Analyst Next Door - NFL

Data&Analytics Lead by day, NFL nerd by night.
Simple charts, weird stats, bad jokes, honest, model-backed picks.
Public track record.
Mondays: how wrong was I?

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

Hi, I’m the Analyst Next Door 👋

I work with data for a living, NFL is my hobby, and this account is where the two meet.

I built the model for fun. Then it got a little out of hand. 😂

The charts are simple.
The model behind them definitely isn’t.

Most predictions come from a 700+ variable model with dynamic feature selection, built to dig through way more information than I could ever reasonably put on a chart.

What to expect:

📊 Big Analysis — games, players & teams, broken down with real play-by-play data.

🎰 Lottery — bold player claims backed by the model, with the receipts to follow.

🏈 Fantasy Takes — waiver targets, trade ideas and players I’m keeping an eye on.

🧠 Model Insights & Weird Stats — the stuff that makes me go “wait, really?”

Big analysis every Saturday.

🐈 And every Monday, the cat checks how wrong I was.

No jargon walls. No hot takes without numbers.

The analysis is complicated. I’ll try to make it simple.

Welcome to the neighborhood. 🫡

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@TalkinGiants @JordanRaanan Skattebo trying to cheer him up:

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@PlayBracco the Texans is not good, but defo not 0-4 bad

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@PolymarketBlitz Wicks is my available player

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@NFL I had a question last week about whether this offense can be worse. Well...

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@SleeperNFL Sutton won’t get hurt at least

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@NFL_DovKleiman I’m not a professional, but it’s might be AI

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@NFL my fantasy team:

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

🤯 One stat that looks fake but isn't:

The 49ers have played four games and Brock Purdy has been sacked zero times.

Not "barely any". Zero. 0.0 sacks allowed in Weeks 1-4.

The last team to open a season with four straight sack-free games was the 2005 Colts. That's 21 years ago.

And game 4 wasn't against some sleepy pass rush. It was Denver, the team that has led the NFL in sacks since the start of 2024. Niners won 24-14, Purdy went 19/30 for 218 yards and 2 TDs, and his jersey stayed clean.

My cat backtested this and asked me to rerun the query. I did. Still zero. 😂

Now the honest part. Four games is a tiny sample, and sacks are noisy. A quick passing game can hide a lot, and one ugly Sunday ends the streak. Next up is Seattle on the road.

I don't think this lasts all season. But four clean games, including Denver, isn't luck.

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@JackPlusEV @NFLonCBS you give me the same vibe as a stay at home MLM mom promising financial freedom if you just buy into her system😂
get a job, kid

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@GoatedLee @SleeperHQ feel you

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@JackPlusEV @NFLonCBS calling machine learning “not math,” but the paid betting scheme is math, lol. 😂 have fun mr knowitall

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@nflrums Cowboys defense

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@jasrifootball Jerry Jones next week:

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@barstoolsports replacing injured players in my 8 leauges is a full time job now

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@SleeperNFL just Lamb

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@JackPlusEV @NFLonCBS the gambling addict’s tips are always a better reference, right? 😂🤡

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@td_nash this season, as of now hard to argue against Walker

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@YahooFantasy @JFowlerESPN replacing injured players in all 8 of my fantasy leagues seems like a full-time job now

[Analyst Next Door - NFL @HobbyAnalystNFL]

@NFL @dallascowboys @TBvsDAL @NFLPlus at this point I have to move to a closer timezone to able watch more matches live