Failztastic

Consilience

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

Have you ever heard about "Universe 25"?

John B. Calhoun designed a setting where natural causes of death should not happen for mices.

As always there are spurious variables, but the environment allowed mices to not worry about food, predators, severe weather, etc.

What happens to mices when they shall not worry about the stressors they have been conditioned to face in their natural habitat ? I will detail some keypoints that have been observed during the experiment.

The first offsprings were born 104 days after the experiment began. From there, there's been an exponential growth of the mice population. That is up until a point (end of Phase C).

Here is a graphic of the mice population. At the end of "Phase B" there is 3x more young mices than old mices - it has to be highlighted that in nature there is always more adult mices than young ones.

In Universe 25, the young mices don't all find a place in this community (usually, they replace the missing roles - where adults have been dying). The ratio young/old mice is such that here it's not possible - as old mices keep their status.

The males that failed to get a role withdraw from the community. They wander in the center of the setting. They initiate less interaction than supposed. The territorial males don't attack those withdrawed mice as they're not a threat : but within them there is demonstration of agressive behaviours. When one get bited, it seems to take the hit without fighting. It is kind of extremely catatonic.

Females that withdrawed from the group are looking for unused "rooms".

As time goes by, the territorial males become less and less interested in defending their places. The pregnant females kind of take their roles - the agression is extended to their own litters. Which lead the young ones to leave the nest prematurely. Their social and affective development is altered and they won't be able to socialize as they should.

From the 560th day, the increase in population is over. Deaths gonna exceed the births. But the population is really dense in the setting - way more than it would be in their natural habitat. It leads the social interactions to be shorter and less intense.

The maturation of courting behaviors, maternity and agression is incomplete due to improprer socialization. There is no reproduction.
Mice that are born in the late phase of this setting are just able to survive but not to reproduce.

Eventually they go extinct.

Why do I love this experiment ? Because it seems we can do a parallel with our society. Every year statistics show that around the world the births are falling. We hear many theories for this.

What if the reason is just that our society offer an abundance of resources which for some obscure reason cut the elicitation of reproduction of the specy ? Also, according to this study, it sounds more like a genetic embedded mechanism than one influenced by beliefs of our cultures.

What if the reason we go extinct isn't the usual threat we hear all day long : climate change, 3rd world war, and so on - but is actually just the abundance of resources and comfort ?

[Wyckoff Insider @Wyckoff_Insider]

BTC is actually simple here.

Every cycle makes people believe in a new “obvious” outcome.

2017 taught everyone altcoins were the play. ICOs, random coins, crazy multiples. So next cycle people came in thinking they just had to buy alts early.

Market punished that.

Then BTC became the clean trade. The safe trade. The institutional trade. Now everyone says, “If BTC drops lower, I’m going all in on Bitcoin.”

Why?

Because last cycle BTC won.

That belief is liquidity.

So now the game is simple. You either accumulate in this range, or if market structure breaks to the downside, you are not just getting a better entry. You are creating a much bigger problem.

Too much overhanging supply. Too many trapped buyers. Too many people waiting to sell break even.

That needs time.

Not one wick. Not one panic day. Not one fake capitulation candle.

Real time capitulation.

A long accumulation range where people get bored, lose conviction, stop posting, stop caring, and finally let go of their positions.

That is how markets reset.

These are the rules.

I did not make them.

I just play them.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

While this bear market feels different, Bitcoin is still tracking the average of prior midterm-year bear markets.

Structurally, the market typically gets one final countertrend rally sometime in the summer before the final low occurs later in the year.

[skumm🧊 @skumWgmi]

Suddenly, you're 27.

You make your coffee, rush to work, come home around 7, and you're too tired to do anything except eat, scroll on your phone, and pass out.

Then you wake up, and do it all again.

And when Friday comes, maybe you go out, or maybe you're just too tired. Then, out of nowhere, it hits you.

How did everything pass by so quickly?

You don't even feel 27.

You still feel like that 17 year old kid who thought they had all the time in the world.

But somehow, 10 years just disappeared. And you start missing the past. The feeling of being young, excited, and clueless.

But then you realize, one day, you'll miss this, too.

Being 25, being confused, being tired, but still trying.

So maybe the trick is to slow down a bit and actually live this chapter before it also becomes just another memory.

The point is no matter age you are, you'll miss these days. Life gets busy sometimes and it's always a good time to stop and smell the roses.

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

@TraderDune Without even reading you can spot the ai post when there is a text made of 12 sentences containing at most 10 words, and that there is 2x « enter » between each sentence (so the brain can relax after reading 8 words 😅).

The worst is the made up stories by AI.

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

Psychotic thoughts lead the subject to step outside the cognitive models considered normal — that is, those shared by large groups of individuals. Psychosis therefore drives the person to become an outlier, at the extremities of the success-failure spectrum. While those most severely impaired in their functioning often experience extreme psychotic states, I am convinced that the individuals who have contributed most to the advancement of humanity possess a subtle blend of exceptional abilities and a measure of psychosis that enabled them to resist the injunctions of the norm.

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

There's two ends on the motivation's spectrum : mania, where you can't restrain from initiating action (thoughts, behaviors) and catatonia where you can't initiate it (deprived of thought, can't even get up).

The spectrum would be like this : catatonia --> depression --> neutral <-- hypomania <-- mania.

Psychiatry got more knowledge and intervention for mania than for catatonia, altough it has been observed quite early in the history of psychiatry.

It seems that for humans it's easier to visualize the extreme excess of motivation than the extreme lack of it. Because people with mania got way more in our attentional field.

Now the question is, for metabolism that tend toward mild or severe catatonia, how do you elicit motivation in them ?

The question of eliciting motivation, with the current and coming use of technology, is and will be one of the most important question for hundred millions of metabolism on earth (by metabolism I mean it depends on how your genotype reacts to the environmental inputs).

[Matt Shumer @mattshumer_]

https://t.co/ivXRKXJvQg

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

@swisscryptocat Kind of, x26 looks better than x13.

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

To introspect on one’s cognition is to learn where our biases are.

Once you become aware : you can redirect your attention elsewhere. You can expand your horizon.

The training of attention processes is the best way to overcome many limitations. It changes how your interface computes information, and therefore how you metabolize it. It quite literally impacts your organism.

This type of therapy is clearly under rated compared to the impact it can have.

[fabervaale.official @fabervaaleeng]

People once believed thunder was Zeus because that was the only explanation they could understand.

The real physics was too complex.

Markets are identical.

Price doesn’t move because of gods, magic, or secret cabals.
It moves because of a violent, multi-layered microstructure.

The truth?

• Liquidity topology shifting every millisecond
• Aggressive vs passive orderflow imbalances
• Dealer hedging (delta/gamma)
• Stop cascades & liquidations
• ETF/Futures/arb flows
• Dark-pool activity
• Latency wars & HFT micro-structure tactics

People don’t buy truth.

They buy the explanation that fits the size of their mind,
not the size of reality.

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

Thanks for the video 👍
I like to keep heuristics in mind. The highly valuable one I will keep in mind after watching this is : look to buy in a ranging discount. Look to sell in a ranging premium. Don’t act much during brutal PA.

This is not random that value happens on boring price action.

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

Bear market targets full commentary.

In this video you'll find all my thoughts, reasoning process, analysis and what to look for.

I invite you to watch it till the end because there are some important nuances that should be not skipped.

Of course, with my classic 🇮🇹 accent that adds some funny sauce.

Hope you'll appreciate it and, as always, thanks to the ones who support my work.

[Jay Alto @theJayAlto]

you pity the moth confusing a lamp for the moon, yet here you are confusing a screen for the world

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

One thing I like about markets, despite how painful it can be emotionally wise, is how it reminds us that life just doesn't care about our expectations : all that matters is our capacity to adapt.

[Trader Dune @TraderDune]

There is always one word, I specifically have always used in my HTF analyses when forecasting powerful reversals: "simultaneously"

It is not by random, it's the single most important aspect of a whale synced reversal. Every single powerful reversal has had it, which is why I was able to forecast them publicly on X.

Multiple key levels being taken at any point is not equivalent to "powerful majors confluence". They have to hit and mitigate the levels together. That is what "simultaneously" means by definition. It's digital footprint/evidence that whales are executing orders in sync (that's how insiders operate).

On this spiral downwards, many key levels failed. 72k failed, 7.4% failed and so on... They all had something in common; they did not hit simultaneously with other key levels on majors. Until that occurs, randomly throwing large size on longs just because of discount key level prices is not logical nor rational.

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

As job competition intensifies, employers increasingly demand postgraduate training to differentiate themselves from other candidates. Unfortunately, there is often no strong correlation between acquiring additional training and improved skills. The ability to learn through practical experience and self-study is just as effective, if not more so. All the time invested in standing out from other candidates thus becomes an incredible waste of time: the time spent to improve one's CV is not linked to greater effectiveness. Theory cannot replace practice in most cases.

More generally, our society increasingly rewards noise rather than substance. This creates a cascade of harmful incentives in today's professional world.

For example, I see a negative correlation between the increase in resources in the field of HR, management committees and the decrease in well-being in the workplace.

I could also mention the democratization of therapies, which correlates with a progressive decline in functionality within the population.

[CryptoChase @CryptoChase02]

$USDT.D

Currently waiting for USDT.D to hit simultaneously with the other major charts [BTC, ETH and ETH/BTC], but if your HTF KLs on your altcoins are hitting without the major confluence, don't be afraid to scale in. We're not here to time the exact bottom. The R/R is good enough to accept already, as price action is at range lows on altcoins.

Price action is tapping into its 2M OB with the 1W BB inside. It may wick outside the 1W BB, but it still may be respected, so keep an eye on the weekly candle closures. There is also a 1W OB [Supply] inside the 2M OB, which may get tapped.

Talking about macro targets now. Firstly, I'm going to say that the probability of the 1M BB [~3.3%] to hit has DECREASED due to the market structure on the HTF. It's important not to forget that it's likely that we are entering into a 🐻 market too. So don't have very high targets, be reasonable.

We saw a monthly candle closure above the KSH [6.76%]. Once we see a HTF BOS, we look for a pullback into a KL, then continuation in the same direction of the breakout. The same rule applies. Do not let your emotions get in the way of your rational thinking!

Instead, I'm looking at the other 1M BB [~4.82%] or the demand level just below it [~4.44%]. I haven't placed my Fib levels just yet, but it looks like it may align with the 0.786 Fib level [Predictive Fib].

I'm not saying that it won't hit, but when the MBB [3.3%] hits someday, we will look to close our long positions and open short positions.

Nobody knows where price action will reverse.

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

Safe haven or systemic risk incoming ?

[zoomer @zoomerfied]

[ ZOOMER ]

TETHER HAS AMASSED THE LARGEST KNOWN HOARD OF GOLD OUTSIDE OF NATION STATES AND BANKS, EQUALING OVER 140 TONS, WHICH IT KEEPS SAFE IN A NUCLEAR BUNKER: BBG

[Failztastic @IMasudes]

This is a systemic problem in the field that I find astonishing. Almost every mesurable outcomes that correlate with mental illness is increasing steadily and predictably for about 2 decades. Yet, it seems that for many professionals the solution to that is to do more of what have been done the past 2 decades ? I don't get it.
Every time I spoke about this : what I've seen in my workplace or to people in the field is that they didn't seem to care much. They don't question what they're doing.

You see that not only about medication but also psychotherapy. It's been well documented that therapists often reinforce cluster B personalities for exemple. Or that they can't see if a patient with MDD gets actually worse.