Flaten

Stability and resilience guide my investments, focusing on strong Western companies.

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

I’ve just published a full investor report breaking down which defense companies stand to gain the most from a potential European-led reassurance force in Ukraine!
On my Patreon for Free!
https://t.co/OzNwsvUOjW

$BA $RHM.DE $LDO.MI $LMT $RTX $AIR.PA $HO.PA $ITA $CIBR $SAABB.ST

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

We saw a strong boost across space stocks, followed by a sell-off when the $SPCX IPO went live. As discussed beforehand, we did not know whether the IPO would immediately lift publicly traded space companies or temporarily pull capital away from them.

Our strategy was clear: if the sector sold off, we would use the lower levels to add because nothing had fundamentally changed in Rocket Lab’s long-term thesis. In fact, the broader outlook for the space industry has only become more bullish.

Space stocks remain high-beta investments. When a rocket fails or explodes, negative sentiment can pull down the entire sector, even when the event has nothing to do with Rocket Lab. The opposite can also happen. Successful SpaceX launches, strong execution and bullish analyst re-ratings can improve sentiment across the wider space sector and support other publicly traded space companies.

$RKLB Lab CEO Peter Beck has said that approximately 30% of the objects going into space contain something carrying the Rocket Lab logo. This highlights that Rocket Lab is already much more than simply a launch company.

The company is building toward becoming a one-stop shop for space, covering launch vehicles, satellites, spacecraft components, propulsion systems, optical and laser communications, satellite manufacturing, robotics and planetary rovers. Rather than relying on one product or one rocket, Rocket Lab is developing capabilities across almost the entire space value chain.

This is a growth story in full effect.

The timeline presented here covers only a small selection of Rocket Lab’s potential catalysts over the coming months. We are far from running out of drivers. Electron’s launch cadence continues, satellite manufacturing is ramping, major government contracts are moving toward revenue recognition, and Neutron is approaching its maiden flight.

Neutron could mark the next major stage in Rocket Lab’s transformation—from a small-launch provider into a vertically integrated space prime capable of competing for much larger commercial and government contracts.

We should expect sharp swings in both directions, particularly around launches and major industry events. However, I continue to believe that space represents one of the most important technological and industrial frontiers of the coming decade.

Volatility will remain part of the journey, but the long-term opportunity remains firmly intact.

Thank you for reading and have a good weekend.

For a better quality image check out the PDF document in the link below:
https://t.co/NWEB5pPngi

$NASA $ARKX

[Yoni Assia @yoniassia]

Just before their biggest ever IPO!
@eToro @SpaceX @xai

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Circling Back on $LAES & $ASPI — Still on the Radar
Dear Investor,

Back in November I laid out the case for two of our more specialist names — SEALSQ (LAES) and ASP Isotopes (ASPI) — in the reports pinned below. If you need a refresher on why they fit the desk's thesis (cyber-defense and critical-materials resilience), those reports still hold up as the foundation. This is just a quick check-in, because both have been back in conversation lately and I want you in the loop on where my head's at.

A bit of housekeeping first: we entered both names, then sold into strength back in January — and that discipline paid off, because both subsequently sold off hard. Since then they've been quietly grinding back higher on real, fundamental news, which is what put them back on my watchlist. But here's the honest, real-time picture: today both are down double digits (LAES around $3.20, ASPI around $6.71). So the very thing I'd want to see before re-entering — sustained price and momentum. Since we don't chase, and we don't catch falling knives. We watch. And enter when the price has stabilized.

ASP Isotopes (ASPI) — the key supplier in the high-stakes puzzle. The fundamental story has matured nicely. Q1 2026 revenue came in around $4.2M, almost quadruple a year ago, with a narrower loss and a solid cash position (~$290M between cash and short-term investments). The operational milestones are the real tell: they've restarted their Silicon-28 enrichment facility in South Africa, it's been running at target levels for weeks, and they're guiding to first commercial shipments in Q3 2026 against three U.S. customer contracts. Their Quantum Leap Energy arm also signed a HALEU supply MOU with a European reactor partner. Each of those landed with a sharp double-digit pop — which is exactly why the stock ran up toward $10 before today's pullback to the high-$6s. That kind of volatility cuts both ways, and right now it's cutting down.

SEALSQ (LAES) — the digital guardian. Same flavor of progress underneath. Q1 2026 revenue more than tripled year-over-year, capping a 2025 that grew ~66% to roughly $18M. The signal I care about is product execution: their QS7001 post-quantum chip passed its critical security certifications (side-channel and fault-injection testing), and management now points to a $200M+ commercial pipeline through 2029. They've also been busy on M&A — folding in IC'Alps for custom silicon and adding stakes in quantum names like Miraex, Wecan, and Quobly. Worth keeping the bear voice in view, though: at least one analyst still carries a Sell with a $2 target. This stays a conviction name, not a consensus one — and today's drop is a reminder of that.

Bottom line: the original thesis is intact and arguably stronger — both companies have de-risked it by actually shipping product and signing contracts. But re-entry is a price and timing decision, not just a story decision, and today's action says wait. I'd rather miss the first 10% of a clean move than buy into a slide. They're firmly on the watchlist; the moment the setup firms up, you'll hear it from me first.

Full original reports are below for the deep dive.

Have a good Sunday, and see you tomorrow when the market opens!
https://t.co/UuMrhdMCsE

If you want to copy my trades of follow my research you can do so with the link below: https://t.co/x1ATPBbzq3

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Market Recap – Weekend Special, June 6th

Take a deep breath. Yesterday’s sell-off was classic noise, not a new regime.

On June 5 we saw the Nasdaq 100 sell off in a clean line of red hourly candles, the S&P 500 give back a large chunk of recent gains, and Bitcoin continue to slide from its 2025 highs. The trigger was a stronger-than-expected May jobs report at +172k versus roughly +85k consensus, which briefly pushed the 10-year yield into the 4.52%–4.55% zone. The usual “good news is bad news” framing took over, we got some profit-taking in crowded AI names after Broadcom’s update, and oil stayed sticky on the Iran headline loop.

Here’s the important part: nothing fundamental changed.

The jobs number looked hot on the headline, but the internals were not the kind of overheating signal that forces a new macro regime. The bulk of the strength came from leisure and hospitality, local government, and healthcare. Wage growth came in at +0.3% month over month and has been cooling relative to inflation, which is consistent with the same resilient-but-not-overheating labor market we’ve been living with for months. In other words, it’s not a sudden reflation shock. It’s the same slow grind.

The yield move was mechanical and it’s already fading in futures. There was no breakout and no panic. We’re still well within the same 4.4%–4.6% range that has defined the market’s push-pull between growth optimism and inflation vigilance. If yields were ripping through levels and holding there for weeks, that would be different. Yesterday wasn’t that. And this is exactly what we’ve discussed before: the 10-year is likely going to swing more up and down than it used to. That will create more volatility in equities, but not necessarily more danger. Bigger intraday moves can become the new normal in a world where positioning is tighter, narratives rotate faster, and macro data gets repriced instantly. Volatility is not the same thing as permanent risk if you own high-quality assets and your time horizon is measured in years.

AI demand did not crack. $AVGO ’s quarter was strong, AI revenue doubled year over year, and management again described hyperscaler demand in a way that clearly implies it isn’t slowing. The stock reaction had the feel of classic “sell the news” after a strong run, amplified by crowded positioning. That is not a signal that the capex cycle is over. It’s the market doing what it always does when trades get one-sided.

Oil and Iran remain a premium, but it’s still headline risk more than a structural supply shock. Peace talk headlines come and go, OPEC+ spare capacity remains meaningful, and non-OPEC supply continues to grow. The risk is persistence. The base case is that when we get a credible off-ramp, the premium can unwind fast.

And the Fed is not suddenly about to turn hawkish. The market still overwhelmingly prices a hold at the June 16–17 meeting. The path that matters for 2026 is whether cuts arrive later if growth softens, not whether hikes return. Yesterday’s print doesn’t create a credible tightening path on its own.

So the bigger picture stays intact. The economy is still growing, the soft-landing framework is still alive, and the AI buildout remains the strongest secular tailwind of our investing lifetime. What happened yesterday is what happens when positioning gets crowded and the market overreacts to one noisy data point. It’s healthy volatility, not a trend change.

One additional note I’m watching closely is capital raising. I believe we’re going to see more MAG 7 companies issue stock or use financing tools to fund the scale of AI capex that’s coming. We already saw $GOOG set the tone with large-scale funding plans, and reportedly also $META is planning to do one. If $AMZN , which we own, does something similar, don’t panic. Treat it as what it is: a temporary sentiment hit that creates a better entry. These companies raise capital because they see decades of opportunity, not because they’re in trouble.

Finally, this is also why I added to the account yesterday, as we always do around end of month or start of month. The whole point is to keep buying through ups and downs because we’re not in this for a daily or monthly outcome. We’re in this for the long term. It needs to rain for us to appreciate the sun, and these drawdowns are exactly where weaker hands drop off and leverage gets crushed. That’s why I always recommend not over-fixating on the numbers on the screen. Create distance. Live your life. Go for a walk, work out, watch a movie. Life goes on even when the market is red, and the market recovers again in time. Without fear, there wouldn’t be mispricings, and without mispricings there wouldn’t be great opportunities.

Stay calm, stay invested, stay disciplined. The setup is still excellent.

Have a good weekend and I see you on Monday!

If you want to copy my trades of follow my research you can do so with the link below: https://t.co/x1ATPBbzq3

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Hey @amitisinvesting , @stevenfiorillo and @basispointpod — you should have @yoniassia on the podcast.

I’d love to hear a discussion about the future of fintech, social investing, the global expansion of eToro, copy trading, crypto, and where investing platforms are heading over the next decade. I think it would make for a fantastic conversation.

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Weekend Research Report — Ouster ($OUST)

This weekend’s research report focuses on Ouster, a company that I believe is no longer just a lidar hardware vendor, but potentially becoming one of the key sensing-layer platforms for Physical AI.

Since our January Weekend Research and entry around $26.36, the stock has already moved roughly 75%, and the easy asymmetry is no longer the same as it was earlier in the year. However, the thesis itself has become much larger. We are now raising conviction, with a base case target of $50, a bull case of $75, and a bear case floor raised to $32.

The biggest change is that Ouster now has three major pillars behind the story.

First, the original smart-infrastructure thesis remains intact. BlueCity continues to build momentum, with traffic-intersection deployments and recurring analytics potential creating a stronger infrastructure flywheel.

Second, the Stereolabs acquisition gives Ouster a much more complete platform. By combining lidar, cameras, AI compute, and perception software, Ouster is moving closer to becoming a unified sensing platform for robotics and Physical AI.

Third, the Rev8 OS family and the new L4 silicon introduce native-color lidar, higher resolution, and range of up to around 500 meters. This is important because it could allow lidar to compete not just as a depth sensor, but potentially as a camera-replacement layer in robotics, autonomy, robotaxis, and industrial systems.

The NVIDIA relationship is also a major part of this re-rating. Ouster’s Rev8 qualification across DRIVE Hyperion, Jetson, Thor, and Isaac Sim gives the company a much stronger position inside the broader robotics and autonomous-systems ecosystem.

Financially, Ouster is still early and still unprofitable, but the growth is real. Q1 revenue came in at $48.6 million, up 49% year-over-year, with product revenue growing 55% and marking the 13th consecutive quarter of product-revenue growth. The company also guided Q2 above consensus, supported by the first full quarter of Stereolabs contribution and continued smart-infrastructure momentum.

The report also goes through the key catalysts to watch over the next 6–12 months, including Rev8 shipping, named robotics or autonomous-vehicle design wins, software-attach visibility, more BlueCity municipal contracts, and any expansion of the Amazon relationship.

The risks are also clear. Ouster remains a high-beta concept stock, valuation has already moved sharply, margins need to prove durable, and competition from players such as Hesai and Innoviz could pressure pricing. Dilution and cash burn also remain important watch items.

For my Defense & Innovation framework, Ouster fits very well. It sits at the intersection of smart infrastructure, robotics, autonomy, drones, and dual-use sensing. With DoD UAS vetting, ISO 27001 certification, Buy America alignment, and a position as a Western alternative to Chinese lidar competitors, Ouster has a strong strategic angle in a world where sensing, autonomy, and machine perception become increasingly important.

The bottom line: BlueCity was the beachhead. Robotics is the new front. NVIDIA is the highway.

Ouster is no longer the cheap option it was in January, but it may now be entering a second re-rating phase as the market begins to price it as a Physical AI platform rather than just a lidar vendor.

Full report can be found down below.
https://t.co/v9FSYu1YYn

If you want to copy my trades of follow my research you can do so with the link below: https://t.co/x1ATPBbzq3

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

$OUST — Small-cap, big thesis

I posted my thesis on the name back in January 26 and it is now picking up speed.

$OUST is now up 60%+ over the last month, and the market is starting to understand that this is not just a lidar sensor story.

The real angle is infrastructure.

Ouster’s new lidar system strengthens the hardware side, but the bigger upside is what happens when these sensors become installed across cities, intersections, traffic corridors, and autonomy networks. Once the hardware is in place, the opportunity can move toward software, analytics, recurring data, and smart-city infrastructure.

This also ties directly into the autonomy theme. Robotaxis still struggle with blind spots, intersections, trucks, pedestrians, and complex traffic flows. A city-mounted lidar network can become an “eye in the sky” safety layer.

Add the $NVDA cooperation into the picture, and the story becomes even more interesting: better perception, smarter infrastructure, and a clearer path toward being part of the physical AI/autonomy stack.

Still high beta. Still risky. But this is why I like $OUST.

Not just lidar.
Infrastructure, data, and autonomy.

https://t.co/g6SPT7OCIx

If you want to copy my trades of follow my research you can do so with the link below: https://t.co/x1ATPBbzq3

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

@yoniassia @eToro Kudos to you and the team👏🏻🥳

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Market Recap – Thursday, May 7th

Yesterday felt like a breath of fresh air for a lot of our holdings. We also saw Japan rip higher, with the Nikkei up about 6% and SoftBank hitting an upside circuit breaker, up roughly 20% on the day. We’ve initiated $5802.T SumitomoElectric, but because Japan has been closed for Golden Week we didn’t get filled until this morning. Even so, we’re already up about 5% on the position. This is a name I will be releasing a Weekend Research on, because it sits at the intersection of defense buildout and AI data center infrastructure.

This recap will be earnings-focused. I still need time to listen to all the calls, so consider these the key takeaways from what I’ve been able to extract from reading and initial review.

Starting with our uranium enrichment bottleneck, $LEU . Centrus’ Q1 2026 performance continues to be driven by one core strategy: scale domestic enrichment capacity and lock in demand while the U.S. rebuilds its nuclear fuel security. The company is investing heavily in expansion efforts, particularly tied to Piketon, Ohio and Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The government backing here remains meaningful, with a $900M DOE award supporting the buildout. What matters just as much is demand visibility: they now have a contingent LEU sales commitment backlog totaling $2.4B. The “hidden angle” is execution. Centrus is building an ecosystem of partners to compress lead times and reduce cost. The Fluor partnership matters because it brings engineering, design, supply chain and project management experience that was critical in the earlier demonstration cascade. And the Palantir partnership, started in late January, has already identified about $300M in potential cost savings and efficiency gains, with additional opportunities expected to reduce manufacturing lead times and accelerate the timetable for new capacity.

On our drone battery name, $AMPX , we’ve already trimmed substantially because this is a volatile stock and earnings season has punished even good reports. But the underlying story is improving. Q1 2026 showed strong execution in expanding the customer base and securing new orders across multiple end markets. The two key proof points were scale and diversification. First, they disclosed $500M in new orders from longstanding U.S. defense customers, plus an additional $3.3M added to their DIU contract, bringing that total DIU contract value to $18.1M. Second, they landed a $21M purchase order for SiCore cylindrical cells from a premier electric mobility customer in China, which signals successful entry into the light EV segment. Operationally, their “manufacturing-light” model is becoming more credible as they deepen contract manufacturing partnerships, including Nanotech Energy as a U.S. production partner, which also reinforces the NDAA compliance pathway and supports future margin expansion. This is how you build a high-performance battery business without blowing up the balance sheet.

On one of our heavyweights, $RHM.DE , Rheinmetall’s Q1 confirmed the long-cycle ramp is still intact. Sales grew 8% year over year to about €1.94B, operating result rose 17% to €224M, and operating margin expanded to 11.6%. Order backlog surged 31% to about €73.0B and the book-to-bill was a strong 2.08x, with net debt to EBITDA sitting at a very comfortable 0.39x. Strategically, the NVL acquisition is already contributing, adding €77M in sales and €5.495B to backlog in just its first month. They’re also pushing hard into autonomy across domains, with partnerships and joint ventures spanning unmanned surface vessels and broader drone coverage with what they frame as €1.0–€1.5B per year sales potential in that segment. The new “Rheinmetall Destinus Strike Systems” JV is another important signal: cruise missiles and ballistic rocket artillery manufacturing with production targeted starting Q4 2026 or Q1 2027. Guidance was reaffirmed: €14.0–€14.5B in 2026 sales, 40%–45% growth, and operating margin around 19%, with a backend-loaded year and acceleration expected in Q2. The most important practical takeaway is that nominations expected in Q2 are massive, and that’s when we should get more clarity on the next step-up in backlog.

On $KTOS , Kratos delivered what we want to see from the “ecosystem” layer of defense. Strong organic growth across segments, with Unmanned Systems growing about 30.9% organically, driven by Valkyrie-related activity, and Government Solutions up about 11.8% organically. Inside the government business, the growth rates were particularly strong in Defense Rocket Systems, Turbine Technologies, and Microwave Products. The demand signal remains the key: a consolidated book-to-bill of 1.6x for the quarter, 1.2x over the last 12 months, total backlog of $2.01B, and a bid/proposal pipeline of $14.3B. The company’s internal investment strategy in R&D and capacity is paying off because the market is moving into a generational recapitalization of the defense industrial base. Kratos is positioned as a qualified provider right where demand is being pulled forward.

Options flow was extremely constructive today, with bullish sentiment at 88.74% versus bearish at 11.26%. In this kind of tape, that matters because it tells you the market is not only buying, it’s leaning. The key for us is to keep the discipline: let the earnings and guidance do the work, keep sizing correct, and use volatility to add when we get dislocations rather than chasing euphoric candles.

Thank you for reading and see you When The Market Opens!

If you want to copy my trades of follow my research you can do so with the link below: https://t.co/x1ATPBbzq3

[Timothy 🟢 | Panic Drop @timoassi]

eToro just launched their App Store.

So I picked a random app and unboxed it on camera.

The one I tested: an institutional database built by Sondre Flateraaker (@Homemadeflaten on X, Sondre Reynoso Flateraaker, Top 10 Most Copied from Switzerland). It tracks how big money is flowing in and out of stocks like Palantir, NVIDIA, Tesla, Meta and Booking.

What stood out:
Clean design. Dark mode by default. Fast page transitions. The weekly drop shows new institutional reasons, added tickers and dropped tickers in one view.

Where it can grow:
The research is dense. Phrases like "step function derating event" and "agentic share loss" are gold for popular investors but heavy for someone just starting out.

My scores after first glance:
Design: 8/10
Use case: 7/10

A short onboarding tutorial would push the use case score way up.

Big respect to Sondre for shipping this. Building something this polished and putting it out there for the eToro community is exactly the kind of energy the platform needs. My feedback is meant to help, not tear down. Apps like this make the App Store actually worth opening.

Have you tried any of the apps in the eToro App Store yet? Which one should I review next?

Links:
https://t.co/tHLraERtc3
@eToro

$SPY

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Hey! Thank you so much for taking the time to actually look through the page and understand what it is about. I really appreciate the feedback.

I am currently working on making it more novice-friendly and more streamlined for retail investors. Some functions are also working better than others, so it is still very much a work in progress, but I used up all my tokes so need to wait :D

One of the newest additions is that when you are looking at a specific name, you can click “Full Report” to see all the institutional reasons behind that stock. You can also extract the report and place it into your own AI tool to build a bull or bear case for the name you are interested in.

I am happy that you also see how this can be a useful tool for finding new names or building more conviction in the ones you already hold. I will continue to update it and improve it over time.

And again, thank you for making the video. I really appreciate it.

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Good Saturday everyone,
I released this week’s Weekend Research ahead of the usual Sunday drop. This week’s report focuses on $6857.T (Advantest Corp.) / $ATEYY and why I believe the company could become one of the most important testing bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure cycle.

The thesis is simple: as hyperscalers keep spending aggressively on AI data centers, GPUs, networking, silicon photonics, and advanced compute infrastructure, the testing layer becomes increasingly important. Advantest sits directly in that layer.

The full research paper, video and slide deck is now available on Patreon. https://t.co/NjxJ9BddNZ

If you want to copy my trades of follow my research you can do so with the link below: https://t.co/x1ATPBbzq3

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

MTU Aero Engines ( $MTX.DE ) just dropped a monster Q1 2026!

- Military revenue +25%
- Commercial MRO +8% (US$ MRO +20%)
- Revenue €2.24B (+7%)
- Free cash flow +18%
- Order book €31.6B — sold out for the next 3 full years

Big strategic move: Acquired AeroDesignWorks to dominate the exploding military drone market (12.5% CAGR expected)Dividend jacked 64% to €3.60 per share

Full-year guidance confirmed — still very bullish!I’m already positioned heavy on this in my eToro portfolio.

Want to see exactly what I’m holding?https://t.co/x1ATPBbzq3
Bullish on MTU or passing? Tell me below
#MTUAero #Aerospace #DefenseStocks #Investing #UAV

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Good day,

Last weekend’s research we looked at MTU Aero Engines ( $MTX.DE ), a European aerospace name I believe deserves more attention.

The market still seems focused on the GTF issue, but MTU continues to execute, cash flow is improving, and the new UAV propulsion angle could add meaningful upside over time.

Full report, slide deck, and video:
https://t.co/6qHsrhG735

Follow or copy my portfolio on eToro:
https://t.co/x1ATPBbzq3

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Market Recap – Thursday, April 30th

We’re still seeing the same tape conditions: low volume, fragile participation, and broad selling pressure outside of Energy and Semis. This is the kind of market where price can drift lower simply because big money is waiting, not because the long-term fundamentals suddenly broke. And that’s why patience matters here. When you have an increase in the U.S. defense budget, Europe talking about 5% defense spending, and a world that is clearly moving into rearmament and industrial mobilization, the setup is not “thesis broken.” The setup is “sentiment washed out.” The frustrating part is timing. The opportunity is that sentiment eventually turns, and when it does, it turns fast.

You can see the same behavior in space. The moment SpaceX IPO talk becomes “yesterday’s news,” the sector sells off. Not because the thesis changes, but because markets rotate narratives daily. That’s why we keep our process simple: locate where fundamentals remain intact, where the long-term runway is still there, and where price has moved away from fair value. We are overweight in $RHM.DE and $RKLB, which are 2 of my highest-conviction names, and when they swing we get dragged down or pulled up depending on the day. Add on the negative GDP sentiment in Europe and you get another headwind, and with Rocket Lab still waiting on the Neutron timeline and the next major validation point, we are in limbo. That’s not comfortable, but it’s not unusual in high-conviction themes.

The main overhang I want resolved is still the Strait of Hormuz disruption. The longer this drags on, the worse the macro gap becomes. Not only for one region, but for the global economy. The point isn’t that we sell high-conviction holdings because of that. The point is that this kind of macro shock can create better entry points while the market overreacts. I want the strait open because we need energy flow normalization sooner rather than later, before the second-order damage becomes harder to reverse.

Underneath the weak tape, we’re still seeing the “back-end” of our thesis keep building. $GILT continues to stack contracts. Gilat Defense received an order for over $7M through a prime contractor supporting the U.S. Department of War, tied to Wavestream’s EnduroStream solid-state power amplifier solution with delivery expected over the next 24 months. What matters here is not just the dollars. It’s that EnduroStream opens a new category inside defense by replacing older traveling wave tube amplifiers with high-power SSPAs designed for resiliency, reliability, and better lifecycle economics. That’s how companies quietly expand TAM in mission-critical markets while the stock gets priced like nothing is happening.

$FTAI also printed a strong Q1 2026 and continues to validate why we’ve been tracking it as a long-duration infrastructure lever. They reported $831M revenue, $134M net income, and $326M Adjusted EBITDA, with $412M cash. They also upsized the revolver dramatically from $400M to $2.025B, and leverage remains disciplined at 2.3x Net Debt to RR adjusted EBITDA, below their stated target range. The real strategic story remains FTAI Power. They’re building an asset-light power generation segment targeting production launch in Q4 2026 and 100 units in 2027. The Mod-1 concept is simple but powerful: speed to power. A compact 25MW unit that can be deployed quickly, serviced modularly with minimal downtime, and scaled using an existing maintenance footprint and engine inventory. Management commentary around advanced customer conversations for 2027–2028 units, hyperscalers, data centers, and gas distributors is exactly what you want to see if this becomes a real “data center power bottleneck” solution.

On mega-cap, I still view $AMZN as a sleeper pick this year in the same way we viewed Google as the clean winner in prior years. Amazon’s Q1 2026 was strong: $181.5B revenue up 17% YoY, and operating income of $23.9B. The most important line for us is AWS accelerating to 28% YoY growth, the fastest pace in 15 quarters, reaching a $150B annualized run rate. The AI monetization layer is now meaningful, with AWS AI revenue run rate over $15B and Bedrock showing explosive consumption behavior. But the real structural angle is custom silicon. Amazon’s chip business is now over a $20B annualized run rate, growing triple digits. Jassy explicitly framed that as a $50B business if it were a standalone merchant supplier. Then you have the lock-in cadence: Trainium2 largely sold out, Trainium3 nearly fully subscribed at launch, and Trainium4 already carrying significant reservations even though it’s still far out. That demand structure is not a one-quarter story. It is a multi-cycle margin story. If Trainium really saves tens of billions in CapEx annually and gives several hundred basis points of operating margin advantage over time, Street models will have to catch up. Add in the breadth of the business, from ads to retail units growth, to an AWS backlog number that continues to expand, and you have a compounding machine that still doesn’t feel fully priced for what it’s becoming.

Finally, $NET is worth flagging again because flow is point to a strong setup into next week. The channel story has historically been a bear-case pillar for Cloudflare, but recent survey data suggests the VAR participation rate is at record levels and underperformance is at a survey-low, while developer services mentions are at all-time highs. That’s a structural go-to-market inflection if it persists. The other point is that the last major selloff was driven by a narrative misread around Anthropic’s ecosystem potentially disintermediating infrastructure. Channel checks suggest the opposite: customer spend is accelerating due to higher security module and compute attach rates. Cloudflare’s security revenue is anchored to its global network, and AI workloads still route through that physical infrastructure regardless of which agent wins. If demand is accelerating while the stock trades near the low end of its valuation range, that dislocation becomes the entry rather than a reason to doubt the thesis.

Option flow stayed constructive with bullish sentiment at 66.33% versus bearish at 33.67%. That fits what we’re seeing. The market is cautious, participation is thin, and leadership is narrow. But beneath the surface, fundamentals in the names we care about keep strengthening. That’s usually how the next rotation builds before the tape finally acknowledges it.

https://t.co/vTeXO3Qw3M

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

@soumyasen @TheStockGuyTV You need to get this dude on stream!

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

@yoniassia @eToro @grok @X Great upgrade!

[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

Good afternoon all,

With the war starting this morning with Iran vs US/Israel. I wanted to do a refresher for long-time followers of the portfolio and a clear introduction for new investors who want to understand the strategy behind the Global Innovation & Defense Portfolio.

"Hedge Against War — Special Intelligence Briefing"

We invest in innovation and technological progress, while simultaneously hedging our capital against a world that is becoming more unstable and fragmented.

The era of the post-Cold War peace dividend is fading. Declining defense budgets, frictionless globalization, and the assumption that major geopolitical conflict was unlikely are increasingly being replaced by a world defined by great-power competition, energy security, technological sovereignty, and the re-armament of Western democracies.

This portfolio was built with that reality in mind.

The Two Pillars of the Strategy

1. Innovation-driven growth
We continue to invest in companies building the future of technology:
AI, space infrastructure, data intelligence, cybersecurity, and advanced computing. These remain some of the most powerful long-term compounding sectors in the global economy.

2. A hedge against geopolitical instability
At the same time, the portfolio maintains strong exposure to sectors that benefit from rising security spending — defense systems, satellite communications, cyber defense, and government technology. As geopolitical tensions increase, these industries are entering what could become a multi-year defense and security spending cycle.

Important Note on the Analysis

The analysis in this report is not a prediction of outcomes, but rather a framework based on historical precedent and observed market behavior during past conflicts.

Markets have shown consistent patterns during Middle East conflicts, where defense and security-related companies tend to outperform while broader markets initially react to uncertainty. However, each conflict is unique and results may differ depending on escalation, duration, and macroeconomic conditions.

Because of that, I treat these events as real-time data points to refine the portfolio.

We saw this during:
• The 12-day conflict last year, where we observed how defense, space, and cyber names reacted in real time
• The Venezuela operation, which provided another market reaction case study for geopolitical escalation

Each of these events provides valuable information on how capital flows into security-related sectors during crises.

Using Conflicts as Market Intelligence
Rather than simply reacting to headlines, the goal is to study how markets behave during these events.

This current situation will be treated the same way — as another data collection point to better understand:
• how defense stocks react to escalation
• how capital rotates between risk assets and security assets
• how different parts of the defense value chain perform

That information allows us to fine-tune the portfolio over time.

The Bigger Strategic Lens: China vs Taiwan
The long-term strategic risk that underpins the portfolio has always been the China–Taiwan scenario.

Many current geopolitical developments — including tensions in the Middle East — can indirectly impact that broader strategic picture. Disruptions to energy supply chains, military stockpile depletion, and shifting alliances can all influence China’s ability and timing to project power in the Indo-Pacific.
Understanding how these events unfold helps refine the portfolio so that it remains positioned for what we believe is the main geopolitical event of the decade.

Inside the Report

In this briefing you will find:
• The full Hedge Against War thesis
• The China–Taiwan strategic lens behind the portfolio
• The munitions depletion and defense restocking cycle
• Scenario analysis for markets and the portfolio
• A breakdown of the top conviction holdings

The goal is simple:
To build a portfolio that benefits from innovation during stable periods, but also remains resilient — and potentially advantaged — when geopolitical instability increases.

PS: This report does not take into account smaller sub contractors or ETF's like $ITA , $COPX , $PKE , $AMPX and $LASR that will also benefit from this.

Full report and slide deck can be found in the link below! https://t.co/fuOIPTHpm0

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[Flaten @Homemadeflaten]

My #eToroRecap2025 is out!
Grateful for the year and the community we have built.

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