@adamcanthony@rod_mallo Numbered squares on the carpet outside the gate. Does not have to be strictly policed, but you have the right to cut the line to get to your square. Also travelling parties can stick together.
US margin debt is at historic extremes.
Similar levels were only reached during peak Dot-com bubble and the GFC.
Investors are always the most bullish near market peaks.
This will end in tears.
'OECD singles out Australia’s over-reliance on income tax'
'Australia collected 62.1 per cent of its tax revenue from personal income and corporate profits in 2023, according to the latest figures from the Paris-based OECD – well above the 36.4 per cent average for advanced economies' #ausbiz #taxes
https://t.co/TibD0qySqm
Are we confusing how important AI is with how safe it is to invest in?
Today I’m sitting down with Jeremy Grantham - a man whose firm managed up to $165 billion and helped create one of the world's first index funds.
He has spent more than 60 years studying markets, money, and human behaviour.
Along the way, he’s built a legendary reputation for spotting financial ‘bubbles’ long before most people admit they exist - those rare, dangerous moments when pure excitement and FOMO push asset prices completely out of reality, far beyond what they are actually worth.
And Jeremy believes that exact pattern is happening with AI right now...
We broke this down some more:
- Could AI be revolutionary and still become a dangerous bubble?
- Why do the most exciting stocks often fall the hardest?
- What would happen if AI stocks dropped by 70%?
- How did Amazon fall 92% and still become one of the biggest companies on earth?
- Are markets driven more by psychology than numbers?
- Why is Jeremy moving his own money out of US stocks?
- Could house prices still have further to fall?
And this conversation didn’t stop at markets…
Jeremy also opened up about what’s happening to human fertility…
He broke down why sperm counts have dropped so dramatically since 1970 and the hidden role that pesticides, plastics, and PFAS are playing that most people completely fail to realise.
What became clear to me during our chat is that Jeremy isn't just warning us about AI.
He's warning us about our behaviour around risk - the assumption that because something will matter in the future, any price we pay for it today must be justified.
He wants us to know that something can be revolutionary and STILL be overpriced…
For anyone trying to understand what we might be missing in this AI moment and beyond, this is an essential conversation.
Valuation Update
The indicator in the chart below is based on a wide array of valuation measures, including the P/E ratio, the price to book ratio, EV/EBITDA, and return on equity, and others.
It just exceeded the previous high it made in January.
Source: Bloomberg
Only times in history where the Semiconductor Index gained more than 230% in a 14-month span:
1) December 1998 - February 2000
2) April 2025 - Today
That's the entire list.
Rentier black hole & why property prices keep rising while our productive economy collapses. Note this @Albomp - Economist Henry Fudge's video! #TikTok https://t.co/ffv4Ie1mYt
Australia's Property Obsession is OVER
In Australia, everyone is obsessed with the housing market - and that's because we've seen the biggest housing bubble play out over the past 3 decades. But things are changing and the previous house price trajectory could be gone forever. What will happen to Australian house prices in the future will determine whether housing remains the number one talking point for all Aussies. If you want to support my work, please buy me a coffee here: https://t.co/6LEZUSq9Nd
RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP
On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening.
He also compared the current market to two specific years:
"We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about."
On all tech revolutions:
"All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right."
On the mechanism that pops bubbles:
"There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money."
On the wealth gap that comes with it:
"A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't."
On a political solution:
"I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve."
He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.
@toy59496 You can still debt recycle using any property. But if you use a grandfathered property as collateral to buy shares, you can't claim the depreciation from the property against the dividends of the shares.
🚨 ULTIMA HORA : Google acaba de convertir Street View en un simulador del mundo real.
Genie 3 ahora puede recrear cualquier entorno físico a partir de las imágenes de Street View.
Google lleva filmando el planeta desde 2007.
Miles de millones de calles, edificios y barrios enteros almacenados en sus servidores.
Durante años, todo el mundo pensó que era solo para orientarse.
Era en realidad la mayor recopilación de datos del mundo real de la historia.
Y acaban de decidir hacer algo con ello.