The performance of our Trend Asset Allocation Model has been updated to 29-Sep-2025
1 year: Model 12.7% vs. 60/40 12.9%
2 years: Model 20.4% vs. 60/40 17.9%
3 years: Model 16.9% vs. 60/40 15.3%
5 years: Model 10.9% vs. 60/40 8.8%
https://t.co/BUC54teHOa
Retired but still here: I wrote about IPOs as an indicator of risk appetite at my monthly column in the Fred Report (see link in my profile). Non-subscribers can get a reduced trial subscription rate using the code CAMTRIAL.
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
An analysis of the relative performance of the top 5 sectors by $SPX weight shows that leadership is narrowly led by technology
President Trump and @JDVance are pursuing a serious, responsible path out of the Persian Gulf conflict.
Anyone gloating or engaging in political point-scoring right now is marking himself as an enemy of peace.
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
In the face of #Hormuz related macro headwinds, how much staying power can a risk-on rally have if cyclicals are weak?
Asking for a friend.
4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Bond market indicators are screaming TACO, but stock market indicators are less certain. Complicating it all, #Iran is driving up the price of a Trump TACO.
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Ppl got all excited about the reported rush into equities, as reported by the BoA Global Fund Manager Survey, but subsequent returns have been hit and miss. History points to FOMO stampedes but do you really trust a n=4 #study?
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Dashboard: Virtually all equity indices are testing overhead resistance. The best performer is *suprise* the equal-weighted $SPX
Reporter: Are you attending your son’s wedding?
Trump: He’d like me to go. I’m going to try. I said, this is not good timing for me. I have a thing called Iran and other things. He’s a person I’ve known for a long time.
5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Fed Chair Warsh: Let me introduce you to your new friend, inflation expectations (thought the 10s30s yield curve isn't steepening)
3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
As Trump visited China:
$SPX and $NDX were the leadership
DM (Japan, Europe) were weak
#China was weak
EM ex-China was roaring ahead
2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
A glass half full or empty?
$SPX A-D Line made an ATH in April, NYSE A-D ATH in May
But exhibiting negative divergences with $SPX advance
1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
An unusual downside gap for $SPY
How quickly it gets filled will be an indicator of whether the bulls or bears have control of the tape