HouseofSats

Bitcoin. Thoughts. Bitcoin Thoughts.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

Bitcoin EOY Note 2025

PRICE: Barring large movement in the last few trading days of the year, Bitcoin will finish 2025 down ~7%. It began the year around $93k, dipped from $100k to $75k late Jan to early April. After that it recovered, retaking $100K in early May. It then spent the summer at $110K +\- $5K. What appeared to be the much expected Q4 rally was cut short after a flash crash in the larger crypto market on Oct. 10. This sent price from a peak of $126K down to the $80Ks, where we remain today and will likely finish.

TAILWINDS: The Trump administration and its friends remain steadfastly in support. Lutnick is very publicly pro-Bitcoin. Bessent attended the opening of a Bitcoin bar/think tank in DC (Pubkey). Eric Trump leads a Bitcoin company (American Bitcoin). Traditional Finance is increasing its support. Vanguard now allows Bitcoin ETF trading after very publicly holding out. Schwab to introduce spot Bitcoin trading in H1 ‘26. BoA updated guidance to allow advisors to recommend a Bitcoin allocation of 1-4%. Larry Fink (Blackrock) praised Bitcoin at the NYT DealBook Summit and spoke of continued sovereign wealth fund buying despite the fall pullback. Digital asset market structure legislation (CLARITY) is making its way through Congress.

HEADWINDS: Strategy (MSTR) holds ~3% of Bitcoin supply. At least one index (MSCI) is considering removing the company, perceiving them as more of a fund than an operating company. Removal will result in passive outflows and increased downward pressure on MSTR price which would likely pull Bitcoin down with it. Various so-called Bitcoin/Digital Asset Treasury companies went public through SPACs, anticipating capitalizing on a big Q4 for Bitcoin and fared horribly; most notably NAKA ($25 to $0.38). Very damaging narratively, sustains the notion of Bitcoin as a scam and tool for insider opportunists.

REFLECTIONS: I was calling for $180K at EOY, obviously very incorrect. I was anticipating the positive developments described above to drive price, especially in Q4. Instead, the AI trade became the big story. Unexpectedly to me, gold and silver have gone on massive rips. I figured at this point dollar debasement concerns would be a boon for Bitcoin, not precious metals. Something I was watching closely was the notion of the 4-year Bitcoin cycle. Typically Bitcoin has three positive years, then one negative year. The negative year has typically been two years after the “halving” (the halving of the reward of Bitcoin to miners for mining a block, i.e., auditing the network). The most recent halving was in 2024. If that trend were to keep, 2025 would have been the third consecutive positive year. (‘23 was +155%, ‘24 was +121%). I was thinking the changes to the macro environment, namely increased tradfi buy-in, would break the 4-year cycle to the upside. I thought we’d have 4 positive years in a row. The 4-year cycle has still been broken but by the down year being pulled forward in time. It is possible that increased awareness of the 4-year cycle led traders to attempt to front run it, contributing to the Q4 pullback.

NEXT STEPS: The thesis remains the same: As the technologically best form of money we have, Bitcoin will an absorb an increasing share of global capital into its absolutely finite supply, resulting in a price of ~$13M in 2045. I will continue buying for the foreseeable future. In the short term, I think Bitcoin runs hard in 2026 to make up for its underperformance relative to equities and especially precious metals in 2025. However, who ultimately knows. The people who have made real money in Bitcoin have done so by buying in size and holding for years, not by trading short term price movements.

That's it for this year. 🙏🏾

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

No I understand Bitcoin quite well. But I also understand human nature, competence, and agency (or lack thereof). You think that just because inflation will get hot that all of a sudden people with zero financial literacy or technical savviness are going to buy Bitcoin, acquire hardware wallets, and start transacting peer-to-peer with it? By what year would you say even 20% of Americans would do this?

As inflation runs hotter, Bitcoin will certainly run. But most people (who are even savvy enough to attempt to protect themselves) will chase it by buying products such as IBIT, MSBT, and MSTR. When Bitcoin becomes large enough, countries will likely reach a Bretton Woods 2.0 style agreement establishing Bitcoin as the foundation of the global monetary system. Even in this scenario, individuals will by and large not be transacting spot Bitcoin peer-to-peer. They'll use dollars (pounds, euros) backed by a Bitcoin system as opaque to them as the current central banking system is to the layman today.

And you're being disingenuous idealogue if you think a product like STRC (assuming it remains solvent and functional) does not solve any problem.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

$BTC On the treasury company debate. In my opinion we have reached near-peak spot Bitcoin adoption. We now have had multiple reputable exchanges and simple wallets with intuitive user-interfaces for years. Even still, buying Bitcoin and moving it to cold storage is high-friction compared to pressing buy in a general brokerage account. As such, I don't think we will have meaningful additional onboarding of people using spot Bitcoin either as a currency or as long-term savings.

But won't people turn to spot Bitcoin because of inflation? No, they'll get slowly boiled alive while throwing their fiat after anything that looks like it can go up.

In my mind, most individuals will gain exposure to Bitcoin through financial products (e.g., IBIT, MSTR, MSBT). When Bitcoin runs again, individuals will largely chase it by buying these, not spot Bitcoin.

Eventually, Bitcoin may become so large that central banks begin buying it to back their currencies. Even in this scenario, people will be earning and spending dollars (pounds, euros) that, unbeknownst to them, are backed by Bitcoin held by their country's central bank.

Universal peer-to-peer use of spot Bitcoin is a fantasy.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

$BTC The institutional era began on January 11, 2024. Institutional integration continues at pace.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: $14 trillion BlackRock's Bitcoin Premium Income ETF is now trading live 👀

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

$BTC Not expecting dramatic price action during the summer. It’s still accumulation time.

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

If you denominate US GDP in gold instead of dollars, the chart is wild.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

The only major asset to flip this dynamic is Bitcoin. Institutional investors largely wouldn’t/couldn’t touch it until the institutional era began with the launch of IBIT in ‘24. For 15 years the ordinary person had first dibs at massive asymmetry. But they had to discover, buy, and hold. Few did.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

$BTC We lost $100K in mid November 2025. When will we retake it? Did you stack at sub-$100K levels?

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

@BTC_broo I won’t feel we’re out the woods until we spend weeks above $100K. Until then the concern should be accumulation.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

$BTC I’m pretty zen here. Was able to capitalize on the bear market to reach a major stacking goal and feel pretty confident that the worst of the pain is over. We’ll see what the latter half of the year holds.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

Everyone is better than Jalen Brunson until it’s time to be better than Jalen Brunson. Knicks-tape.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

The people who became millionaires from the SpaceX IPO held their equity for ~20 years often while grinding hard at the company. You’re telling me you can’t passively hold Bitcoin for more than 4 years?

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

@elonmusk @LorenaSGonzalez lol

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

@bourscheid “I just don’t get it.” Clearly, lol

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

The “progressive” mindset is so transparently envious and spiteful. The desire to help the poor is just pretext for cutting the successful down to size (but only those more successful than themselves). Genuinely could not imagine living that way.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

$BTC I bought heavily this month at prices in the 60s to reach a major stacking goal.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

Happy SpaceX IPO day to all who observe. $BTC

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

BREAKING: SpaceX reports they own 18,712 bitcoin worth more than $1.45 billion — SEC filing 👀

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

People need to understand the concept of a heuristic. When Saylor says “never sell your Bitcoin,” he means you’re a pleb who by happenstance has acquired a significant portion of the absolutely limited supply of what might become *the* capital asset of the 21st century—do not sell that to buy a watch or a car. It does not mean that Strategy, a public corporation with a treasury of 100s of thousands of Bitcoin, will not sell an infinitesimally small amount to pursue its corporate objectives.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

Elon Musk will become a trillionaire tomorrow with the SpaceX IPO. Narrow the wealth gap between you and Musk. Buy $BTC

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

Bitcoin is an equality engine. Let's say, in the U.S. dollar system, you have a net worth of $500,000. Pretty good. Around 73rd percentile U.S. wealth. Elon Musk (~$850B) has *1.7 Million* times your net worth.

Now let's say we're in a Bitcoin system. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. You're a whole coiner. In this system, Elon Musk--no matter how much wealthier he is than you--is not going to have 1.7M BTC. He's not going to be 1.7 million times richer than you and he's the richest person.

Now imagine a lesser billionaire, someone with let's say $5 billion dollars. That person is still *10,000* times richer than you at a $500,000 net worth.

Now in Bitcoin. Again you're a whole coiner. Very unlikely that the $5 billion dollar net worther is able to acquire 10,000 BTC for themself as the systems transition. They will no longer be 10,000 times wealthier than you.

Narrow the gap between yourself and the ultra rich. Buy Bitcoin.

[HouseofSats @HouseofSats]

@BitcoinTeacher_ At $1M a coin Bitcoin will have gained significant medium of exchange use, i.e., people will be using it as currency, exchanging it directly for goods and services instead of dollars. The larger it gets, the less volatile it will be.