You not selling a winning trade for profit because you are afraid it may go higher is a form of “fomo”...
You will never lose if you always sell for profit. Remember this. Greed will ruin your flow.
Trade for profit, not for love.
Here's a good model to look for if you want to take a bullish FVG. (Same goes for bearish but opposite):
Liquidity purged(Could be PDH, PDL, EQH, EQL)
Strong displacement over lower high (w volume)
FVG in discount
Buyside above (buy model or EQH above)
FINAL COMMON MISTAKE. Longing fair value gaps in premium and shorting fair value gaps in discount.
For you advanced ICT guys, I get this works, but has to be right scenario. Newer guys, don't do it. You will have better RR longing FVGs in discount than you will in premium.
@aw_trades_@ApexTradeFund What is your opinion on this. how can be traders confident since after 1st payout (not max 6) as you claim for your new accounts traders are being moved to live?
@jadecap_ hey Jade. What is your opinion on this. I get your daily emails and I know you like Apex and all but how can be traders confident since after 1st payout (not max 6) as they claim for their new accounts traders are being moved to live.
got approved for my BIGGEST PAYOUT ever last friday on apex - first payout on 19 funded accounts for $28.5k
just found out today they moved me to their live program after that one payout. trying to figure out what this means lol and if I'll even get that money
if you've been moved live, how long did it take to hear anything? feels like a black box after seeing others way for a long time
How a $4M poker champion turned every decision you make into a bet — and why that changes everything
Annie Duke, Ph.D. (@AnnieDuke — WSOP bracelet winner, $4M in tournament winnings, national bestselling author of Thinking in Bets, Special Partner @ First Round Capital, PhD in Cognitive Psychology from Penn)
"A good bet is one that carries positive expectancy. What a good bet is NOT — is one that wins."
We cover:
- Why every decision you've ever made is a bet (even ordering off a menu)
- The green light vs. red light rule for separating outcomes from decisions
- How to build an EV calculation for something as messy as choosing a career
- Why loss aversion is secretly an uncertainty problem — and how great risk takers solve it
- When to trust your gut vs. when gut feel is just bias in disguise
- The pre-mortem framework — how to find your blind spots before it's too late
- Mental time travel: the parenting tool Annie uses to raise better decision-makers
- How she explained luck, hard work & probability to her 4 kids at the dinner table
Thanks for making time, Annie. Been a fan of yours for a while.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:12 Defining bets as resource allocation under uncertainty
04:52 Positive expectancy vs. outcome-based evaluation
06:11 Resulting: Why outcomes are not proxies for decision quality
15:19 Calculating expected value in high-variance career paths
18:55 Moving from implicit intuition to explicit decision modeling
24:27 Using base rates and reference classes for startups
30:26 Psychological traits of elite risk takers and traders
31:33 How prospect theory and loss aversion distort risk
45:12 Deconstructing gut feel and the role of intuition
49:36 Evaluating optionality and impact in fast-moving environments
57:13 Mental time travel: Tools for managing temporal discounting
01:01:31 Quantifying the intersection of luck and hard work
01:04:43 Internalizing a probabilistic worldview for long-term edge
@jadecap_ Hi. Older dad of two. Always look up to accomplished traders and always learn a lot. Honest question, why do you and many accomplished traders in general even waste time on social media? Why not just trade rather than even waste a second of your life here?
I can sum up 90% of losing traders.
Addicted to education.
Allergic to execution.
All you do is consume consume consume.
And always asking the wrong questions, is this person real or fake, does the strategy work, do you have a real broker statement.. blah blah blah.
The only thing that will improve your trading is taking trades and learning from your mistakes.
Watching other people trade just makes you a spectator.
Trading is a bit of a paradox.
The harder you PUSH, the further success runs from you.
Learning to enter flow state.. trading with the market, instead of against it.. can be the greatest edge.
Stop getting angry over failed trades.
Stop betting on certainty.
Start to learn to roll with the punches.
Outliers do Outlier Things
This is one of favorite phrases and pairs nicely with the concept of Gradually then Suddenly.
If we want to be an exceptional person or have exceptional results, we MUST do the hard things required and be consistent in doing those things so that we can look back and say I got here gradually (by stacking days of choosing the path we know we must take) to then look back and it feels like you have suddenly leveled up.
Choose the hard things! Be an outlier!
https://t.co/QvSm04rrpO
The main rules you need to be aware of.
Many people get notified of the rule break from
30% Negative P&L Rule (MAE)
Basically, don't lose more than 30% of your whole account in one singular trade.
Again, it happens. If you did break any of the rules, you simply need to trade another 8 days to be able to request payout again.
It’s usually the trades where you were impatient that cost you the most.
How many times, if you had waited just one more hour, would you have found an “easy” setup?
got a DM from a guy who said he made $1.2M trading last year
looked at his profile. 847 followers. no course. no discord. posts maybe twice a week.
thought it was cap
asked him to prove it
he sent broker statements. verified. real.
so I asked him one question: "what's your strategy?"
his answer changed how I think about trading forever.
"I trade one pattern. literally one. for 9 years."
"just one?"
"just one. bullish engulfing at daily support. that's it."
"you made $1.2M from bullish engulfings?"
"I made $1.2M from being the most patient motherfucker on planet earth."
he explained:
when he started, he was like everyone else. 47 indicators. 12 strategies. telegram signals. news trading. scalping. swing. everything.
blew $340k in 4 years.
his wife told him he was done. trading was over. get a real job.
"that's when I got serious."
he spent 6 months backtesting ONE setup. bullish engulfing at daily support. over 3 years of data. (i don't even know how the fuck support/resistance work lmao)
found it hit 61% of the time with average 2.8R when traded correctly.
"that was enough. I didn't need anything else."
now he wakes up. checks daily charts for 15 minutes. if the setup is there, he takes it. if not, he plays golf.
"some weeks I take zero trades."
"doesn't that drive you crazy?"
"it drove me crazy for the first 6 months. now I don't even think about it. no setup = no trade. the market owes me nothing."
I asked about his typical month:
- trades: 8-12
- winners: 5-7
- losers: 3-5
- average month: $70-120k
"you make six figures taking 10 trades a month?"
"bro most months I make more than I made the entire year when I was taking 10 trades a day."
this broke something in my brain.
we've been told MORE effort = MORE results
but trading is inverted
LESS effort = MORE results
because effort in trading usually means:
- more trades (more mistakes)
- more screen time (more emotional decisions)
- more analysis (more paralysis)
- more indicators (more confusion)
he told me his screen time went from 8 hours per day to 45 minutes per week.
his income went from -$80k/year to +$1.2M/year.
inverse correlation
I asked for his advice to new traders:
"pick one setup. test it. prove it works. then do ONLY that setup for 3 years. you'll be rich and everyone will think you're a genius. you're not. you're just patient."
before I ended the call:
"one more thing. everyone who tells you trading is hard is right. but not because the market is hard. because DOING NOTHING is hard. that's the actual skill. doing nothing while everyone else is busy losing money."
he hung up.
probably went to go do nothing.
Multi baggers are built through bases 🔄
Strong trends form consolidation zones, break out, then repeat as long as EMAs hold 🚀
Ride the structure, not the noise, and let the trend do the heavy lifting 📈
@ripster47 | @tenet_research | @TenetCharts
Trading is a solo endeavor.
Stop putting so much energy into learning strategy.
The edge is the trader.
You can give the same strategy to two traders and get wildly different results.
You’re the one pulling the trigger and making decisions at the end of the day.
Unless you find the guy that has a 500 profit factor.
That strategy is the holy grail.
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