Hot Chez Soup

“You didn’t come here to make the choice, you’ve already made it. You’re here to try to understand why you made it.” - The Oracle on #Bitcoin

[Ryan Sura @RyanSura18]

Brady and Matt Tkachuk in Florida next season

[Jeff O’Neill @odognine2]

Last night I got a FaceTime after dinner. Gavin asked if it was cool if he wore the number. I said “ it’s the only way to go son. LFG. “

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

MSTR Reality Check

Emotions are running high!

People are getting manipulated by all of the engagement farming FUD and for some reason think Saylor and Strategy are on the brink of some death spiral.

As per usual, these people don't do math. They just post a red chart with a doomer sentence for clicks.

If I remember correctly, MSTR survived 2022. Actually, I don't have to remember, because I can buy the stock today.

Let us compare it to the absolute depth of the 2022 bear compared to today.

On November 21, 2022, Strategy had 130,000 BTC.

Their outstanding debt (senior claims) was equivalent to 146,735 Bitcoin.

Yes, the amount of Bitcoin that MSTR shareholders were economically exposed to was NEGATIVE. -16,735 Bitcoin.

The senior claims left zero residual for the common stock, and yet the stock never went to zero. On that same day, the stock closed at $15.72. The common equity bitcoin exposure NAV per share was -$2.33.

Today, they have 847,363 Bitcoin, with senior claims in Bitcoin at ~351,567 BTC.

Yes, in 2022 the common equity was exposed to -16,735 BTC and now it is exposed to 495,796 BTC.

2022 common equity sats/share: −14,786 sats/share
2026 common equity sats/share: 138,146 sats/share

2022 common equity NAV per share: -$2.33
2026 common equity NAV per share: +$81.69

Yes, right now the stock is trading at $87.64 vs the NAV per share of $81.69.

That means the true CEBE mNAV is 1.07x, a 7% premium to the residual left over after senior claims.

Strategy has a balance sheet built for war.

This is a cake walk compared to 2022.

[Simon Dixon @SimonDixonTwitt]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Most important point in the reported 14-point deal, because it explains the rest:

The US and its allies would support reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.

That tells you almost everything you need to know.

Combined with sanctions relief, it helps explain why a deal could be reached in exchange for Iran and the GCC allowing the Financial Industrial Complex (FIC) to profit from normalization, reconstruction, investment flows, and regional integration, while simultaneously negotiating an exit from a Military Industrial Complex (MIC) forever-war framework with China & BRICS.

The rest was execution.

The on-again, off-again negotiations look less like failed diplomacy and more like checkpoints along a broader process.

There will be more checkpoints to come.

The war was not separate from the negotiations.

The war was part of the negotiations.

Israel was MIC bad cop.

US was FIC good cop.

IRGC was negotiation resistance.

If you’ve been following my work for years, you’ll know exactly why this matters and how it fits into the larger thesis I’ve been discussing since 2023.

And it’s no surprise that this happened today either.

SpaceX needs a pump.

The drama does not end here, but the direction will be the same in my opinion.

Follow the money.

See you on my live show tonight.

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

If you keep working 8-5 and saving in your 401k and making those contributions to your Roth IRA ... one day this could be you.

[Hot Chez Soup @HotChezSoup]

@Markconstant24 @TunedupToast @BurgerKing @SteaknShake is not affiliated with fat normie land though, @TunedupToast!

[Coots @YaBoyCoots]

Simon Gagne

That dude rocked

[Hot Chez Soup @HotChezSoup]

@worldhockeyrpt Si

[Barstool Philly @BarstoolPhilly]

PHILADELPHIA FUCKING FLYERS

[Hot Chez Soup @HotChezSoup]

@PrestonPysh That voice was made for the mic 🥲

[NBC Sports Philadelphia @NBCSPhilly]

tbh can't stop won't stop thinking about this Owen Tippett shift

[Paul Bissonnette @BizNasty2point0]

Porter Martone puts this one on ice. 3-1 Flyers. Top titty folks. Unbelievable effort from Philly in Game 1. They put the Penguins nuts in a vice. Game. Blouses.

[Hot Chez Soup @HotChezSoup]

@mccrystal_alex @jbrauck_ is this true?

[Philadelphia Flyers @NHLFlyers]

Uninvited. Unapologetic. Ignited. #IgniteTheOrange

[Flyers Media Information @FlyersMediaInfo]

The Flyers made the playoffs after sitting nine points out of the second Wild Card spot on March 10. Per NHLStats, Philadelphia became the first team in NHL history to make the playoffs after facing that large of a point deficit through 60 or more games played in a season.

[Paul Bissonnette @BizNasty2point0]

What a scene in Philly. What a push. The Flyers are playing playoff hockey. Incredible stuff.

[Ryan Whitney @ryanwhitney6]

The FLYERS! Tocchet deserves apologies ! What a win Vladar standing on his head and we get Pens Flyers in first round. Not one person predicted that pre season. What a story

[Zach Dunn @zachbdunn]

Officially starting a rumor that the dudes from Dave & Buster’s are the same as the dudes from Barnes & Noble. Dave Barnes and Buster Noble. Why not who fuckin cares

[Paul Bissonnette @BizNasty2point0]

Porter Martone wins it. Flyers are in a playoff spot. Martone’s first career goal puts the Flyers in a playoff spot. This is awesome.

[Jordie @jordiebarstool]

The hockey gods either desperately want the Flyers in the playoffs. Or the hockey gods want to kick Philly fans so hard in the dick on the final day of the season. It’s one or the other