Hivann

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️Friday is the largest monetization of belief in financial history.

Executed by the most informed seller of belief alive, at the exact moment of its maximum purchasing power.

That’s the whole event. Everything else is mechanics.

Start with the tell nobody is reading: the dictated price.

No range, no bookbuilding, no price discovery on the biggest IPO ever attempted.

$135, take it or leave it.

Price discovery exists to find what an asset is worth; Musk skipped it because worth was never the variable being measured.

The fixed price is a loyalty test denominated in equity, and four times oversubscription is the test coming back positive. The market didn’t price SpaceX this week. It pledged allegiance to it, and the S-1 just gave the pledge a CUSIP.

The Morningstar gap is the event’s true headline: $780B of fundamentals inside a $1.8T wrapper. That trillion-dollar spread is the Musk premium, visible and tradable at scale for the first time. Tesla proved belief is a financeable asset class. SPCX is that discovery industrialized: rockets, Starlink, and xAI fused into a single ticker whose buyers are purchasing the future itself, Mars, orbital internet, machine intelligence, as one instrument.

People paying $135 are not buying discounted cash flows. They’re funding a mission and acquiring membership. Patronage with a ticker symbol. That’s neither fraud nor delusion. It’s a new instrument the textbooks don’t have a chapter for yet, and Musk is the only person who has ever issued it at sovereign scale.

The 30% retail allocation is the sharpest strategic move inside the deal and the least understood.

Framed as democratization, it’s moat construction: millions of retail holders convert a defense contractor into a political constituency.

Every future subsidy fight, regulatory challenge, and contract dispute now happens against a company partially owned by the voting public.

Tesla’s retail base made it unkillable through years of negative fundamentals. SpaceX just bought the same armor, deliberately, at IPO, before ever needing it.

A strategic national asset acquiring a citizen shareholder army is genuinely new in American capitalism, and it’s slightly chilling in exactly the way most brilliant structural moves are.

Then the timing, which is the information content. The best capital allocator of his generation chose this week, melt-up regime, retail euphoria at cycle highs, money market cash still flooding dips, to raise the largest sum in market history at 2.3x the independent fundamental read.

Sellers of that caliber maximize size precisely when the gap between price and value is widest.

[Sakeliga @Sakeliga]

🔴BREAKING: International airlines freed from racial licensing in South Africa

This follows Sakeliga's victory in the Pretoria High Court on Friday.

Here's the latest 🧵

[StephanZA @GamingGrifter]

Because this is my home. My ancestors shed their own blood to make this the greatest country on the African continent.

I'm not willing to give that up without a fight. Those who take up refugee status, I absolutely want that for you and I pray that you will find the greatest life in the greatest country on earth, the United States of America.

But I will be here until this country is freed from the wicked and evil grasp of communist terrorists because it's where my ancestors died, it's where my forefathers made a promise to God and He delivered them from the might of the Zulu warrior and gave them victory. It's where my tiny nation looked the most powerful Empire right in the eyes and says "If you want it, come take it from us" and they damn near won.

God is not done with my people and He is most certainly not done with this country. I stay because if we were to all leave, those Christians who can't leave would be left having to fend for themselves against a vile and wicked communist regime that will, like every other nation, kill every last believer to establish its own wicked rule.

If you feel in your heart you must leave, you have my full blessing and prayer of prosperity. If you stay I salute you.

We will save this country because when God is for us, who can stand against us.

[Hivann @HivannW]

The quality of your thinking places an upper limit on the quality of your outcomes

[Hivann @HivannW]

@DCinvestor I think its because there's too much dodgyness in crypto, government interference and control, blackrock etc. People don't believe anymore, its become tainted. Or its just JP Morgan and silver all over again

[Brian Halligan @bhalligan]

I don't remember where I found this, but its spot on.

[Handre @Handre]

The South African government published draft regulations that would criminalize self-custody of Bitcoin. Border agents could demand your private keys. Treasury could force you to sell your Bitcoin back to rand. All holdings must be declared within 30 days. This happened by ministerial decree without a parliamentary vote.

Murray Rothbard described the state as nothing more than a gang of thieves writ large, legitimized through the mythology of democratic consent. South Africa's National Treasury demonstrates this perfectly. They are using a 93-year-old law from 1933 to regulate technology that didn't exist until 2009, overriding court rulings that said crypto assets fall outside exchange controls. The rand has lost 90% of its value in thirty years, and now they want to trap you inside their sinking currency.

They are doing this because of what economists call the Impossible Trinity. Any government can only maintain two of three things: stable exchange rates, free capital movement, or independent monetary policy. South Africa chose capital controls plus monetary independence, sacrificing your freedom to move money. Bitcoin breaks that equation. When you can custody your own wealth outside their system, their capital controls become meaningless.

Eleven million South Africans remain unbanked. For them, self-custodied Bitcoin is their bank. The same government claiming to care about financial inclusion just moved to criminalize the only viable savings technology these people can access. Bastiat would recognize the paradox: what is seen is "investor protection," what is unseen is the destruction of the only escape route from monetary theft.

The comment window closes May 16th. They are betting you won't notice until it's too late.

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Elon Musk avait dit un truc qui m'avait marqué sur l'allocation de ressources. En substance : passé un certain niveau de richesse, l'argent n'est plus de la consommation, c'est de l'allocation de capital.

Cette phrase change tout.

L'économie, dans le fond, c'est juste un problème d'allocation. Tu as des ressources finies et des usages infinis. Qui décide où va quoi ?

Imagine une cour de récré. 100 enfants, des paquets de cartes Pokémon distribués au hasard. Tu laisses faire. Très vite, un ordre émerge. Les bons joueurs accumulent les cartes rares, les collectionneurs trient, les négociateurs trouvent des deals. Personne n'a planifié. Et pourtant chaque carte finit dans les mains de celui qui en tire le plus de valeur. Le système maximise le bonheur total de la cour. C'est ça, la main invisible.

Maintenant fais entrer la maîtresse. Elle trouve ça injuste. Léo a 50 cartes, Tom en a 3. Elle confisque, redistribue, impose l'égalité. Trois effets immédiats. Les bons joueurs arrêtent de jouer, à quoi bon. Les mauvais n'ont plus de raison de progresser, ils auront leur part. Les échanges s'effondrent. La cour est égale, et morte. Elle a maximisé l'égalité, elle a détruit le bonheur.

Le problème de la maîtresse, c'est qu'elle ne peut pas avoir l'information que la cour avait collectivement. C'est le problème du calcul économique de Mises, formulé en 1920. L'URSS a essayé de le résoudre pendant 70 ans avec le Gosplan. Résultat : pénuries, queues, effondrement. Pas parce que les Soviétiques étaient bêtes, parce que le problème est mathématiquement insoluble en mode centralisé.

Quand Musk a 200 milliards, il ne les consomme pas, il les alloue. SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, xAI. Chaque dollar est un pari sur le futur. Et lui a un track record. PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX. Il a démontré qu'il sait identifier des problèmes immenses et y allouer des ressources avec un rendement spectaculaire.

L'État aussi a un track record. Hôpitaux qui s'effondrent, éducation qui décline, dette qui explose, services publics qui se dégradent malgré des budgets en hausse constante. Le marché identifie les bons allocateurs, la politique identifie les bons communicants.

Le profit n'est pas une finalité, c'est un signal. Il dit : tu as alloué des ressources rares vers un usage que les gens valorisent suffisamment pour payer. Plus le profit est gros, plus la création de valeur est grande. Quand Starlink est rentable, ça veut dire que des millions de gens dans des zones rurales ont enfin internet. Quand un ministère est en déficit, ça veut dire qu'il consomme plus qu'il ne produit. L'un crée, l'autre détruit, et on appelle ça redistribution.

Dans nos sociétés il y a deux catégories d'acteurs. Les entrepreneurs et les bureaucrates. L'entrepreneur prend un risque personnel pour identifier un problème, mobiliser des ressources, créer une solution. S'il se trompe il perd. S'il a raison, ses clients gagnent, ses employés gagnent, ses fournisseurs gagnent, l'État collecte des impôts. Il est la cellule de base du progrès humain.

Le bureaucrate ne prend aucun risque personnel. Son salaire est garanti. Au mieux il maintient une rente existante. Au pire il la détruit par excès de réglementation, mauvaise allocation forcée, incitations perverses qui découragent ceux qui produisent. Mais dans aucun cas il ne crée.

Regarde les 50 dernières années. iPhone, internet civil, SpaceX, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Stripe, mRNA, ChatGPT. Toutes des inventions privées, portées par des entrepreneurs, financées par du capital risque. Pas un seul ministère n'a inventé quoi que ce soit qui ait changé ta vie au quotidien.

La France est devenue le laboratoire mondial de la dérive bureaucratique. 57% du PIB en dépenses publiques, record absolu. Une administration tentaculaire, une fiscalité qui pénalise la création de richesse. Résultat : décrochage face aux États-Unis, à l'Allemagne, à la Suisse. Fuite des cerveaux. Désindustrialisation. Dette qui explose.

Et le pire c'est que la mauvaise allocation s'auto-renforce. Plus l'État prélève, moins les entrepreneurs créent. Moins ils créent, moins il y a de base fiscale. Plus l'État s'endette et taxe. Boucle de rétroaction négative parfaite. La maîtresse pense qu'elle aide, et chaque année la cour produit moins.

Dans nos sociétés, ce sont les entrepreneurs, toujours, qui font avancer la civilisation. Les bureaucrates au mieux maintiennent une rente, au pire la détruisent. Aucune société n'a jamais progressé en taxant ses créateurs pour subventionner ses gestionnaires.

La question n'est jamais qui a combien. C'est qui alloue le mieux la prochaine unité de ressource pour maximiser le futur de l'humanité. La réponse depuis 200 ans n'a jamais changé. Ce ne sont pas les fonctionnaires.

[Hivann @HivannW]

@IncomeSharks It is easy to know when to buy when you have a finger on the pulse of 100s of people's market sentiment live through market cycles

[StephanZA @GamingGrifter]

Not saying this will happen or even advocating for it but can the "freedom" fighters and anti-white racists of South Africa quickly explain something to me.

If the US decided, as they did with Venezuela and Iran that the communists of South Africa can no longer be engaged with diplomatically.

What exactly will you do? China and Russia has proven they will not come to your aid. South Africa has no military. It would seem that from a basic rational position you should be a lot more humble. Yet you act as if you're untouchable. International law is dead, yet you seem to bank on it saving you.

[Darshak Rana ⚡️ @thedarshakrana]

Julian Rotter ran a study in 1960s that accidentally explained why most people never build a life they actually chose.

He called it locus of control.

People with an external locus believe their outcomes are governed by forces outside themselves: luck, authority, circumstance, other people’s decisions. People with an internal locus believe their actions are the primary driver of what happens to them.

Decades of follow-up research produced a finding so consistent it borders on uncomfortable. Internal locus of control is one of the strongest predictors of income, health, relationship satisfaction, and psychological wellbeing ever measured across cultures.

The school system, almost by design, trains external locus into children from the earliest age. You don’t choose what to learn. You don’t choose when to learn it. You don’t choose how to demonstrate understanding.

Someone else sets the standards, grades your performance, and tells you whether you were adequate. Do this for sixteen years straight and you don’t just learn math and literature. You learn, at a neurological level, that external authorities define what counts as success and whether you’ve achieved it.

Psychologists call the long term result of this “learned helplessness,” a term Martin Seligman developed after watching dogs stop trying to escape electric shocks even when escape became possible. The shocks had been uncontrollable for long enough that the animals stopped registering their own agency as a real variable. The cage door opened and they stayed inside because their nervous system had stopped believing that moving would change anything.

The overlap between Seligman’s dogs and adults who cannot imagine building income outside a employer’s permission structure is not metaphorical. It is mechanistic. The brain that was never allowed to direct its own learning, never allowed to fail on its own terms and recover, never rewarded for autonomous decision making, genuinely loses resolution on its own capacity for self direction. The capability atrophies the way a muscle does when it goes unused.

Reclaiming internal locus of control as an adult is rehabilitation work. And the research shows it compounds exactly the way the damage did, slowly, then faster than you expected.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Bill Clinton: “I was much closer friends with Ghislaine Maxwell then I was Jeffrey Epstein - because she was friends with the Rothschilds and I was close to them”

[NeoSpirituality @neospirituality]

Abundance is easy. It is literally YOUR TRUE NATURE as Son of God. The entire Law of Wealth boils down to a single choice of direction you make: INWARD or OUTWARD.

1. THE FLOWING RIVER (OUTWARD)

When you live to give, you become a River. You are no longer a container, and are now a channel. Because you do not hold onto the energy, you can handle infinite amounts of high voltage energy.

The Universe rushes to fill you because it knows the energy will not get stuck. You become a trusted broker of divine energy/money.

God is constantly FIGHTING TO GIVE YOU MORE - more money, more love, more health - because He knows it will reach His other children through you.

⚠️ HOWEVER, before you become a River, you must overcome a trap that has trapped many light souls: THE DEAD RIVER or Self-Sacrificial Martyr.

Many spiritual people believe they must drain themselves to serve others. "Please take all my time, all my energy for free."

STOP! This is a violation of God's Law. If the Riverbed dries up, the water stops flowing. If you destroy the vessel (your body, your sanity, your finances) in the name of "service," you insult God who gave you the vessel.

The Proper Way: True service comes from OVERFLOW, not depletion. You must fill your own cup until it spills over.

The "spill" is for the world; the cup is for you. You cannot serve the Light if you are dead or broke. By rejecting all the baby souls who demand that you to spend time and energy on them while giving nothing, you also teach them it is NOT RIGHT to exploit others.

2. THE STAGNANT POND (INWARD)

When you live only for yourself, you become a Pond. You might collect vast wealth, knowledge, and even a kingdom, but there is no outlet for release. You become a spiritual cul-de-sac.

The Problem: Even if the pond is massive (look at the elite families), the water eventually turns TOXIC. Algae blooms, oxygen dies, and life suffocates. This is the energetic state of the miser and the narcissist.

Worst still, rather than fight to GIVE to you, God is always trying to TAKE from the hoarder, not out of punishment but out of Physics.

Energy MUST move. If you build a dam and refuse to let the water flow, the pressure builds until the Universe forcibly breaks your dam.

The final result is "sudden misfortune" - theft, expensive illness, huge crashes. It is God smashing the container so the trapped energy can finally return to circulation.

TLDR

Abundance is not to have the biggest tank - it is to be THE WIDEST pipe.

If you want water, don't pray for it. That is low level.

Instead, pray for the capacity to SERVE and GIVE as much as you can to others (while remembering the Martyr trap).

[David @david_eng_mba]

The One Number That Explains Bitcoin’s Price

The number is −0.65.

That’s Bitcoin’s Z-score.

If you’re not a statistician, here’s all that means:
a Z-score tells you how far price is stretched from what’s normal.

• Z = 0 → price is normal
• Z > 0 → price is stretched high
• Z < 0 → price is stretched low

It doesn’t predict hype.
It measures tension.

Here’s why −0.65 matters.

At this point after every prior halving, Bitcoin was above trend:
2012: +1.02
2016: +1.32
2020: +0.48

Today: −0.65
That has never happened before.

Not once in 15 years.

What the numbers say next

I ran the full dataset: 5,681 daily observations.

Every crash. Every bubble. Every macro regime.

The relationship between Z-score and future price is not weak.

Correlation to forward 18-month returns: −0.745
Variance explained by this single variable: ~56%

That means how far price is stretched explains more of what happens next than rates, CPI, narratives, or sentiment.

From Z ≤ −0.6 (where we are now):
• 12-month win rate: 100%
• Negative outcomes: 0
• Worst case: +47%
• Median outcome: +181%

From Z ≥ +1.0:

• Win rate: 44%
• Worst drawdown: −73%

That’s not opinion.
That’s asymmetry.

So why doesn’t price “feel” bullish?
Because Bitcoin is no longer being priced like a trade.

It’s being used.

Bitcoin now trades 24/7, settles instantly, and can be pledged as collateral. Capital can move through it without anyone smashing the buy button on an exchange.

That suppresses price temporarily.

It does not weaken demand.

The market calls that “no interest.”
The math calls it misclassification.

Meanwhile, supply math tightened permanently.

Issuance was cut in half in 2024.
ETFs absorb hundreds of BTC per day off-exchange.
Institutions accumulate quietly.

Selling exists but it’s being transferred from short-term holders to long-term balance sheets at roughly a 36% discount to network value.

That’s not distribution.
That’s inventory changing hands.

Mean reversion doesn’t need a catalyst.
Deviation half-life: ~133 days.

That means:
• ~50% of the gap closes in ~4 months
• ~75% in ~8 months
• ~90% in ~12 months

No optimism required.
No narrative required.

Time does the work.
This isn’t a trade.

It’s a position.

The bet isn’t that “Bitcoin moons.”
The bet is that math didn’t stop working this cycle.

Because when highly stretched systems snap back, they don’t negotiate.

They just move.

Macro does not determine Bitcoin’s long-term price.

Distance from equilibrium does.

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

Hey @Grok, tell me how low the price of Bitcoin can go before there is any concerns about the solvency or balance sheet health of Strategy.

Give me the lowest possible price Bitcoin can trade at before there is a concern.

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

https://t.co/AiGjkp3513

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Ben Affleck talking about LLMs honestly blew my mind.

He argues that the industry hypes up fear to distract from the fact that adoption is slow and the technology is getting expensive to scale.

Make sure to save this video

[yo gappy gappy! @yogappygappy]

Second life

[Alexandra Semenova @alexandraandnyc]

wealth managers putting your money in an index fund

[Hivann @HivannW]

If you love your family, friends, and culture — especially when that culture was shaped in this land over centuries — there can be a reason to stay and fight.
Some people don’t fight; they survive. But it’s often far easier to protect those three things where you were born.
I have family who moved abroad. Their children stopped speaking their language and drifted from traditions their family once valued — not because they couldn’t keep them, but because there weren’t enough people around them who lived those values.