Something is going on that I don’t understand, pass”

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

AI disruption risk for info services (from claude)

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

Interesting angle. To my best knowledge airwallex is one of the key competitors of wise

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

A lot of people here pitching qxo but I have not seen anyone sharing their estimate of normalized earnings

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

Thinking that 20 years ago people did not know a low multiple stock was mostly a shitty biz is naive. We had real estate and lending boom in 2000s, that’s why value investing worked (both banks and real estate are bad businesses that trade at low multiples)

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

Today, if you’re a value investor and you somehow loaded with stuff like MU two years ago, you can claim value investing works again.

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

I think one of the more interesting use cases of ai in investment research is it becomes easier to understand r&d pipelines of r&d driven/tech companies

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

The hard part has always been to understand which part of r&d is maintenance vs growth

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

And also efficiency of those growth investments

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

this thing is valued like its the next Danaher or CSU. but i have questions...

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

The target audience of all this AI hysteria is investors, not general folks. It's supposed to make investors super bullish Anthro and to keep financing the loss making entity.
Ofc this message also gets taken to broader public by media, Dario has not thought deeply about that

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

This applies to Sam too

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

While i generally don't do podcasts, decided to make an exception for Dmitry who has been a friend for many years. We talk about management quality, cyclical businesses and investing during wartime

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

Being dumb VC who accidentally got early into Anthropic vs being top percentile value investor 🧐

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

In other words: being mediocre performer in structurally attractive industry is often better than being a top performer in structurally challenged industry

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

It’s amazing how quickly fortunes can reverse in adtech.

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

It took a couple of months to get from tech singularity to currency debasement and societal collapse

[Hitomi Tanaka @HitomiT52830720]

This seems like a massive regime change for financial assets ?