Hot Hand Theory

An NBA pod hosted by @GeoffRasmussen_ & @xavierjdesigns
We use data + film study to analyze the game and explore ideas that challenge traditional bball wisdom

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

PSA:

We will be doing Finals game recaps with updated series overviews (breaking down tactics, theorizing potential counters, etc) for EVERY game in these NBA Finals.

Subscribe to our channel for all NBA content, we’re closing in on a huge milestone!

https://t.co/gOgW30HDuN

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@the_7thdayy You just have to live with KAT shooting over smaller defenders or Hart 3s to take away the rim. Shake their hand if they make them. You can’t sacrifice rim attempts to stop a KAT mismatch. You’re dead doing it that way. There are a litany of teams in the Knicks’ dust as evidence.

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

NBA Finals game 1 final thoughts:

-Karl-Anthony Towns was just the best player in a Finals game. Unbelievable
-Brutal Mitch Johnson loss. Kneecapping Wemby’s rim protection by putting him on Towns is indefensible. Losing THAT game when Brunson/OG/Mikal were subpar may haunt them

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@the_7thdayy Yes there are downsides and potential counters but I’m sorry the data is very clear. The Knicks torch every defense when you pull your rim protector from the paint to guard Towns. It’s even worse when you have arguably the greatest rim deterrent in NBA history.

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@michaelkasdan 👇👇👇

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@the_7thdayy If Wemby is waiting at the rim it doesn’t matter if Towns can abuse Champagnie or whoever is guarding him in a way Chet can’t. This also negates Brunson/Towns p&r’s because it makes switching easier. It’s imperfect and there are ways to counter but it’s the best way to guard IMO.

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@the_7thdayy If Wemby is waiting at the rim it doesn’t matter if Towns can abuse Champagnie or whoever is guarding him in a way Chet can’t. This also negates Brunson/Towns p&r’s because it makes switching easier. It’s imperfect and there are ways to counter but it’s the best way to guard IMO.

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@klotzian Sorry but I disagree. Obviously Mitch Johnson helped but Towns pulling Wemby from the paint was enormous and he did great despite that brutal/unexpected matchup

Then considering his defense…overall he was fantastic

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@UltiRad @GeoffRasmussen_ Totally agree. No clue why Harper didn’t close

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@GBThePinstripes Next day!

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

PSA:

We will be doing Finals game recaps with updated series overviews (breaking down tactics, theorizing potential counters, etc) for EVERY game in these NBA Finals.

Subscribe to our channel for all NBA content, we’re closing in on a huge milestone!

https://t.co/gOgW30HDuN

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@jresports0 No forgetting

We just spent lots of time discussing him on the postgame

Unfortunately limited characters on X and to me Towns+Mitch Johnson were the primary stories!

[Geoff Rasmussen @GeoffRasmussen_]

My theory: Arguably Wemby’s biggest area of weakness is lag time getting back on defense. The more the NYK can choose who he matches up against, the harder it will be for him to ghost. More scrams/pre-switches to get the matchups SA wants=more moving parts…or potential exploits.

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@Parkerbloom20 Haha to be clear I think Towns and Brunson are super close, both have the potential to be the best player (good problem to have!) but:

1) Towns has been their most impactful player through 3 series
2) The perception is VERY different

[Shax @ShaxNBA]

To put in perspective of how much San Antonio does not want to guard KAT with a big the last game illustrated that perfectly

One of the lowest amount of times a team has done it over the course of the season totaling only 2 half-court possessions

[Dan Devine @YourManDevine]

"To make it this far, you have to bring more to the table. And it’s great, because he can display to the entire world that he’s more than just a talented scorer."

At @YahooSports: I wrote about the best version of Karl-Anthony Towns we've ever seen. https://t.co/N2cuQ5A6NN

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@vrosjae @xavierjdesigns This is from a @LockedOnKnicks episode earlier in the season!

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is tonight. Wemby will do whatever he can to stay near the rim through heavy ghost coverage. @xavierjdesigns broke down 4 potential counters for the Knicks:

1) shoot aggressively
2) play Hart+Mitch together
3) up the tempo
4) use the ghost as a screener

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@BillW6251 @BryanGibberman @xavierjdesigns Of course it isn’t perfectly scientific, nothing will be across 14 games. But I disagree that correlation with a multi-season sample is meaningless

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

Towns has been the second best player in these playoffs and is closer to Wemby than he is to whoever is 3rd. Unsurprisingly, Towns’ peak impact has correlated with team dominance.

That’s why it’s ESSENTIAL for the Knicks’ chances to do anything so Towns can maintain this level.

[Wavy @wavytalkhoops]

We all know Wemby is unreal but look at KAT

We’re about to witness a battle between the two best bigs in the league

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@BryanGibberman @xavierjdesigns Ya OG has been absurdly great too

The Knicks are an awesome team when their roster is maximized, who knew?

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@BillW6251 @BryanGibberman @xavierjdesigns What is your contention here exactly? If it’s just “this is a small sample size” I’d agree. But this isn’t exactly the same as like Paolo shooting 45% from 3 in a 7 game series. The data is consistent with what it’s been telling us for two consecutive seasons!

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@BryanGibberman @xavierjdesigns EPM is per 100 (rate stat) but their expected wins is cumulative and he’s also 2nd in that despite playing 4 fewer games than any Spurs player 👀

Wemby is 2x the rest of the field in that 🤣

[Hot Hand Theory @HotHandTheory]

@YourManDevine Great stuff Dan!