HollyG

Former Bond girl turned gambler. This casino will take all your money unless you learn the rules and play to win. 🎰

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Citadel Securities just put institutional weight behind what the AI bulls won't say out loud.

In a new macro note titled "Tokenomics," Citadel makes the argument plainly: even the most powerful technology on earth still has to pass through the boring discipline of cost curves, capacity limits, and marginal returns.

The evidence is piling up:
��� Amazon removed its token usage leaderboard
– Microsoft cancelled Claude Code subscriptions
– Multiple companies reporting unexpectedly massive token bills

Their conclusion is the part that matters.

Adoption is no longer about what AI can do in principle. It's becoming about the price and scarcity of the inputs needed to run it at scale. Compute. Power. Cooling. Memory bandwidth. Inference budgets. All real, all binding constraints.

And here's the kicker from the chart.

The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index, a benchmark for how much the market is actually spending on AI tokens, has started rolling over. Citadel reads it as a shift toward cheaper models. Companies substituting away from expensive frontier AI toward "good enough" alternatives.

That's economics 101 doing what it always does. When the price of something rises, people use less of it, or find a cheaper version.

Citadel sees a bifurcation forming. Frontier AI concentrated among a few firms with the balance sheets to absorb the cost. Everyone else quietly downgrading to simpler, cheaper models.

This is the part of every technology revolution the early narrative ignores.

The technology being real was never the question.

The question was always whether the economics could carry the valuations.

When one of the most sophisticated trading firms on earth starts writing about AI in the language of cost curves and rationing instead of limitless demand, the conversation has quietly changed.

The hype was about what AI could do.

The reckoning is about what it costs.

[Gabe Anderson Trades 🔮 @GAndersonTrades]

$NOW putting in the inverse head and shoulders we ALL wanted 😉 $150+ soon?

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

PIMCO WARNS DEFAULT WAVE IS COMING

PIMCO warns that a credit-loss cycle is underway, with defaults expected to rise sharply among lower-quality borrowers, including leveraged and private credit companies. The firm says AI-driven disruption could hurt heavily indebted businesses, while current credit markets appear complacent about risks. PIMCO favors intermediate-term government bonds, citing recession risks, persistent uncertainty, and the potential for future central-bank rate cuts.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

We joke about this indicator often, but real talk, you buy when extreme fear and sell when extreme greed. That’s it.

[Moose @Brownmoose]

$NOW IF BREAKOUT And retest the resistance on support.

I would put the next 2 target around $143 for a FibExt1

Then bullish Scenario where summer run a bulltrend the Fib1.63 Ext sitting at $168

Ill keep updating the detailed charts to Subscribers and on discord

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

The S&P 500 $SPX is still following the the July 2024 pattern perfectly.

This is suggesting markets bottom today temporarily until mid next week, which lines up perfectly with the BoJ rate decision June 16 and Kevin Warsh's 1st Fed chair meeting June 17.

I've noticed the past 2 days the algos have been pumping market futures then allowing the selloff during regular trading hours. Psychologically they want retail afraid and selling.

If they're setting a pump and dump trap for retail, suddenly that algo will flip with the SpaceX IPO. Markets will dump overnight and rally during the day, with a final upward move that makes retail think the selling is over.

If we continue to follow the July 2024 pattern, expect one more massive leg down after VIXpiration / OpEx next week.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

Here's the problem with SPCX, and no analysis can solve it.

There is no chart.

We have three rules for every IPO:
– Never buy on day one
– Wait for the "Good Chart" to form, enough price history to read trend, support, and the real level
– Ask whether you'd buy at this price if it were already listed

So look at how these stories usually trade. A pop as retail piles in. A long grinding melt as expectations meet reality, often down 50% or more. Then dead money, one to four years of nothing while the company grows into its valuation. And only then, the real move.

Amazon fell almost 90% after listing before it became Amazon. The class of 2021 was brutal: Robinhood -92%, Coinbase -92%, Rivian -95%, Oatly -97% from their day-one highs.

A great business and a great investment are not the same thing. The price you pay decides which one you get.

SpaceX may well be the most important company of the next fifty years.

Which is exactly why there's no rush to overpay on the first afternoon.

The rocket launches today.

The Good Chart launches later.

We'll wait for it.

Full breakdown in this week's Weekly by arvy.

Link via bio.

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

I WARNED you last week the selling was coming.

I WARNED you this week the selling would continue.

Now LISTEN carefully.

This is the MOST important point of the pullback.

$SPY is sitting on the first major support zone of the entire bull market.

Bulls MUST hold here.

Lose it and we head toward the Weekly 21 EMA.

Hold it and the next leg higher begins.

Pay ATTENTION and FOLLOW ME.

I will save you thousands.

[Moose @Brownmoose]

$NOW HOLDER BE AWARE

The previous price action just made the 50Ema cross the 200EMA in the 1HTF

This is usually meaning the trend did pivot to bearish and can lead to more selling.

Until the breakout of the resistance happen , I am not buying back.

Be patient.

[OddStats @OddStats]

CPI (inflation) just came in at 4.2%
The first time it's been over 4% since 2023.

Here's every other time CPI was 4%+ for the first time in at least a year, going back to 1975:

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Remember this.

-5% drops happen 4 times per year.

-10% drops happen once per year.

-20% drops happen once every 4 years.

Red is only temporary.

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

Biggest generational buying opportunity for $SPY is in June.

When $SPY crashes 10%-20% buy these:

1. $NOW ~$105 | Buy zone: $80–$85
Near 52-week lows. Agentic AI platform still printing revenue. Market overreacted to selloff.

2. $BE ~$254 | Buy zone: $160–$180
$2.6B Nebius fuel cell deal validates the thesis. AI power demand is just starting.

3. $SNDK ~$1,645 | Buy zone: $1,100–$1,200
Flash memory demand exploding as AI storage cycle accelerates hard.

4. $NVDA ~$205 | Buy zone: $165–$180
Off the highs but AI capex cycle just entered year three. Pullback is the gift.

5. $QCOM ~$204 | Buy zone: $180–$190
Jensen just publicly endorsed $QCOM. ByteDance ASIC deal massively underappreciated catalyst.

6. $ORCL ~$202 | Buy zone: $160–$170
Earnings tonight. Cloud RPO backlog growing 80%+. Bears get destroyed after this print.

7. $INTC ~$106 | Buy zone: $80–$90
Google sourcing 3M chips in 2028. Turnaround trade with explosive upside from here.

8. $GOOG ~$360 | Buy zone: $300–$320
AI Search monetization + cloud + Waymo. Most undervalued hyperscaler on the board.

9. $MSFT ~$400 | Buy zone: $360–$370
Copilot enterprise rollout just hit NHS 505K employees. Azure AI is compounding daily.

10. $META ~$586 | Buy zone: $520–$530
$145B capex plan + Llama dominance = AI moat nobody's pricing in correctly right now.

11. $AAOI ~$163 | Buy zone: $100–$120
Optical interconnects are the AI bottleneck. AAOI is the pick-and-shovel inside the wall.

12. $LITE ~$807 | Buy zone: $600–$700
Northland just raised PT to $1,200. Photonics supercycle is real and Lumentum owns it.

13. $PLTR ~$132 | Buy zone: $120–$125
85% YoY revenue growth. US gov + enterprise flywheel locked in. Dip buyers always win.

14. $MRVL ~$264 | Buy zone: $180–$200
Jensen called it the next trillion-dollar company. S&P 500 inclusion = forced buying incoming.

15. $AMD ~$461 | Buy zone: $360–$380
MI300X shipments accelerating. Hyperscaler diversification away from NVDA benefits AMD most.

16. $IREN ~$53 | Buy zone: $30–$35
Nvidia took a 30M share option at $70. That's a floor signal from the most credible source.

17. $NBIS ~$214 | Buy zone: $160–$170
Hyper-growth AI cloud. $1.7B UK expansion. BofA just raised PT to $280. Too cheap here.

♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll DM you my top 3 for 10x-20x we can buy later this month.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

The $SPX is down exactly 5% from the ATH peak to today’s intraday trough.

So often we see these violent V shape recoveries back to ATH’s. Actually every time.

So I ask, was today:

THE bottom?

An interim bottom?

Or we are only half way done with this selloff?

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Nobody is trading stocks any more: it's all just options and levered ETFs

[The Analyst @MMatters22596]

I usually don't share this publicly.

$NOW is about to re-enter my buyzone.

And chances are good that it will be the last time.
One of the best software companies to gain high AI-Exposure.

This is a generational entry opportunity.

CEO himself said he is absolutely convinced that $NOW will be a $1T company.
It's only a matter of time.

$90.24 - $67.65

Mark my words.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Bank of America told clients to take profits. Seven of the bank's ten bear market signposts have triggered, matching the average before prior market peaks going back to 1990. The S&P 500 is statistically expensive on 17 of 20 valuation metrics and trades above its own tech-bubble levels on eight.
Tech sector dispersion between winners and losers is the widest since February 2000. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 10% on Friday, its steepest single-day fall since March 2020.

My Take
Hyperscaler capex is on pace to hit 100% of operating cash flow by year-end. In 2023 it was 40%. These companies will soon spend every dollar they earn on AI infrastructure with nothing left over. If the revenue those chips are supposed to produce doesn't arrive, there's no cushion.

The same handful of stocks that carried the index to a record led the selloff on Friday. BofA stopped short of predicting a crash. But seven of ten signposts match the average before every prior peak they've tracked since 1990.

Hedgie🤗

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What just happened?

At 9:45 AM ET, the S&P 500 was trading nearly +1.5% higher and tech stocks were sharply higher.

At 10:40 AM ET, selling pressure began to intensify without any major headlines in one of the biggest reversals of the year.

Just 2 hours later, President Trump said Iran shot down a US helicopter "last night" and that the US must "respond to this attack."

This sent the S&P 500 to a new low of the day, down 240 points since 9:45 AM ET.

In just 3 hours, the S&P 500 has erased -$2.1 trillion in market cap.

Volatility is back.

[Ted @TedPillows]

$780,000,000,000 erased from the US stock market in last 40 minutes.

Damnn...

[Aralez 🐕 @0xAralez]

🚨 S&P 500 IS SETTING UP LAST TRAP BEFORE DUMP

Look at what's actually happening right now:

- Smart money quietly reducing exposure
- Index grinding higher on lowest volume of year
- Retail sentiment at most bullish since early 2022

56 days of aggressive upside and now the whole move is stalling

Breadth is deteriorating - less than 40% of S&P stocks are above their 50-day MA while index sits near highs

That's not a rally. That's a handful of mega-caps dragging corpse higher

Sideways price + shrinking volume + weakening internals = textbook distribution

This is exactly how it looked in Q4 2021 before the 2022 collapse

This is exactly how it looked in July 2024 before the August flush

Large players don't sell all at once - they distribute into strength while retail is still buying the narrative

By time volume confirms the move, exit is already done

Fed still holding rates restrictive, earnings growth slowing, buyback blackout window opens next week

Remove buyback bid and this market has no floor

Not calling an exact top. But setup is there

Turn on notifs - I'll update when the signal confirms

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

SpaceX is now valued at $1.75 trillion. Still private. Still pre-IPO.

For the same money, you could buy the entire publicly-traded aerospace industry. All of it.

GE Aerospace. RTX. Boeing. Airbus. Safran. Honeywell. Rolls-Royce. Lockheed Martin. TransDigm. Northrop Grumman. BAE Systems. Howmet.

Twelve of the most dominant aerospace and defense businesses on the planet. Summed market cap: $1.74 trillion.

SpaceX alone: $1.75 trillion.

One private company. No disclosed earnings. No public track record. No IPO base. And a tech-IPO history that says a 50%+ drawdown in year one is the norm, not the exception.

Versus twelve proven, cash-generating, oligopolistic machines. Decades of recurring aftermarket revenue. Real dividends. Moats so deep there hasn't been a new commercial engine entrant in 50 years.

I know which side of that trade I'm on.

SpaceX is a genuinely remarkable company. The reusable rockets are real. The launch dominance is real. But "remarkable company" and "good investment at $1.75 trillion before it has even priced its IPO" are completely different statements.

Meanwhile the boring side of aerospace keeps quietly compounding:

– GE Aerospace: the engine aftermarket annuity, decades of service revenue per engine
– Safran: #1 worldwide in narrowbody engines, landing gear, and interiors
– TransDigm: the proprietary-parts compounder run like a private equity machine
– HEICO: the family-run FAA-parts business, roughly 22% a year for 35 years
– And in three weeks, the Honeywell Aerospace spin-off lands: $17 billion in revenue, an installed base on virtually every commercial and defense platform on earth, finally trading as a pure-play

The market is offering a clean choice.

One spectacular story about the future. Or the entire proven present that already prints cash, at the same price.

The future is thrilling.

The present pays you to wait.