h0unter

Aspire to be less wrong. -Elon

[h0unter @Hursher]

@astronomer_zero UID dm'd. Thanks!

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

Full Crypto Cycle Altcoin Outlook

Why your altcoins haven't pumped yet and why I keep comparing this cycle to 2017 (full analysis)

"But Astro, what about altcoins, why are they not going up yet, when will they move, I don't understand"

The most frequent question I receive, by a thousand miles far, period. Especially lately since I have been focusing on $BTC, after booking our initial gains on the first (rather small) push of classic alts, and why I have been preaching extended altcoin chop around now.

So almost every post, at least one person asks about altcoins, worried about their bags, which ones to buy and, "when do they go up?". "Has the state of the market ruined my alts?" Funny because even big influencers start to worry or shame altcoin bags just because even bodies up to the size of governments are now pump and dumping altcoins.

And my answers to all of that is always the same: that first of all news is misinterpreted, misconstrued and designed to play with your emotions.

And secondly that "this cycle is a lot more like 2017, not 2021." And exactly that explains why there is some impatience out there, people being worn out as altcoins would have moved October/Nov last year already if this cycle was anything close to 2021.

But both for $BTC, $ETH and all the altcoins (and per consequence, $BTC.D) all have been moving different than last cycle since the start. And here I'll explain with clear examples once again why, to increase your understanding some more and help your patience and conviction.

I'll be giving a breakdown of the numbers first, then apply some logic (why would today be the same as 2017) and then my conclusion.

The breakdown

So, to properly understand when and what moved in 2017, and why they are identical, we start with the leader, as $BTC has already shown a lot of its hand.

And with regards to $BTC. It's clear. $BTC's 2017 playbook was to range (i), put in a big move (ii) and pullback drastically back to the parabola (iii), doing that multiple times, each time at a higher price, where at the same time in (iii), all (especially altcoin full retraces) hopium is lost very fast, yet $BTC keeps its high price, and keeping it's parabolic advance.

Sound familiar with today?

This gradual step-stone cycle approach is defly not familiar with 2021 where it was all about catching moves as fast as you can as $BTC and alts went up-only for months, and then remained silent for forever (a full year almost) and then they pushed hard again, two waves, and done.

I drew both parabolic advances on both $BTC charts of 2017 and today. Note that it's not possible to draw this parabolic advance out so cleanly on the 2021 chart, because the rise was not as stepstone and gradual, as just explained.

Arguably, the 2023 parabolic advance is slightly less clean than the 2017 one. But by no comparison is the 2021 cycle following any type of parabolic advance.

And in terms of altcoins, the type of movement was no different either.

In 2017, alts remained almost flatlined, all the way until the Final year March-November period.

Below, I selected 4 very iconic altcoins at the time. $ADA, $DOGE, $LTC and $IOTA.

There are far more altcoins, but they surely were big drivers of the market and more than enough to explain what I mean.

And from each of their charts, it's clear to when, where and how they moved:

$DOGE: Ground Level -> 18x (March '17)
$ADA: Genesis -> 130x (Nov '17)
$LTC: Ground Level -> 800x (March '17)
$IOTA: Ground Level -> 110x (Oct '17)

So they all stayed flat until at least March '17 (the final year i.e. comparable to 2025): $ADA was listed in masses in Nov and went up with the market, and $IOTA stayed flat until at least October.

This is different to 2021, where most of the altcoins went up already in August - Feb starting in the second to last year (2020), only to crash very hard once (70% in a few weeks) in the last year (summer 2021), which is where the major difficulty of that cycle was.

In this cycle, the major difficulty is the wait a priori (right now).

So again, clear resemblances of 2017, not 2021, yet there is still disappointment to why alts have not gone up yet.

Finally, let's talk about $BTC.D and $ETH, why it has been tricky to analyze and why $ETH has been seemingly 'disappointing' too.

The case with $BTC.D is that many expected the first $BTC.D drop to be sharp and straight to 40%-30%, because that is what it did in 2021.

But again, in 2017, we had a rather slow decline (coming off of 100% at the time), into a stubborn lower high retest, and then the real drop (only late in March during the final year).

This is another reason - next to all the reasons given of the analysis of our $BTC.D charts - why I called the top on $BTC.D, but expected a lower high retest (hence why we went risk off on the 10k altcoin challenge account to protect our 6k profits, yes I still continue them). I was wrong with the lower high, instead it became a higher high. All good, I accepted it.

But the point is that this gradual descent is far different than the double top of the 2021 cycle, where the second drop happened far earlier (Jan final year).

That is because $ETH rose gradually in 2017, causing some other alts to move (risk on mentality) early on, but not all too much, and only later, it too exploded fast, just like all the other alts. Not what happened in 2021.

Logic

So, numbers are very clear and speak for themselves, now some logic. Why would we move more like 2017, not 2021?

I think firstly, because most people position or try to outsmart the market thinking that the most recent cycle will repeat exactly (short term memory fallacy). So the market outsmarts the ones trying to outsmart the market and moves more like 2017 instead. We had a similar type of experience during 2021, where it moved like 2014 and everyone was expecting a repetition of 2017 (this happened in far less obvious ways, but still..)

Secondly, both the 2017 and this cycle have been defined by mass adaption, a lot more than the 2021. Just my opinion, but the 2021 cycle IMO was just an extension of the retail adoption of 2017, with more retail coming in (not really institutions or countries yet aside from one on $BTC and maybe some institutions on $ETH). Now, with the ETF's and Trump for president, we see another cycle of extreme adoption again (just like 2017), this time, from the governmental and institutional side (Trump for president helped, but it was inevitable regardless IMO).

So both very reasonable arguments to why this cycle is like 2017.

Conclusion

Most important sections is this: the take-aways from these observations. First is the obvious, and that's to still be patient and still have healthy expectations for altcoins to go up. And by that I mean, classic, somewhat useful altcoins with a purpose.

You know, those teams that try to actually build something with a unique mechanic or entire ecosystem, in an attempt to change the world. Ever heard of those coins? Yeah, they are all around.

I know it has been a lot of PvP so far and just extract money P&D and memes, useless stuff that dies in less than half a year (2017 was no different, just on different scales), only a few utility sectors like AI or RWA have somewhat taken off so far. But there are real projects (AI and RWA included, not memes) out there and although they do not seem as useful yet, they build towards that and people love to speculate on that side of the market, even more so when altcoin season arrives.

So personally I am largely (not exclusively) invested in those.

As a final note, this is a historical analysis. I am not saying that history repeats exactly, and neither will this cycle be exactly like 2017 (just look at the $BTC.D higher high we had now and lower high we had in 2017). Also that, would be far too easy. That is why we carefully and deeply analyze the markets at all times and position accordingly. But this post should help you put you on the right track, understand the rough lines of how things are going. And at least get you off the short term memory mindset of falsely just looking at the most recent past. A good lesson to carry over for the rest of your trading/investing lifetime.

[h0unter @Hursher]

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[h0unter @Hursher]

@Community_Sui 0xe3ed19415e2a5b37a7a465f8b68e6c46feec83c2e0f62b38af4f23521f42968d

[h0unter @Hursher]

Gm. Woke up to a green market and an Oldscoolie in my perawallet thanks to @AlgOctopus. Feeling blessed. The future is bright.

[h0unter @Hursher]

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[Jorge 🦮 @Jorge_algo]

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[h0unter @Hursher]

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[minner @MinnerAlgo]

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[Leonidas 🧡 $DOG @LeonidasNFT]

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[h0unter @Hursher]

@cosmostudioalgo

[cosmo 🇺🇸 @cosuimo]

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[h0unter @Hursher]

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[Folks Finance @FolksFinance]

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[Fuck @Fuckalg0]

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[h0unter @Hursher]

@antlazarus @mellamobenitwo Takes Balls to fill up that $BALLSACK

[Anthony Lazarus @antlazarus]

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[h0unter @Hursher]

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[h0unter @Hursher]

@yomomo91 @woopalgo