ICIS NBP

The latest from the London NBP gas team of Kaja & Rob

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

Market research time

I have...

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

Rough is back!

Following its secondment as a #natgas field, the asset has returned to its previous role as a storage site.

National Grid data shows British storage capacity has grown nearly 0.8mcm to 2.3bcm.

The jump on 13/09 to more than 4bcm (!) may have been an error

#ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

European #natgas stock building ticking along nicely even with some chilly weather and restricted Norwegian supply.

On track to peak ABOVE the historic average but all eyes on the weather now...

#ONGT #TTF

[Tom Marzec-Manser @tmarzecmanser]

#Gazprom produced 12.6bcm of #natgas in the first two-weeks of September, a drop of 38% drop year on year. #ONGT #TTF

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

European #natgas demand has began September down towards the bottom of the historic range.

With some cooler temperatures on the way, will we soon get an indication as to how price-responsive residential demand might be this winter?

#ONGT #TTF

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

European #natgas stock refilling trends above average, pushing the total above the seasonal norm.

A continuation would put stocks at their average annual peak (85.4bcm) before end of the September - about a month early.

Weather will start to play a larger role however...
#ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

European #natgas demand continues to trend below average.

Year to date Europe has burned nearly 12.5bcm less than average, following a similar trend would result in a near 18bcm drop over the whole year (although this would require Q4 to be as warm as Q1 was).

#ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

European #natgas stock building holds steady through August - stored gas 1bcm above the historic average and nearly 3bcm above their 2021 peak - with more injections to come

Upcoming NS1 shutdown will make a tiny dent in the grand scheme. Later Gassco work more significant #ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

Back from a working week in Singapore then a mini break in Thailand.

Meanwhile, European #natgas stocks have inched to their biggest increase over average this year - only 0.7bcm up though.

Total commercial stocks at 68.5bcm

#ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

My best guess as to the what each NS1 turbine is up to and why - according to #Gazprom

Largely based on recent comments from Vitaly Markelov.

I assume the last turbine running is number 071 - could be wrong.

#ONGT #natgas

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

NS1 flows dropping to 33mcm/day in on 27th July

Vlad did warn us...

#natgas #ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

Hard to tell on the graph, but European #natgas stocks have edged below average...just. Although as of Sunday we are only 20mcm down (essentially flat).

Nation states are really ramping up their storage procurement, with Germany's new 95% by November target the most significant.

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

. @GazpromEN still claiming unresolved issues around delivery of turbines - needed to push Nord Stream flows back up to previous levels.

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

Not quite this, but National Grid want to provide BBL with +8mcm/d export cap before THIS WINTER. Currently can do about 16mcm/d

https://t.co/EGc8Vr4Y9A

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

They've actually gone and done it.

#RoughReturn

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

European #natgas unmoved by the recent heat - much more impact on power margins.

Industrial demand destruction and likely near-zero heating demand keeping overall consumption below normal.

#ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

Strong #natgas injections elsewhere in Europe continue to compensate for withdrawals in Germany - hardest hit by the NS1 shutdown.

#ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

yes Germany is withdrawing but total #natgas injection rates on a Europe-wide level remain very much in line with recent years (2020 is the outlier because sites were already nearly full up)

(graph is net withdrawals in mcm, so negative value indicates injections)

#ONGT

[Tom Marzec-Manser @tmarzecmanser]

EU+UK LNG imports slide to 8.7mt in June, @ICISOfficial data show.
Spain holds as the main importing nation. US the main supplier. Russia LNG still delivering around 1mt/month.
#LNG #natgas #TTF #ONGT

[Thomas Rodgers @TomLRodgers]

European #natgas demand year to date is down 9.4bcm, or 4%, compared to average.

Down a huge 29.7bcm, or 11.6% compared to last year - when we had a long, cold winter.