I observed every single $BTC bear cycle.
Key update:
Practically every single cycle, we complete a 5-wave correction. We also tend to form two significant bear market highs. The first comes immediately after the initial top on the first major retrace. This is the complacency high, the point where the majority believe the bull market is back.
It's exactly why I took shorts from 96K down to 70K this cycle. Once that complacency high is established, price usually pushes to fresh lows as the macro correction continues.
We saw this in 2014, 2022, and again in 2026. In 2018, price didn't make a new low after the complacency bounce, but the overall structure remained very similar with multiple retests.
Shortly afterwards, we typically get a dead cat bounce. Across the previous cycles, this dead cat bounce establishes the base low. By this stage, most market participants have already been wrecked after buying into complacency, sentiment is at its worst, and everyone begins aggressively piling into shorts.
Delta flips, shorts get squeezed, and price rallies. At the end of the day, it's simply market psychology. After the dead cat base low is formed, the final bottom is usually established following the second major retest.
We saw this in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Fast forward to today, BTC has swept the dead cat base low and completed the same 5-wave corrective structure we've seen throughout previous cycles.
The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. Every previous bear market has lasted roughly 365 days before putting in the final bottom. If the low is already in this cycle, it would have formed in around 260 days, roughly 100 days earlier than every previous cycle.
That's why I'm still 50/50. Structure suggests the bottom is in. Timing suggests it isn't. Eventually, cycle lengths will change. The mistake is assuming they never will. We need to be prepared for that possibility.
We'll likely have our answer over the next couple of months, but it's worth pointing out that, from a structural perspective, every corrective wave has now been completed and the lows appear to have been established.
There is a very good chance we get some chop from here, but in terms of the low being in, I think it's more likely we form higher lows than make significant new lows.
$OIL | USCRUDE
Called the bottom by using the GOLD:OIL part chart
Called all the trades in the @prntwrx discord, just another example of how the context is so important.
Speaking of which, check the comments for the OIL:COPPER chart, just come into supply which is going to be telling for how Oil performs from here.
this plus the wildest log chart of this cycle is hidden in the @virtuals_io ecosystem
- first run 1000x ROI
- 8 months of consolidation
- next run next
"the next $TIBBIR is TIBBIR out of stealth."
- Frogdhi de Von Nextus
Bitcoin.
Last bull run was HEAVILY suppressed.
Reduced liquidity, OBSCENE manipulation & it STILL put in a +750% move.
It was a mere warm up for what we are about to see.
Stay bullish.
here is some more interesting stuff for u
1. $TIBBIR is up +68267% against Virtual's ecosystem asset
2. 100% supply in circulation
3. will likely be deflationary
4. it's Ribbit Cap's own token
5. Tibbir main LP is against virtual
6. virtual has never been in a bull since tibbir was launched
7. this will likely change now bc of robinhood, more announcements, upcoming new revenue stream
8. Tibbir will still likely continue to outperform it
so the tldr: tibbir is like 10x+ longing the @virtuals_io eco (plus the broader agentic space) without liquidation risk
IF the underlying product built in stealth is truly a visa inspired trust layer/oracle, tibbir will sit on top of all the agents, platforms & ecosystems...
infinite ceiling tbh
I’ve seen this so many times now.
The market gets primed to move, ethereum:0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933 and the boys club stay compressed.
Then they absolutely explode leading the market.
Like beach balls under water.
We are seeing fresh loaded wallets start to ape ethereum:0x67466be17df832165f8c80a5a120ccc652bd7e69 with size.
In the end
It will be extremely obvious that you should have loaded the bottom.
@Wolf0x67 🐺
The boys club is already time tested.
And of course there will be many derivatives but the OGs will be the largest gainers.
$PEPE | @pepecoineth
$BRETT | @BasedBrett
$WOLF | @Wolf0x67
$ANDY | @andycoinonerc
Many will come after and try to steal the show but the fact of the matter is the market has already decided.
And the community’s have already survived multiple wars, liquidation events and meme apocalypse.
Watch what happens next.
We have trained our whole lives for this moment ⚔️
Through the warthog wars and the energy sword battles
WE ARE READY 🥊
We won’t jeet the peoples BITCOIN (ethereum:0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933)
As this is our best chance at a better life
Clarity act coming 🔜
Expect us 🐸
@pepecoineth
One of the largest sleepers in the space right now is $ANDY
It’s flying under the radar
With a MC of 8.3M and a ATH of 330M this thing is primed for some monster upside
I wouldn’t be suprised to see @andycoinonerc dominate the first big leg up
Very Nice, Great Success 🚀