Hormuz Weekly

Supply-side oil disruption model. Tracking the Hormuz crisis daily. Weekly trading strategy every Friday. By @BujiCapital.

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. 80 mines. Zero major carriers. SPR at a 40-year low. And Brent is at $80. We built a model that tracks the actual supply disruption — not the headlines. Daily updates. Weekly strategy https://t.co/W6C6DGcVRH

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

HORMUZ — July 22

THREE vessels. That's it.

Hormuz traffic collapsed to 3/day (vs 130 pre-war).
Brent: $93.50 — 6-week high, +2.7% today.

Analysts warning $120 if this persists.
Since inception: model now +20%+

The physics always win.

https://t.co/W6C6DGco29

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

HORMUZ — July 21

MOU dead. Iran exited.
Transit: <10/day (near standstill)
Brent: $92.28
Net shortage: 9.0 mb/d

Iran hit UAE tankers. Houthis threatening Red Sea bypass.

Since inception: +18.5%

The model was early. Not wrong.

https://t.co/W6C6DGco29

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

HORMUZ UPDATE — July 10

The ceasefire collapsed.

US-Iran strikes resumed. Transit fell back to ~20/day. Southern corridor hit ZERO Jul 9. Three ships struck Jul 6-7.

Brent: $76.43 (+6% this week)

The model was early, not wrong.

https://t.co/W6C6DGco29

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

HORMUZ UPDATE — June 27

Brent: $71.99 — now BELOW pre-war levels.
42 vessels transited today despite Iran warnings.

But: a ship was struck by a projectile near Oman yesterday. IMO paused evacuations.

Market pricing full normalization.
The physics say otherwise.

https://t.co/qVtqotQtOt

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

HORMUZ UPDATE — June 24

31 vessels crossed yesterday. 20M barrels in 24hrs.
Brent: $75.57 — sliding toward pre-war levels.

Diplomatic track holding. But 80 mines remain.

Model expected $105-125. Market says otherwise.
We're recalibrating.

https://t.co/W6C6DGco29

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

HORMUZ UPDATE — June 23

37-42 vessels transited today — record since crisis.
200+ tankers waiting to exit the Gulf.
Rabobank cuts Brent to $79/$78.

But: 80 mines still in the main channel.

Brent: $76.72
Model: $105-125
Net shortage: 4.2 mb/d

https://t.co/W6C6DGco29

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

HORMUZ UPDATE — June 22

Swiss talks produced a 60-day roadmap overnight.
US Treasury issued Iran oil sales waiver.
IRGC re-closure was posturing — ships still moving.

But: 80 mines. 40-50 days to clear.

Brent: $79
Model: $110-130
Net shortage: 4.7 mb/d

https://t.co/W6C6DGco29

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

Since inception (Jun 17):

✅ Portfolio: +6.8% (355% APR)
✅ Outperforming Brent 5.2x
✅ Outperforming S&P 6.2x

If Brent hits our $120 target:
• ATM calls: +400-600%
• Deep OTM calls: +1,500-3,000%

Daily model at https://t.co/W6C6DGco29
Weekly strategy every Friday.

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

The oil crisis nobody's pricing in.

80 mines. Zero carriers. SPR at a 40-year low.

Brent: $80. Our model: $115-135.

Issue #1 called it: "The MOU Won't Hold."
48hrs later, Iran re-closed the strait.

Free issue → https://t.co/tOuVoumyvT

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

@Reuters Follow the latest from our supply model. Updated every day.

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

@business @Dan_Dicker Yes, we've been predicting this. Updated every day.

[Hormuz Weekly @HormuzWeekly]

https://t.co/sDLRJ898fW