International Centre for Strategic Intelligence

A joint venture by members of the global #OSINT community.
Director @DefenceGeek.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

Our assessment remains largely unchanged. We have witnessed a series of cyber attacks against #Ukraine and firefights have broken out on the line of conatct throughout today as Russia evacuates civilians into Russian territory.

Invasion is now imminent.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Ukraine
In light of multiple countries ordering their citizens to evacuate Ukraine immediately, and the announcement tonight that US intel believes Russia will invade in the coming week, we are now moving to our highest alert level: Code Black, for Ukraine.

[DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 @DefenceGeek]

**OPINION THREAD** #Ukraine #Russia
I'm off on night shift soonish so thought I'd get my opinion in beforehand. If Russia is going to launch an attack in Ukraine, I believe it will start during my shift tonight...
(1/9)

[Kyle Glen @KyleJGlen]

Difficult to understand how heavy the fighting has been in eastern Ukraine today until you compare it to the rest of the year so far.

The Ukrainian MoD reported more ceasefire violations today than they did for all of January.

[Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko]

The whole of 🇺🇦Ukraine’s armed forces is on full combat alert tonight.
If the worst is to happen (even though I still don’t think it will), this is going to be our finest hour.
Goodnight, Ukraine & the world.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Ukraine
In light of multiple countries ordering their citizens to evacuate Ukraine immediately, and the announcement tonight that US intel believes Russia will invade in the coming week, we are now moving to our highest alert level: Code Black, for Ukraine.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

ICSI also notes the immediate evacuation orders from national governments today to the citizens of the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Norway, Israel and the Netherlands.
(3/3)

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Ukraine
In light of multiple countries ordering their citizens to evacuate Ukraine immediately, and the announcement tonight that US intel believes Russia will invade in the coming week, we are now moving to our highest alert level: Code Black, for Ukraine.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

@DefenceGeek @ConflictsWW @KyleJGlen @IdeologyWars @Ukraine @NATO @StateDept @DefenceHQ ICSI believes that a Russian invasion of Ukraine will begin sometime between Sunday 13th February 2022 and Saturday 19th February 2022, based on the available Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the latest assessment from the US Intelligence Community.
(2/3)

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

Russian NOTAM covering dates from 13th to 19th February 2022 will coincide with their amphibious assault ships arriving in the Black Sea, and will see the peak of Russian military equipment/personnel build-up.
#UkraineCrisis

[Liveuamap @Liveuamap]

Russia closing wide areas of Black Sea and almost whole Azov Sea for missile exercises. NOTAMs issued https://t.co/SrG7pAmEju via @AlexKhrebet

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

UPDATE: We remain at Code Red at this time.
Due to developments since our last travel advisory, we are now advising ALL foreign nationals in Ukraine to take steps to leave the country no later than Saturday 5th February 2022 as the risk to life is now being assessed HIGH+

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Ukraine
Following the breakdown of diplomatic talks between NATO and Russia, and in light of alarming intelligence of espionage plans and continued military build-up, we are upgrading our assessment. We believe major fighting is likely within 2 weeks.

[DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 @DefenceGeek]

The news we dreaded. As the @ICSI_OSINT team predicted, with a week still to go, the US has given #Russia a green light to go into #Ukraine.

#UkraineCrisis

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Ukraine
Following the breakdown of diplomatic talks between NATO and Russia, and in light of alarming intelligence of espionage plans and continued military build-up, we are upgrading our assessment. We believe major fighting is likely within 2 weeks.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Kazakhstan
We've reviewed the situation in Kazakhstan and deemed that the risk has significantly decreased from our last assessment. Risks still remain due to internal political actions and the presence of foreign troops, so we still advise against travel.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Ukraine
Following the breakdown of diplomatic talks between NATO and Russia, and in light of alarming intelligence of espionage plans and continued military build-up, we are upgrading our assessment. We believe major fighting is likely within 2 weeks.

[Evergreen Intel @vcdgf555]

This is the right decision.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Kazakhstan
Following a review this morning, we are upgrading to our maximum level, Code Black. This is due to a "shoot to kill" order issued by Kazakhstan's President to security forces, and the arrival of 2,000+ foreign troops to crush the protests.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Kazakhstan
Due to the current internal crisis in Kazakhstan, the imminent involvement of military forces from Russia and it's allies, and the reports of mass casualties among security forces and civilians, we are advising against all travel to the country.

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

At present, our assessment remains at Code Amber. We continue to monitor movements and statements from both sides.

[DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 @DefenceGeek]

#NATO #Ukraine #Russia #Belarus
👀Hotspot to watch for the forseeable future

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

The #US State Dept has upgraded it's travel warning to the highest level, Level 4 - "Do Not Travel" in regards to #Ukraine. We continue to monitor developments and will review our own Travel Advisory in the coming days.
https://t.co/bN6Nmxb500

[International Centre for Strategic Intelligence @ICSI_OSINT]

TRAVEL ADVISORY: #Ukraine
In light of more and more indications of imminent regional armed conflict due to a build-up of Russian, Belarusian and Ukrainian forces in border areas, we now advise against all but essential travel to the area due to a risk of rapid escalation.