Holger Zschaepitz private account

Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac @Welt and Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addiction to debt. Pics:

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Already thinking about Friday today. On August 11, we launch the successful podcast Deffner and Zschäpitz on TV at 17.45 CET on WELT Fernsehen.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from #Germany where the social contribution burden keeps rising. A new study says the Social Contribution Memorial Day shifts to April 11 in 2026, 2 days later than a year earlier, mainly due to higher health and long-term care costs. The broader social spending ratio has climbed to 31.2% of GDP, while the welfare state’s implicit debt now stands at 204.9% of GDP.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, a country whose influence on the world stage is fading. Its share of global GDP is expected to fall to 4% by 2030.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

MSCI reclassifies #Greece to Developed Market from Emerging Market.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

The Iran War has wiped $12 TRILLION from global markets; more than the entire economies of Germany, Japan, and the UK combined.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from #Germany, where 10y govt bond yields have risen >3%, their highest level since 2011. The recent increase is driven disproportionately by higher long-term inflation expectations – meaning real 10y yields have fallen from 1.35% to 0.77%.
The chart tells a striking story: between 2014 and 2022, real yields were negative, allowing Germany to effectively reduce its debt while “sleeping.” Only since 2022 – and especially after the suspension of the debt brake in 2025 – have investors once again begun to demand positive and higher real interest rates.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where gasoline prices – even before taxes – are now higher than the avg price Americans pay at the pump, taxes included.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

OUCH! European gas jumps after the world’s top LNG plant hit by Iran.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, which investors increasingly see as one of the losers of the current oil shock. Germany’s share of global mkt cap has fallen <1.95%, lowest level since early 2025. There is growing concern that persistently high energy prices could derail fragile economic recovery.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where newly issued debt has so far not been used for investment, but rather to finance election giveaways & plug budget holes – once again proving the laws of political economy. Acc to Ifo, public borrowing rose by €24.3bn in 2025, but federal investment increased by just €1.3bn compared w/2024. That leaves an investment gap of €23bn – a misallocation rate of ~95%.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

OUCH! The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index has slipped into correction territory, falling 10.6% from its recent peak.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where today’s 10y govt bond auction technically failed. Of the €5bn on offer, investors submitted bids for only €4.5bn. In the end, just €3.8bn was placed, at a yield of 2.89%; noticeably higher than the 2.73% achieved at the previous auction in February.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where spot gas prices have surged to above €60 per megawatt hour. That makes natural gas roughly 6 times more expensive here than in the US.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Airline stocks have slipped into a bear market as soaring oil prices pose what analysts call an “existential” threat to the industry. Deutsche Bank warned that the recent spike in fuel costs could severely undermine carriers’ profitability. The bank pointed out that the industry was badly hit the last time fuel prices surged in 2005, a shock that ultimately pushed Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines into bankruptcy. https://t.co/IIglZMakFa

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where retirees face one of Europe’s widest pension gaps. The avg annual public pension (€19,138) falls far short of estimated living costs for over-60s (€28,663) – a 33% shortfall, one of the highest in Europe. Housing is the key driver: 34% of senior spending goes to rent, and ~60% of Germans >65 are tenants; leaving many exposed to rising rents, unlike homeowners in Eastern Europe where property acts as an “invisible second pension.”

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Another day, another AI scare. A Citrini blog post titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” triggered another AI-driven selloff in US equities today. The Goldman Sachs Software At Risk Basket fell 6% today and is now down 33% year to date. https://t.co/TadsDd2D13

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

#Bitcoin drops below $65k, exacerbating the $1tn identity crisis. The cryptocurrency's struggle is about purpose, as it is no longer seen as the best hedge, payment rail, or speculation, forcing a question about what it is for. https://t.co/r0L1XKTtfI

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Even w/those tariffs in place, the US trade deficit stayed deep in the red. At $901bn, it marked the third-largest gap between imports and exports in the country's history. https://t.co/QXQVTkhRNi

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany, where the country appears to be slowly losing its last competitive edge: its strong credit rating. A weak economy, rising debt, and the debate over new Eurobonds have narrowed the yield gap with Italy to just 0.6ppts – the smallest spread since 2008.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

FOBO is the new FOMO. 📉 Fear Of Becoming Obsolete is ripping through the software sector. We are moving from "Generative AI" (tools) to "Agentic AI" (replacements). If your SaaS product just digitizes a process, Anthropic’s Opus 4.6 just made you vulnerable. The "moat" is gone.