Retail Investors, the Biggest Absentees of this Cycle
“We are seeing the rise of new whales, companies building treasury reserves, and addresses that accumulate without selling. All of this makes the current cycle structurally different from previous ones.” – By @Darkfost_Coc
It’s hard to convey intent and timeframe posting on X.
But from a high-level, beyond random chart posts, I like to think about everything through three main lenses:
1. The Earn - Income
Most traders believe they can trade their way to wealth.
I disagree. Income is the biggest driver, especially early on.
Maximize earnings from your profession.
Get promoted, change roles, start a side hustle or small business.
Build a steady stream before you chase multipliers.
2. The Multiply - Growth
Taking that steady stream of income and put it to work.
This is where you grow, through investing, trading, and some larger calculated risk.
Earned money becomes working money.
Learning through experience, this is the active money you're looking to grow. This is where you want to be broad in application. "There is a bull market somewhere" idea. Angle investing, trading/investing, business partnerships.
3. The Protect & Compound - Foundational
Periodically move or rebalance wealth from “Growth” into “Foundational.” Different timeframe, different mindset. You're not market timing, you're building the layer.
This is your true FU capital.
The layer you protect and let quietly compound, providing ultimate security.
Bitcoin. Gold. Blue-chips. Income assets. Real Estate.
Stable, reliable, generational wealth.
Every time capital flows into this layer, you're locking in a new level of wealth and security.
The goal is to flow wealth down into the Foundational. Think of it as a funnel, you want high flow in to have a better chance to multiply it and have enough to flow the way down.
For example, I could be selling a bunch of gold stocks or Bitcoin after a great 4yr Cycle run, but it will also mean stacking and adding to some of those same assets in the Foundational layer. This layer never sells (only rebalances).
Have a great win on a speculative coin, pay your foundational layer with a portion of the winnings, always.
This week is going to be action packed:
As the government shutdown nears day 30, the Fed will release their interest rate decision on Wednesday.
We will then hear from Fed Chair Powell in a highly anticipated statement amid the data blackout.
On top of this, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will all be reporting earnings.
That's earnings for $15.2 TRILLION in market cap worth of big tech stocks.
All while President Trump meets with China's President Xi on Thursday, 48 hours before his 100% tariff is set to go "live."
Buckle up for a wild week.
This is unusual:
~30 minutes before President Trump's tariff announcement yesterday, a "whale" took a multi-million dollar SHORT in Bitcoin.
1 hour later, crypto saw its largest ever liquidation and this position was liquidated for +$192 MILLION in profit.
Did someone know?
Tonight's price action summarized:
1. Japan's Stock Market: Record highs
2. Japan's 30Y Bond Yields: Record highs
3. Gold: Record highs
4. Bitcoin: Record highs
Central banks have lost control of long-term rates as economic stimulus ramps up into rising inflation.
Time for some facts $BTC
If you strip this cycle down to Bitcoin alone, the story is pretty simple: BTC rallied from $16K to $124K, a 700% move. On the chart alone, without looking at ETH or alts, most people would call this topped or close to topped. The only reason there’s hesitation now is because certain sectors have underperformed, which leaves bagholders clinging to the idea of "more upside."
This cycle has been very different from 2017 or even 2020. Back then, the 2019–2020 bubble was all about utility projects, staking plays, yield tokens, and DeFi protocols. That era birthed things like Aave, Compound, Uniswap, and the whole “money lego” movement.
This time? The spotlight has COMPLETELY shifted. The mania has revolved around memecoins on Solana. In other words "the trenches" as traders call it. Countless tokens have printed 50x–100x moves.
On top of that, early in the cycle we saw monster rallies from selective projects: Injective, Optimism, Arbitrum, and other L2s. And of course, the biggest headline act was Solana itself,exploding from $9 to $300.
So while this cycle feels “selective,” the truth is there’s been no shortage of opportunities. If you didn’t make money, it’s likely because you didn’t ride the narratives. The biggest difference this cycle is liquidity fragmentation. In past cycles, only a handful of new coins launched, so capital flowed into a concentrated set of assets, fueling mega rallies.
Today, thousands of new tokens hit the market every day, constantly draining liquidity from existing projects. Instead of capital concentrating on a few coins, it’s scattered across thousands, diluting gains and making it feel like nothing is pumping, even though opportunities are still there for those who rotate wisely.
The psychology here is important. A lot of people think: "My bags haven’t pumped, so the cycle isn’t over... BTC has to go way higher for my coins to catch up." But that’s not how it works. Bitcoin doesn’t have to go to $200K just so your illiquid alt finally wakes up. BTC already did its job.
At this point, BTC is showing late cycle behavior. Sure, if we can consolidate above $100K, maybe there’s an extra +10–15% left in the tank. But the bulk of the run is behind us. That doesn’t mean altcoins are finished though. Historically, alts often stage exit pumps even after BTC cools off, because capital rotates down the risk curve.
The bottom line:
This cycle wasn’t about broad based "everything pumps" like 2017-2020. It’s been about narrative surfing. Solana memes, selective L2s, and a handful of asymmetric trades. If you missed them, that’s not because Bitcoin “owes” you another leg to $200K. It’s because you didn’t pivot with the market.
The US government won’t be buying bitcoin, which means there’s more for all of us.
Don’t wait for others to improve your life.
Do it yourself, the best asset in history has your back.
President Trump just allowed 401(K)s to buy crypto.
Here are the numbers:
1. Total invested in 401(K)s: $9 trillion
2. Total market cap of crypto: $4 trillion
In other words, capital worth 2.25 TIMES the size of crypto can now access crypto.
We are still early.
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