IMRA

Updates from IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis - Israel

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Trump posts Lindsey Graham’s call to make it crystal clear that Israel will not have to tolerate being attacked

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Washington Announces: Hezbollah Missile Build Up OK – Don’t Shoot 60 Days
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 June, 2026

Apparently under the cease fire just announced which is based on the US-Iran MOU which unilaterally committed to a ceasefire in Lebanon, there is no restriction on a Hezbollah missile build up during the course of the ceasefire so long as Hezbollah waits for the 60 day MOU ceasefire to expire.

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@RJC @mbrooksrjc @normcoleman @WhiteHouse @POTUS Does RJC endorse President Trump’s position supporting ballistic missiles for Iran?

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Weekly Commentary: Netanyahu: Preserve Bond With America - No Withdrawal From Lebanon
Dr. Aaron Lerner 19 June 2026
https://t.co/nHG754g4EG

"True, the struggle is not yet over, and further challenges lie ahead. And these demand from us composure, a determined stance on our security interests, and at the same time, the preservation of our important bond with our American friends, who have fought alongside us shoulder to shoulder - and we appreciate that very much.

... we will restore security and prosperity to the communities of the North. This requires maintaining the security zone in southern Lebanon; it requires that we do not withdraw from there as long as Israel's security needs demand it. Because this zone is the barrier between Hezbollah terrorists and our citizens and communities"
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 18 June 2026

An important message from our prime minister as VP Vance openly threatens us and President Trump belittles our concerns.

Yes, says Netanyahu, the challenges we face demands "the preservation of our important bond with our American friends", but the preservation of that bond cannot be achieved by forfeiting our vital national interests.

And so, regardless of what the USA-Iran MOU may say, " security and prosperity to the communities of the North... requires maintaining the security zone in southern Lebanon... as long as Israel's security needs demand it."

And a piece of paper won't change this need.

Nor Lebanese troops or any combination of foreign observers. Been there. Done that. Everywhere we turn in Lebanon we find more large weapons stores despite all these arrangements to date.

At the end of the day, President Trump will be annoyed that, as a democracy, it would be political suicide for the Likud in general and Netanyahu in particular, for the IDF to retreat from Lebanon before our elections in the coming months.

But Mr. Trump will ultimately understand why, this time, we cannot forfeit our vital national interests simply because he unilaterally committed to a ceasefire in Lebanon.

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I thank Mr. Vance for the head’s up
that we should accelerate our programs of domestic weapons production even faster than we already planned for.

If a serious Republican candidate for president in the 2029 elections sees fit to threaten us about arms supplies then it’s do or die.

It’s also a warning against co-producing new weapons with American companies unless we have complete production lines in Israel so that we don’t risk being denied a critical part because someone isn’t happy.

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Esther 4:14 For if thou altogether holdest thy peace at this time, then shall there enlargement and deliverance arise to the Jews from another place; but thou and thy father's house shall be destroyed: and who knoweth whether thou art come to the kingdom for such a time as this?

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Headline from the JCPOA period - reminder that it failed to truly inspect
Iran: International Atomic Energy Agency barred from inspecting military sites
https://t.co/zqUH4NqUBT

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Behta on the move loaded with sodium perchlorate (for making rocket fuel) after sitting a month off of Shanghai

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Billions for Iran: President Trump unilaterally immediately drops blockade on Iranian ports - authorises Iran not to charge a toll!!!

The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP

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אתגר: טראמפ ושרון – משפחה לפני מדינה
ד״ר אהרן לרנר, 14 ביוני 2026
https://t.co/p8apJnbumd
אריאל שרון היה גאון צבאי בעל חשיבה חדה, שנסיונו האישי העמוק במערכת הביטחון העמיד אותו בעמדה יוצאת דופן: למרות דרגתו הבכירה, הוא היה תמיד מוכן לאתגר את הקונצנזוס של הממסד הביטחוני.
שרון פעל בעקביות מתוך אמונה עמוקה במה שהוא ראה כדבר הנכון לעשות למען האומה.
כך היה המצב עד שהוא חש כי הוא מחויב לבצע נסיגה חד-צדדית מרצועת עזה – כדי להציל את בני משפחתו מכלא.
שרון בחר במשפחה על פני המדינה.
נשיא טראמפ אולי אינו חולק את מערך הכישורים של שרון, אך בשנה האחרונה הוטבעה בו היטב המנטרה: ללא העשרה, ללא טילים – או ללא עסקה.
אולם עם התקרבות הבחירות האמצע, והסיכוי הממשי שרוב דמוקרטי בבית הנבחרים יהיה הדומינו הראשון שיוביל לתהליך שישלח אותו לכלא ואל אובדן הונה של משפחת טראמפ – גם נשיא טראמפ דוחף במרץ רב, במהלך נואש ששם את המשפחה לפני המדינה.
אני באמת לא יודע כיצד נצליח לצאת מהמצב הזה.
אני באמת לא יודע איזה שילוב של טכנולוגיות ובריתות יוכל לעמוד בלוח הזמנים שיאפשר לאיראן, לאחר חתימת העסקה הזו, להגיע לכמות עצומה של טילים בליסטיים ארוכי טווח ומשגרים – עד כדי כך שלא נוכל עוד להגן על עצמנו.
ולתוספת לאתגר: האיראנים קבעו את מועד ההשמדה שלנו ל-9 בספטמבר 2040 בלבד.
איראן סבלנית יכולה לבנות את הטילים הללו מבלי לשגר אותם במשך יותר מעשור נוסף, אם תבחר בכך.
חיזבאללה יכול לעשות בדיוק אותו הדבר במסגרת ההסדר של “שקט תמורת שקט”.
לכן, בעוד שלאיראן יהיו די טילים בליסטיים כדי להשמיד ביעילות את מדינתנו תוך מספר שנים, הם עלולים לבחור להמתין עד שאזהרותינו יאבדו כל אמינות – כאשר נלעג על כך ש”זעקנו זאב” שוב ושוב.
אני מאזין לפודקאסטים הן של דמוקרטים מהזרם המרכזי והן של גורמים בימין, וכשהם מדברים עלינו ברור לחלוטין כי אין דבר שבעולם שנוכל לעשות שירגיע אותם.
חתימה על עסקה עם הפלסטינים, אפילו חלוקת ירושלים ונסיגה ל”קווי אושוויץ” של הגבולות שלפני 1967 – לא תעשה את העבודה.
אני באמת לא יודע כיצד נצליח לצאת מהמצב הזה.
אבל דבר אחד אני כן יודע: ככל שנבלה פחות זמן בהאשמות הדדיות (תוך בחינת השפעתן על הבחירות לכנסת שלנו), ובמקום זאת נעבוד יחד, במאוחד, כדי להתמודד עם האתגר הקיומי הזה – כך יגדלו סיכויינו להצלחה.
כי הצלחה אינה מטרה פוליטית.
היא צורך קיומי.

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Challenge: Trump and Sharon - Family Before Country
Dr. Aaron Lerner 14 June 2026
https://t.co/p8apJnbumd

Ariel Sharon was a sharp military genius whose own experience in the system put him in the unusual position that, despite his rank, he was always open to challenging the defense establishment consensus.

Sharon consistently did what he thought was the right thing to do for the nation.

That was, until he felt compelled to unilaterally withdraw from the Gaza Strip to keep his family out of jail.

Sharon chose family over country.

President Trump may not share Sharon's skill set, but over the past year this mantra has been drilled into him: No enrichment, no missiles, or no deal.

But with the mid-term elections rapidly approaching and the real possibility that a Democrat majority in the House could be the first domino to fall in a process sending him to prison and the loss of the Trump family fortune, President Trump is also pushing hard in a desperate move which puts family over country.

I honestly don't know how we are going to get out of this.

I honestly don't know what combination of technologies and alliances can mee the timeline which takes Iran , after this deal is signed, to posses such a massive number of long range ballistic missiles and launchers that we can no longer defend ourselves.

And to add to the challenge: the Iranians only have the deadline for our destruction slated for 9 September, 2040.

A patient Iran can build up those missiles without launching them for more than another decade if they so choose.

Hezbollah can do the same within the "quiet for quiet" arrangement.

So while Iran will have enough ballistic missiles to effectively destroy our country in a few years, they might opt to wait until our warnings are stripped of any credibility as we are ridiculed for repeatedly "crying wolf".

I listen to some podcasts from what might be considered mainline Democrats as well as elements in the right and when they talk about us it is clear that there is nothing we can do will placate them.

Making a deal with the Palestinians, even dividing Jerusalem and retreating to the "Auschwitz lines" of the pre-1967 borders, won’t do the trick.

I honestly don't know how we are going to get out of this.

But I do know one thing: the less time we spend focused on assigning the blame (with an eye on how that might impact our own Knesset elections) and instead work, united, to meet this existential challenge, the greater our chances of success.

Because success isn't a political goal.

It is an existential need.

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Netanyahu (age 76) - No Iranian nukes while I am PM - Apres moi le deluge?
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 June 2026
https://t.co/0H4Q8nb9Ea

In the statement below, Prime Minister Netanyahu assures the Israeli public that the Iranians won't have nukes as long as he is prime minister.

Apres moi le deluge?

As prime minister, Mr. Netanyahu's responsibility is not only to stop Iran from having nukes while he is serving as prime minister but also to create the conditions - diplomatic, military and otherwise - that Iran doesn't have nukes when the day comes that someone else serves as Israel's prime minister.

Here are examples of how world leaders talk - notice "we" rather than "I":

Menachem Begin - 8 June 1981 after the strike on Iraq’s reactor
"On no account shall we permit an enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against the people of Israel.”

Ronald Reagan - 6 June 1984
"We will always remember. We will always be proud. We will always be prepared, so we will always be free."

Abraham Lincoln - 19 November 1863
“... that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

Winston Churchill - 4 June 1940
“… we shall never surrender.”

John F. Kennedy - 20 January 1961
“Let every nation know… that we shall pay any price, bear any burden… to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”

George W. Bush - 20 September 2001
“We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.”

==
Statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this afternoon (Friday, 12 June 2026) [translated from Hebrew]:
"As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel – Iran will not have nuclear weapons.
President Trump and I are in full agreement on this issue.
For over 30 years, I have been at the forefront of the international struggle against Iran's nuclear program.
Were it not for this struggle, Iran would have long ago possessed atomic bombs to destroy Israel.
Iran is working to destroy the Jewish state, and I am dedicating my life to preventing them from doing so.
As long as I am the Prime Minister of Israel, this will not happen."
________________________________________
IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations
Website: https://t.co/PibxBrzXr0

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Weekly Commentary: Israel Needs To Plan For Possible Trump Impeachment Window
Dr. Aaron Lerner 11 June 2026
https://t.co/BntV8pV5QQ

It would appear that Mr. Trump is going to reward Iran with the opportunity to make billions in oil sales (and possibly enjoy the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets ) in return for graciously agreeing to have President Trump kick the "deal ball" down the road for sixty days.

So let's look beyond this 60 day window and consider another one.

If when the House of Representatives convenes on 3 January, 2027 it has a Democrat majority, President Trump will quickly be facing impeachment proceedings.

And while it is true that a special majority is needed in the Senate to impeach, there is one critical unknown factor: to what extent did the people who were involved in arranging for Mr. Trump's blind trust's fantastic stock trades feel compelled to keep records squirreled away with an eye that these records might be their "keep out of jail" card one day.

To be clear: if nothing illegal was going on in the activity of the blind trust then this point is mute.

But if something was going on, this kind of evidence is probably the only evidence which could compel some Republican senators to also vote for impeachment.

And that would create a very tight window: from the moment that Mr. Trump is aware that he is being betrayed to Mr. Vance becoming president.

That would be time for Mr. Trump to make history and time for Israel to try to get something done before there's someone else sitting in the White House.

We cannot discuss this with CENTCOM yet.

But it Is only prudent for us to prepare a plan of action against Iran which fits into such a tight window.

So that if, and that is a huge if, the ball drops for a highly certain impeachment, we have everything thought out.

Because there most certainly won't be enough time to come up with a plan if we wait.

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Welcome to Chelm: A terrorist who infiltrates Israel from Lebanon and opens fire is apparently not considered an act requiring a response
Dr. Aaron Lerner 9 June 2026

Today (Tuesday, 9.6.26), a Hezbollah terrorist infiltrated from Lebanon into Israeli territory near Margaliot and opened fire.

If the terrorist had fired at Israel from inside Lebanon, according to the policy, we would have fired at Beirut.

But since the terrorist fired only after infiltrating into Israeli territory, apparently nothing will be done.

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ברוכים הבאים לחלם: מחבל שחודר לישראל מלבנון ויורה לא נחשב למעשה שמוביל לתגובה

היום (יום שלישי, 9.6.26) מחבל חיזבאללה חדר מלבנון לשטח ישראל סמוך למרגליות ופתח באש.

אם המחבל היה יורה לעבר ישראל מתוך לבנון, לפי המדיניות, היינו יורים לעבר הדאחייה.

אבל מכיוון שהמחבל ירה לאחר שחדר לשטח ישראל, כנראה שלא ייעשה דבר.

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Massive Israeli attack on Hezbollah locations in Beirut and elsewhere not in South Lebanon in response to Iranian attack on Israel?

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Weekly Commentary: Co-Production But With Full Israeli Indigenous Production
Dr. Aaron Lerner 5 June 2026
https://t.co/W7nEZSpQVB

Section 224 of the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 (NDAA), titled the “United States-Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative,” calls for the co-production of military equipment with the idea that the United States would benefit from the integration of Israeli technology in American equipment while Israel would gain from co-producing equipment.

At the risk of offending my American readers, I am compelled to warn that we Israelis must always keep in mind the very real possibility that supplies of military equipment made in the USA may be either halted outright or intentionally postponed in the future.

I would go so far as to suggest that when President Trump was recently cursing out our Prime Minister for refusing to act against Israel’s critical interests, if Netanyahu had ultimately stood his ground, it is within the range of possibilities that a furious President might have responded with action relating to weapons supplies.

So while it could most certainly serve our joint interests to co-produce military equipment with the United States, we need full Israeli indigenous production as well.

That’s not a set of tooling stored in an Israeli warehouse but actual serial production of the complete product in Israel.

We need a domestic team with the experience which can only be gained by engaging in production.

And we cannot find ourselves unable to complete production because the Americans aren’t shipping some widget which only they have been making in the co-production.

I appreciate that this approach may be less efficient.

But we simply cannot afford arrangements based on the assumption that everything will be OK.

In fact, I would go so far as to suggest that the temptation to halt supplies to Israel would be substantially lower if the only result of such a sanction is lost American jobs as the Israeli production line covers the loss of American supplies by changing its export:domestic ratio.