John

Husband. Father. Teacher. Firefighter. At your service!

[John @HumanTide]

"Find out what the world is doing and do the opposite, and there you'll find success." --Micah Fink's dad

[John @HumanTide]

@atrupar Dumb Donny. Why do we vote for idiots?

[John @HumanTide]

@jakeshieldsajj War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Your Ignorance is Strength!

#Propaganda

[Rock'n Roll of All @rocknrollofall]

Watch how John Mayer turning a Pearl Jam classic into a songwriting masterclass.

[Eric Guzman @EGuzmanreports]

Today I’ll be covering the 2026 @MHSAA wrestling state finals at Ford Field.

[John @HumanTide]

@EGuzmanreports @MHSAA Please update us on Alpena’s Stenz in the girls at 125lbs.

[John @HumanTide]

@robprogressive How shall we pay for armies, roads, and bridges?

[John @HumanTide]

@BBCRosAtkins Disappointed in official statements that don’t match up with this report.

[John @HumanTide]

@ktumulty Profound. I love this.

[John @HumanTide]

Profound.

[Karen Tumulty @ktumulty]

My late cousin, who I adored and miss every day, once said to me: Never make fun of someone for mispronouncing a word. It means they learned it by reading.

[John @HumanTide]

@SenDuckworth JD Vance has turned into a caricature.
#grotesque

[Tammy Duckworth @SenDuckworth]

Forrest Gump ran toward danger in Vietnam. Your boss ran to his podiatrist crying bone spurs.

Petty insults at the expense of people with disabilities won't change the fact that you're risking troops' lives to boost Chevron's stock price.

It's my job to hold you accountable.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

I JUST CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S VENEZUELA OIL PLAN

And there's a huge problem.

Everyone's expecting Venezuela to pump 3M+ barrels per day and crash oil prices.

But here's what nobody's talking about:

The infrastructure is DEAD.

30 years of socialist mismanagement destroyed everything.

PDVSA (Venezuela's state oil company) went from world-class operator to complete disaster.

Refineries are rusting. Pipelines are leaking. Equipment is ancient.

The realistic cost to fix it? $100-180 BILLION over 10-15 years.

Nobody has that kind of money.

Especially not for a country that just stole billions from foreign investors.

The Exxon Problem:

Venezuela owes $60 billion in unpaid arbitration awards.

Exxon, ConocoPhillips, and others got their assets seized in 2007.

They won in international court. Venezuela never paid.

Now Trump's calling oil execs saying "invest in Venezuela."

Their response: "Show us rule of law first."

Translation: We're not putting billions into a country that might nationalize us again.

The Chevron Reality Check:

Chevron's the ONLY major still there.

They're operating under special US license.

Best case scenario with their current setup? Add 200-500k barrels per day.

That brings Venezuela from 900k bpd to maybe 1.1-1.5M bpd.

Still 50% below their historical peak.

And that's the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

The Orinoco Problem:

Venezuela's oil is heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt.

It's thick, sulfurous, expensive to extract.

Needs special refineries to process.

At current oil prices, the margins are horrible.

Why would any company invest billions for 8-12% returns when they can get 15-20% in US shale?

They wouldn't.

And here's the part that kills me:

Trump keeps saying he wants $50 oil.

But $50 oil DESTROYS the investment case for Venezuelan production.

You can't spend $180 billion rebuilding infrastructure if oil prices are suppressed.

The economics don't work.

So either:

1. Oil stays at $50 and nobody invests in Venezuela
2. Oil rises to $80+ and Venezuela becomes viable but prices don't crash anyway

Trump can't have both.

So even IF someone could rebuild the infrastructure...

Venezuela's political situation is still a mess.

Maduro's supposedly leaving. But to who? Maria Corina Machado? Another strongman?

Nobody knows what the government will look like in 12 months.

Major oil companies don't invest billions into that level of uncertainty.

They need 10-year stability guarantees.

Venezuela can't provide that.

The US Shale Comparison:

Meanwhile, Trump's threatening to cut oil prices.

US rig count is already falling.

Shale producers are pulling back on new drilling.

If you artificially suppress oil prices, you REDUCE future supply.

Not just in Venezuela. Everywhere.

Low prices = less investment = tighter supply later.

It's basic economics.

The Realistic Timeline:

Absolute best case with Chevron's existing operations:

- 18-24 months to add 200-500k bpd
- Total Venezuelan production hits 1.1-1.5M bpd
- Still nowhere near the 3M bpd everyone's expecting

That's not a game-changer for global oil markets.

My Take on Energy Stocks:

I don’t see much downside in oil prices from here (geopolitics providing a floor), and I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle.

But Trump's $50 oil talk is exactly that - talk.

The gap between political promises and physical reality has never been wider.

You can't tweet oil fields into existence.

You can't executive order decades of infrastructure neglect away.

And you definitely can't rebuild a collapsed petro-state while simultaneously crashing the price of its only export.

Energy reality > political promises

Every. Single. Time.

[John @HumanTide]

@tedlieu @JDVance Ted, I wondered how to respond to his question. Nice reply.

[John @HumanTide]

From NPR. A reminder that social media sucks. AI and social media… a dangerous combination.

[John @HumanTide]

@RobertMSterling I’ve never voted for Trump and never will, but I do respect this.

(I don’t respect the lies that come out of his mouth, however.)

[John @HumanTide]

@mattmfm Time for a national discussion about how we enforce immigration violations.

[John @HumanTide]

@jeremykauffman My guess is you are not a Christian.

[John @HumanTide]

@davidsenra 100% support capitalism. Also, clearly see a widening gap between the wealthy and the commoners. Interested in the shared prosperity and how to increase that.

[John @HumanTide]

@EndTribalism This is a pretty insightful post. I agree with your action items: ICE pull back, call for calm and non-violence, and investigate the incident thoroughly.

[John @HumanTide]

It is important to know the difference between a protest and a riot.