Everyone is freaking out about rising government bond yields...except for the stock market
Rising yields on 30 year govt bonds and rising stock prices in both Japan and the US
What if bond yields are just normalizing for a higher growth/inflation world?
@Mr_Derivatives There really is no reason for fear in the markets and I think most people are missing that in their bear thesis. Rates at these levels are ok
It's like clockwork.
The 10Y Note Yield is now above 4.50% for the first time since June 2025.
This is the same level that resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.
Meanwhile, rate HIKES are now the base case for the Fed's expected next move.
As a result, average rate on 30Y mortgage in the US is nearing 7% and inflation is at a fresh 3-year high.
Seemingly overnight, "higher for longer" interest rate policy is back.
How long can this last?
I have deep respect for the Krebs cycle, the Golgi apparatus and the structure of tRNA but honestly these things belong more on a college biochem or cell bio test than on Step exams to determine whether to license a doctor to practice medicine in the US. I’d much rather have future physicians memorizing the five major social determinants of health or the nutrition content of common foods.