Hold2secs @Hold2secs - Twitter Profile

Funny revisiting old tweets nowadays. BTC bottomed between the hypothetical entry and "stop loss" in this tweet from June 2022, only 6 months into the bear market. From a cyclical perspective you would have been content with a ~20k avg entry en route to 120k, but you had to deal with the stress of uncertainty and an underwater position for some time. I probably sounded like a moron with this r/r headass tweet to my 37 followers at the time but similar vibes at the moment. 60k avg entry prob won't be the pico bottom but in hindsight will most likely be super well received. Maybe you have to deal with the stress of uncertainty, time based capitulation and even being underwater for a while. My ideal bear market spot accumulation strategies are as follows: 1) Buy capitulations/fud over the course of a year- split buys into 3 parts. In 2022 term this would have looked like buying 3AC, buying FTX then buying USDC depeg in 2023. This would have gotten you a sub 20k avg entry. 2) Wait for 4-6 months of sideways ranging. Do your best to scale- ideally below range mid. In 2022 terms this would be buying the range after 3AC pre-FTX then buying some in the post-FTX range. 3) Wait for weekly trend to be flipped and buy higher into a bullish retest afterwards. In 2022 terms this would equate to buying 25k in summer 2023. So where are we today? We're already 9 months into a bear market and BTC has hung around the 60k support level for the past 5 months. The first capitulation was 97k to 60k in Feb. Fud has been hilariously, egregiously weak this cycle so far (war, quantum, saylor). We can attribute some of our drives down into 60k to these. I think the main driver of uncertainty for most people at the moment is that "BTC has not dropped enough yet". A 55% drawdown in a bear market just feels too easy which makes us think we're missing something and the worst is yet to come. Sure, fair. Maybe some new fud transpires over the next 6 months and it gives us another significant LL. Maybe it doesn't. It's impossible to predict and speculation is just, well, speculation. Reminder: The worst fud event in 2022 was FTX and all it did was give us a 10% LL vs. the 3AC low 6 months prior. So it wasn't even significant. Regardless, all 3 strategies I mentioned above in 2026 terms probably equate to some version of a 50-60k average entry and dealing with some level of uncertainty. I think it all comes down to how much conviction you have in a new BTC ath rally in a few years. Personally, I have that conviction. If I didn't, I wouldn't be here. I moved a third of the cash position that I've been holding since 2024 top into spot BTC this year ~60s avg. I've also been moving all of my perp trading gains into spot BTC once a month since Feb. I will simply continue seeking the opportunity that the current landscape provides. Anyways, 170k in 2 years.